CONMEBOL Libertadores predictions

1 match ahead, from 28 November, each with the model's win / draw / win split and most likely score. The clearest favourite: Palmeiras, 69% against Estudiantes La Plata. How the model works.

Saturday 28 November — 1 match

20:00 UTC Palmeiras vs Estudiantes La Plata — model 69% / 21% / 10%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.45 · 4.76 · 10.00. One-sided: Palmeiras

Last round: the model's hits and misses

22–23 October: the model called the result of 0 of 2 matches.

Palmeiras 0–1 Fluminense — the model said 57% / 26% / 17%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Flamengo 0–0 Estudiantes La Plata — the model said 66% / 22% / 12%, most likely 2-0: result missed.

CONMEBOL Libertadores so far

Final

Palmeiras v Estudiantes La Plata, 28 November.

Semi-finals

Palmeiras went through against Fluminense, on penalties after 2–2.
Estudiantes La Plata went through against Flamengo, on penalties after 0–0.

Quarter-finals

Fluminense went through against Platense, 3–2 on aggregate.
Palmeiras went through against LDU de Quito, on penalties after 3–3.
Estudiantes La Plata went through against Corinthians, 2–1 on aggregate.
Flamengo went through against Independiente del Valle, 3–1 on aggregate.

Leading scorers: A. Arce (Independiente Rivadavia) 9 goals, C. González (Independiente del Valle) 7 goals, Bruno Henrique (Flamengo) 5 goals.