Austria 1–0 Rep. Of Ireland: the model called the exact score
Austria 1–0 Rep. Of Ireland finished with Austria winning. Our model had called it exactly: it published 1-0, a scoreline it rated at 10%.
More →Everything we write, newest first: previews of the matches ahead and reviews of the ones just played, each built from the model's own probabilities and expected goals, and longer pieces on what the numbers do and do not say. Kept current rather than written once: title race and relegation predictions, and the model's full track record. How the probabilities are produced, including where the model is known to be wrong, is in the methodology.
Long reads written once from our own data: what the numbers show across whole leagues and seasons, and where our model gets it wrong.
Austria 1–0 Rep. Of Ireland finished with Austria winning. Our model had called it exactly: it published 1-0, a scoreline it rated at 10%.
More →Portugal 1–4 Denmark finished with Denmark winning. The model got this one wrong. It leaned to Portugal at 45%, and rated the actual result at 28%.
More →Denmark host Norway in a game our model cannot separate: 36% for the home side, 27% for the draw and 37% for the visitors.
More →Our model leans to Poland here, but not by much: 49% (fair odds 2.04) against 26% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-0, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →Our model leans to Portugal here, but not by much: 52% (fair odds 1.92) against 27% for the draw. Published scoreline: 0-1, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →Internacional de Bogota 0–2 Santa Fe finished with Santa Fe winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 43%, though it expected 0-1 rather than 0–2.
More →Kosovo 0–0 Israel finished with a draw. The model got this one wrong. It leaned to Kosovo at 41%, and rated the actual result at 31%.
More →Norway 3–1 Wales finished with Norway winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 51%, though it expected 1-0 rather than 3–1.
More →Our model leans to Vasco da Gama here, but not by much: 43% (fair odds 2.33) against 26% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-2, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →Club Queretaro host Monterrey in a game our model cannot separate: 38% for the home side, 27% for the draw and 35% for the visitors.
More →Our model leans to Mirassol here, but not by much: 40% (fair odds 2.50) against 30% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-0, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →Our model leans to Germany here, but not by much: 48% (fair odds 2.08) against 26% for the draw. Published scoreline: 2-1, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →Our model leans to Greece here, but not by much: 41% (fair odds 2.44) against 28% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-0, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →Switzerland go into this one as a clear favourite by our numbers: 63%, which is fair odds of 1.59. Our published scoreline is 2-0 — the likeliest exact score within that result rather than across the whole match — and the model gives Scotland 15% to win outright.
More →Our model has a prediction for 87 matches this weekend (14-15 November), across 15 competitions. It is surest about Finland: 77% to beat San Marino, most likely 2-0. 11 matches are within three points either way, games where the draw is a real outcome.
More →Llaneros 0–0 Chico finished with a draw. The model got this one wrong. It leaned to Llaneros at 51%, and rated the actual result at 29%.
More →Netherlands 7–0 Greece finished with Netherlands winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 47%, though it expected 2-1 rather than 7–0.
More →Slovenia 0–0 Switzerland finished with a draw. The model got this one wrong. It leaned to Switzerland at 47%, and rated the actual result at 29%.
More →Belgium host Italy in a game our model cannot separate: 35% for the home side, 29% for the draw and 36% for the visitors.
More →France go into this one as a clear favourite by our numbers: 61%, which is fair odds of 1.64. Our published scoreline is 2-1 — the likeliest exact score within that result rather than across the whole match — and the model gives Türkiye 18% to win outright.
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