Title chances at a glance
The model's chance of finishing first, for the two likeliest champions in each of Europe's big five leagues:
- Premier League (England): Arsenal 62.6%, Brighton 16.5%
- La Liga (Spain): Barcelona 50.3%, Real Madrid 43.5%
- Serie A (Italy): Inter 44.5%, AS Roma 42.6%
- Bundesliga (Germany): Bayern München 73.4%, Borussia Dortmund 17.4%
- Ligue 1 (France): Paris Saint Germain 72.9%, Lille 10.4%
Every league we project, led by what changed. Each figure is the club's chance of finishing in that position at the end of the phase being played — a regular season, a conference, an Apertura — from playing out every remaining match of that phase 10,000 times. In the club leagues those runs come in a hundred batches, each with every team's rating redrawn around its estimate, because a rating is not a certainty. Where the phase is not the whole competition the row says so, because topping a conference and winning a league are different achievements. Not a form guide, and not a prediction of the next round. Movement is measured against each competition's last reading whose numbers actually moved, which is why the dates differ: a projection that did not change is carried forward rather than restamped, and one taken over a different phase, or made by an earlier method, is not subtracted at all. A statistical estimate, not betting advice.
The races that moved
- Alianza Lima — chance of finishing top up 100, to 100%, in the Primera División (Peru) (the Primera Division: Tabla Anual). Measured since 2026-11-14.
- Sport Huancayo — chance of finishing top down 52, to 0%, in the Primera División (Peru) (the Primera Division: Tabla Anual). Measured since 2026-11-14.
- Heracles — chance of finishing top up 11.2, to 91.7%, in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) (the Eerste Divisie: Regular season). Measured since 2026-11-14.
- Raith Rovers — chance of finishing top down 8.7, to 8.8%, in the Championship (Scotland) (the regular season). Measured since 2026-11-14.
- Salford City — chance of finishing top down 8.2, to 29%, in the League Two (England) (the regular season). Measured since 2026-11-14.
- Almere City FC — chance of finishing top down 8.1, to 5.2%, in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) (the Eerste Divisie: Regular season). Measured since 2026-11-14.
- Almeria — chance of finishing top up 6.5, to 30.3%, in the Segunda División (Spain) (the regular season). Measured since 2026-11-14.
- Partick — chance of finishing top up 5.9, to 50.7%, in the Championship (Scotland) (the regular season). Measured since 2026-11-14.
- Grimsby — chance of finishing top up 5.8, to 12.1%, in the League Two (England) (the regular season). Measured since 2026-11-14.
- Castellón — chance of finishing top down 5.2, to 52.3%, in the Segunda División (Spain) (the regular season). Measured since 2026-11-14.
And at the other end
Bottom-three chances, which move on different weeks than the title does. These are final positions, not relegation: what a position costs depends on each country's playoffs and rules, and a position does not. At most two clubs per competition, so one league's dramatic weekend does not fill the list.
- UTC Cajamarca — bottom-three risk down 92.4, to 7.6%, in the Primera División (Peru) (the Primera Division: Tabla Anual). Measured since 2026-11-14.
- ADT — bottom-three risk down 80.7, to 0%, in the Primera División (Peru) (the Primera Division: Tabla Anual). Measured since 2026-11-14.
- Ayr Utd — bottom-three risk down 15.7, to 40.7%, in the Championship (Scotland) (the regular season). Measured since 2026-11-14.
- Wigan — bottom-three risk down 14.3, to 23.6%, in the League One (England) (the regular season). Measured since 2026-11-14.
- Rochdale — bottom-three risk up 10.7, to 58.1%, in the League Two (England) (the regular season). Measured since 2026-11-14.
- Jong Utrecht — bottom-three risk up 10.2, to 49.2%, in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) (the Eerste Divisie: Regular season). Measured since 2026-11-14.
- Den Bosch — bottom-three risk down 9.6, to 10.1%, in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) (the Eerste Divisie: Regular season). Measured since 2026-11-14.
- Barnsley — bottom-three risk up 9.5, to 42.2%, in the League One (England) (the regular season). Measured since 2026-11-14.
Every place, every club
Where each club finishes, as a chance, in the leagues we follow most closely: first, each zone the league's table marks — European places, promotion — and relegation. The biggest leagues are open; tap any other to expand it. Every other league's chances are on its own page.
Premier League (England)Arsenal 62.6% to finish first
| # | Club | 1st | Top 4 | Top 5 | 18–20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 62.6 | 98.4 | 99.4 | |
| 2 |  Brighton | 16.5 | 89.4 | 94.9 | |
| 3 |  Manchester City | 15.3 | 83.8 | 91.5 | |
| 4 |  Liverpool | 4.4 | 63.7 | 78.8 | |
| 5 |  Aston Villa | 0.3 | 17.5 | 33.1 | 0.8 |
| 6 |  Chelsea | 0.2 | 11.4 | 22.0 | 1.2 |
| 7 |  Bournemouth | 0.3 | 11.3 | 21.9 | 1.1 |
| 8 |  Brentford | 0.3 | 10.0 | 21.1 | 2.9 |
| 9 |  Leeds | 3.0 | 8.4 | 4.1 | |
| 10 |  Everton | 0.1 | 4.2 | 9.0 | 5.5 |
| 11 |  Manchester United | 3.8 | 8.7 | 5.9 | |
| 12 |  Nottingham Forest | 1.1 | 3.2 | 13.0 | |
| 13 |  Hull City | 0.8 | 2.5 | 13.8 | |
| 14 |  Tottenham | 0.4 | 1.1 | 15.7 | |
| 15 |  Newcastle | 0.7 | 2.4 | 21.9 | |
| 16 |  Fulham | 0.2 | 0.9 | 17.9 | |
| 17 |  Ipswich | 0.3 | 0.9 | 28.7 | |
| 18 |  Sunderland | 0.2 | 41.7 | ||
| 19 |  Coventry | 0.1 | 0.2 | 51.1 | |
| 20 |  Crystal Palace | 75.0 |
- Top 4 = Champions League
- Top 5 = Europa League
- 18–20 = Relegation
Chance of each final place over 10,000 simulations of the rest of the regular season. Zones as the league's own table marks them. Empty = under 0.05%. Premier League (England) table →
La Liga (Spain)Barcelona 50.3% to finish first
| # | Club | 1st | Top 4 | Top 5 | Top 6 | 18–20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 50.3 | 99.8 | 99.9 | 99.9 | |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 43.5 | >99.9 | >99.9 | >99.9 | |
| 3 |  Atletico Madrid | 5.3 | 92.9 | 98.5 | 99.7 | |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 0.9 | 65.0 | 85.7 | 93.9 | |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 0.1 | 24.3 | 51.1 | 68.1 | 0.1 |
| 6 |  Villarreal | 11.3 | 32.4 | 53.2 | 0.5 | |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 2.9 | 11.7 | 26.7 | 1.0 | |
| 8 |  Sevilla | 1.7 | 7.5 | 18.4 | 2.8 | |
| 9 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 0.6 | 3.1 | 7.8 | 6.8 | |
| 10 |  Levante | 0.2 | 1.6 | 6.1 | 10.1 | |
| 11 |  Elche | 0.3 | 1.9 | 5.7 | 11.7 | |
| 12 |  Celta Vigo | 0.3 | 1.4 | 4.7 | 10.3 | |
| 13 |  Rayo Vallecano | 0.2 | 1.4 | 4.0 | 13.3 | |
| 14 |  Espanyol | 0.1 | 0.9 | 3.3 | 12.1 | |
| 15 |  Alaves | 0.2 | 1.5 | 4.2 | 14.7 | |
| 16 |  Valencia | 0.4 | 1.3 | 30.7 | ||
| 17 |  Racing Santander | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 31.4 | |
| 18 |  Getafe | 0.2 | 0.8 | 28.5 | ||
| 19 |  Osasuna | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 38.5 | |
| 20 |  Malaga | 88.1 |
- Top 4 = Champions League
- Top 5 = Europa League
- Top 6 = Conference League qualifying
- 18–20 = Relegation
Chance of each final place over 10,000 simulations of the rest of the regular season. Zones as the league's own table marks them. Empty = under 0.05%. La Liga (Spain) table →
Serie A (Italy)Inter 44.5% to finish first
| # | Club | 1st | Top 4 | Top 5 | Top 6 | 18–20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Inter | 44.5 | 95.8 | 98.2 | 99.4 | |
| 2 |  AS Roma | 42.6 | 94.6 | 97.8 | 99.1 | |
| 3 |  Lazio | 7.0 | 60.6 | 75.9 | 86.6 | |
| 4 |  Como | 2.4 | 51.7 | 68.5 | 81.1 | |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 2.4 | 44.0 | 60.6 | 74.3 | |
| 6 |  Napoli | 0.3 | 17.5 | 32.3 | 48.1 | |
| 7 |  Juventus | 0.6 | 16.1 | 29.4 | 45.2 | |
| 8 |  Frosinone | 0.3 | 13.4 | 23.0 | 36.1 | |
| 9 |  Bologna | 2.6 | 6.0 | 12.1 | 0.4 | |
| 10 |  Atalanta | 2.6 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 0.7 | |
| 11 |  Fiorentina | 0.5 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 6.1 | |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 4.4 | |
| 13 |  Genoa | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 6.0 | |
| 14 |  Torino | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 7.4 | |
| 15 |  Sassuolo | 0.2 | 26.0 | |||
| 16 |  Parma | 37.7 | ||||
| 17 |  Monza | 0.1 | 44.8 | |||
| 18 |  Lecce | 46.4 | ||||
| 19 |  Udinese | 55.6 | ||||
| 20 |  Venezia | 64.5 |
- Top 4 = Champions League
- Top 5 = Europa League
- Top 6 = Play-offs
- 18–20 = Relegation
Chance of each final place over 10,000 simulations of the rest of the regular season. Zones as the league's own table marks them. Empty = under 0.05%. Serie A (Italy) table →
Bundesliga (Germany)Bayern München 73.4% to finish first
| # | Club | 1st | Top 4 | Top 6 | 16th | 17–18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 73.4 | 99.5 | >99.9 | ||
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 17.4 | 90.1 | 98.3 | ||
| 3 |  RB Leipzig | 5.3 | 73.5 | 92.5 | ||
| 4 |  SC Freiburg | 2.3 | 55.8 | 85.2 | ||
| 5 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 1.4 | 43.1 | 77.6 | 0.1 | |
| 6 |  VfB Stuttgart | 0.1 | 16.9 | 46.0 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| 7 |  Werder Bremen | 5.7 | 24.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | |
| 8 |  SV Elversberg | 5.3 | 23.9 | 1.5 | 1.7 | |
| 9 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 4.5 | 17.8 | 2.5 | 1.6 | |
| 10 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 2.2 | 11.7 | 3.2 | 3.4 | |
| 11 |  FC Augsburg | 2.0 | 10.7 | 4.2 | 5.1 | |
| 12 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 1.1 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 8.3 | |
| 13 |  Hamburger SV | 0.1 | 2.1 | 10.7 | 10.9 | |
| 14 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 10.6 | 14.6 | |
| 15 |  1. FC Köln | 0.1 | 0.9 | 14.6 | 27.6 | |
| 16 |  FC Schalke 04 | 0.2 | 15.6 | 34.0 | ||
| 17 |  Union Berlin | 0.3 | 14.9 | 37.9 | ||
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 0.1 | 14.0 | 53.4 |
- Top 4 = Champions League
- Top 6 = Qualifying
- 16th = Relegation play-offs
- 17–18 = Relegation
Chance of each final place over 10,000 simulations of the rest of the regular season. Zones as the league's own table marks them. Empty = under 0.05%. Bundesliga (Germany) table →
Ligue 1 (France)Paris Saint Germain 72.9% to finish first
| # | Club | 1st | Top 3 | Top 5 | 16th | 17–18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 72.9 | 95.3 | 98.9 | ||
| 2 |  Lille | 10.4 | 57.3 | 82.8 | ||
| 3 |  Paris FC | 8.9 | 52.4 | 78.8 | ||
| 4 |  Marseille | 4.6 | 36.5 | 65.6 | ||
| 5 |  Monaco | 1.5 | 19.9 | 46.8 | 0.1 | |
| 6 |  Lyon | 0.6 | 12.4 | 35.6 | 0.1 | |
| 7 |  Lens | 0.4 | 7.2 | 23.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 8 |  Rennes | 0.3 | 7.8 | 22.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 9 |  Nice | 0.2 | 3.5 | 12.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 10 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 0.2 | 4.4 | 14.6 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 11 |  Toulouse | 0.1 | 1.5 | 7.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 12 |  Lorient | 1.3 | 6.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 0.6 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 2.6 | |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 0.2 | 19.6 | 19.3 | ||
| 15 |  Le Mans | 0.2 | 17.0 | 23.7 | ||
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 0.1 | 21.2 | 27.6 | ||
| 17 |  Angers | 18.3 | 56.3 | |||
| 18 |  Le Havre | 14.5 | 67.8 |
- Top 3 = Champions League
- Top 5 = Europa League
- 16th = Relegation play-offs
- 17–18 = Relegation
Chance of each final place over 10,000 simulations of the rest of the regular season. Zones as the league's own table marks them. Empty = under 0.05%. Ligue 1 (France) table →
Championship (England)Birmingham 21.8% to finish first
| # | Club | 1st | Top 2 | Top 8 | 22–24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Birmingham | 21.8 | 38.8 | 89.8 | |
| 2 |  Middlesbrough | 21.3 | 35.8 | 88.3 | |
| 3 |  Southampton | 18.7 | 34.6 | 86.0 | |
| 4 |  West Ham | 10.7 | 22.6 | 75.8 | |
| 5 |  Wolves | 10.3 | 21.4 | 74.4 | |
| 6 |  West Brom | 5.1 | 13.7 | 71.2 | |
| 7 |  Norwich | 3.6 | 10.5 | 63.3 | |
| 8 |  Stoke City | 3.6 | 8.6 | 58.6 | 0.1 |
| 9 |  Swansea | 1.9 | 5.0 | 47.9 | 0.1 |
| 10 |  QPR | 0.4 | 1.7 | 29.5 | 0.4 |
| 11 |  Sheffield Utd | 0.6 | 1.8 | 26.0 | 0.9 |
| 12 |  Portsmouth | 0.7 | 1.7 | 20.9 | 1.8 |
| 13 |  Cardiff | 0.4 | 1.1 | 17.5 | 2.5 |
| 14 |  Millwall | 0.7 | 1.6 | 16.6 | 2.6 |
| 15 |  Blackburn | 0.2 | 0.7 | 13.5 | 3.1 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 0.2 | 0.6 | 15.2 | 3.5 |
| 17 |  Bristol City | 2.1 | 18.9 | ||
| 18 |  Bolton | 1.6 | 18.2 | ||
| 19 |  Lincoln | 0.7 | 30.0 | ||
| 20 |  Charlton | 0.5 | 29.2 | ||
| 21 |  Burnley | 0.7 | 31.7 | ||
| 22 |  Watford | 0.3 | 34.8 | ||
| 23 |  Derby | 0.2 | 46.8 | ||
| 24 |  Preston | 75.5 |
- Top 2 = Promotion to Premier League
- Top 8 = Championship play-offs
- 22–24 = Relegation
Chance of each final place over 10,000 simulations of the rest of the regular season. Zones as the league's own table marks them. Empty = under 0.05%. Championship (England) table →
Eredivisie (Netherlands)PSV Eindhoven 53% to finish first
| # | Club | 1st | Top 2 | Top 3 | Top 7 | 16–18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSV Eindhoven | 53.0 | 76.8 | 88.7 | 99.8 | |
| 2 |  Twente | 15.6 | 39.3 | 63.4 | 99.2 | |
| 3 |  Feyenoord | 15.3 | 37.7 | 59.4 | 99.1 | |
| 4 |  Ajax | 13.7 | 34.5 | 57.4 | 98.7 | |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 1.8 | 7.9 | 19.4 | 91.2 | |
| 6 |  Heerenveen | 0.6 | 3.3 | 9.4 | 80.4 | 0.1 |
| 7 |  Fortuna Sittard | 0.3 | 1.1 | 35.2 | 1.0 | |
| 8 |  Groningen | 0.1 | 0.5 | 25.7 | 2.6 | |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 0.1 | 0.4 | 23.8 | 4.0 | |
| 10 |  NEC Nijmegen | 0.1 | 0.4 | 20.0 | 4.1 | |
| 11 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 8.7 | 10.0 | |||
| 12 |  Telstar | 7.0 | 13.4 | |||
| 13 |  Utrecht | 5.0 | 20.6 | |||
| 14 |  ADO Den Haag | 2.2 | 22.6 | |||
| 15 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 1.5 | 31.9 | |||
| 16 |  PEC Zwolle | 1.8 | 41.0 | |||
| 17 |  Excelsior | 0.8 | 49.7 | |||
| 18 |  Willem II | 99.3 |
- Top 2 = Champions League qualifying
- Top 3 = Europa League qualifying
- Top 7 = Conference League play-offs
- 16–18 = Relegation
Chance of each final place over 10,000 simulations of the rest of the regular season. Zones as the league's own table marks them. Empty = under 0.05%. Eredivisie (Netherlands) table →
Primeira Liga (Portugal)FC Porto 69.3% to finish first
| # | Club | 1st | Top 2 | Top 3 | Top 4 | 16–18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 69.3 | 93.7 | 99.7 | 99.9 | |
| 2 |  Benfica | 22.1 | 71.5 | 96.5 | 99.2 | |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 8.5 | 33.4 | 87.1 | 95.6 | |
| 4 |  SC Braga | 0.5 | 5.1 | 29.2 | ||
| 5 |  Santa Clara | 0.3 | 4.4 | 24.0 | ||
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 0.3 | 3.1 | 19.3 | ||
| 7 |  Arouca | 0.2 | 2.5 | 15.4 | 0.1 | |
| 8 |  GIL Vicente | 0.1 | 1.2 | 9.5 | 0.1 | |
| 9 |  Famalicao | 0.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 | ||
| 10 |  Alverca | 0.1 | 2.0 | 3.4 | ||
| 11 |  Moreirense | 0.1 | 1.2 | 4.9 | ||
| 12 |  Vitória SC | 1.0 | 8.8 | |||
| 13 |  Estrela | 0.2 | 17.6 | |||
| 14 |  Nacional | 0.1 | 22.4 | |||
| 15 |  Casa Pia | 50.4 | ||||
| 16 |  Maritimo | 54.0 | ||||
| 17 |  Rio Ave | 62.3 | ||||
| 18 |  Estoril | 74.7 |
- Top 2 = Champions League
- Top 3 = Champions League qualifying
- Top 4 = Europa League qualifying
- 16–18 = Relegation
Chance of each final place over 10,000 simulations of the rest of the regular season. Zones as the league's own table marks them. Empty = under 0.05%. Primeira Liga (Portugal) table →
Süper Lig (Turkey)Galatasaray 59.1% to finish first
| # | Club | 1st | Top 2 | Top 3 | Top 4 | 16–18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Galatasaray | 59.1 | 80.8 | 91.0 | 96.4 | |
| 2 |  Trabzonspor | 19.4 | 47.1 | 69.1 | 83.8 | |
| 3 |  Fenerbahçe | 10.6 | 32.2 | 55.4 | 73.1 | |
| 4 |  Beşiktaş | 5.9 | 18.9 | 36.6 | 56.9 | |
| 5 |  Amed | 4.4 | 17.0 | 34.9 | 56.4 | |
| 6 |  Başakşehir | 0.4 | 2.5 | 7.7 | 18.0 | |
| 7 |  Kasımpaşa | 0.2 | 1.1 | 3.5 | 9.0 | 0.2 |
| 8 |  Kocaelispor | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 2.8 | 0.6 |
| 9 |  Göztepe | 0.1 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | |
| 10 |  Çorum FK | 0.1 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 2.4 | |
| 11 |  Rizespor | 0.2 | 9.4 | |||
| 12 |  Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 0.1 | 12.1 | |||
| 13 |  Erzurumspor FK | 17.5 | ||||
| 14 |  Alanyaspor | 27.3 | ||||
| 15 |  Konyaspor | 26.3 | ||||
| 16 |  Samsunspor | 44.2 | ||||
| 17 |  Gaziantep FK | 62.1 | ||||
| 18 |  Eyüpspor | 96.9 |
- Top 2 = Champions League qualifying
- Top 3 = Europa League qualifying
- Top 4 = Conference League qualifying
- 16–18 = Relegation
Chance of each final place over 10,000 simulations of the rest of the regular season. Zones as the league's own table marks them. Empty = under 0.05%. Süper Lig (Turkey) table →
Serie A (Brazil)Flamengo 79.2% to finish first
| # | Club | 1st | Top 4 | Top 6 | Top 12 | 17–20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 79.2 | >99.9 | >99.9 | >99.9 | |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 20.8 | >99.9 | >99.9 | >99.9 | |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 94.6 | >99.9 | >99.9 | ||
| 4 |  Fluminense | 77.2 | 98.9 | 99.9 | ||
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 14.3 | 83.8 | >99.9 | ||
| 6 |  Bahia | 13.2 | 74.7 | >99.9 | ||
| 7 |  Atletico Mineiro | 0.7 | 27.1 | >99.9 | ||
| 8 |  Santos | 0.1 | 9.6 | 99.5 | ||
| 9 |  RB Bragantino | 0.1 | 5.7 | 99.6 | ||
| 10 |  Vasco da Gama | 0.2 | 89.1 | 0.2 | ||
| 11 |  Sao Paulo | 0.2 | 89.1 | |||
| 12 |  Botafogo | 55.0 | 2.3 | |||
| 13 |  Coritiba | 17.2 | 10.5 | |||
| 14 |  Mirassol | 18.1 | 14.0 | |||
| 15 |  Internacional | 12.0 | 29.1 | |||
| 16 |  Corinthians | 10.1 | 38.5 | |||
| 17 |  Vitoria | 4.7 | 55.2 | |||
| 18 |  Gremio | 5.8 | 50.5 | |||
| 19 |  Remo | 99.9 | ||||
| 20 |  Chapecoense | >99.9 |
- Top 4 = Copa Libertadores
- Top 6 = Copa Libertadores qualifying
- Top 12 = Copa Sudamericana
- 17–20 = Relegation
Chance of each final place over 10,000 simulations of the rest of the regular season. Zones as the league's own table marks them. Empty = under 0.05%. Serie A (Brazil) table →
Liga MX (Mexico)Cruz Azul 40.7% to finish first
| # | Club | 1st | Top 8 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cruz Azul | 40.7 | >99.9 |
| 2 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 29.1 | >99.9 |
| 3 |  Club America | 30.3 | >99.9 |
| 4 |  Atlas | >99.9 | |
| 5 |  Toluca | >99.9 | |
| 6 |  Santos Laguna | 85.7 | |
| 7 |  Monterrey | 61.4 | |
| 8 |  Club Tijuana | 55.0 | |
| 9 |  Leon | 37.1 | |
| 10 |  CF Pachuca | 48.6 | |
| 11 |  Pumas UNAM | 12.4 | |
| 12 |  Club Queretaro | ||
| 13 |  Puebla | ||
| 14 |  Atletico San Luis | ||
| 15 |  Tigres UANL | ||
| 16 |  Atlante FC | ||
| 17 |  Necaxa | ||
| 18 |  FC Juarez |
- Top 8 = Liga MX play-offs
Chance of each final place over 10,000 simulations of the rest of the Apertura. Zones as the league's own table marks them. Empty = under 0.05%. Liga MX (Mexico) table →
Every race we track
69 races have played enough of their phase for a projection to mean anything. The rest appear here as they reach that point, and a league that splits into groups appears once per group — those are separate races run on separate tables.
- Premier League (England) — Arsenal 62.6% to win it, from 27 points after 10 played. Brighton is next on 16.5%.
- La Liga (Spain) — Barcelona 50.3% to win it, from 33 points after 12 played. Real Madrid is next on 43.5%.
- Serie A (Italy) — Inter 44.5% to win it, from 28 points after 11 played. AS Roma is next on 42.6%.
- Bundesliga (Germany) — Bayern München 73.4% to finish top of the regular season, from 21 points after 9 played. Borussia Dortmund is next on 17.4%.
- Ligue 1 (France) — Paris Saint Germain 72.9% to finish top of the regular season, from 23 points after 10 played. Lille is next on 10.4%.
- Championship (England) — Birmingham 21.8% to finish top of the regular season, from 29 points after 15 played. Middlesbrough is next on 21.3%.
- Eredivisie (Netherlands) — PSV Eindhoven 53% to finish top of the regular season, from 26 points after 12 played. Twente is next on 15.6%.
- Primeira Liga (Portugal) — FC Porto 69.3% to finish top of the regular season, from 33 points after 11 played. Benfica is next on 22.1%.
- Süper Lig (Turkey) — Galatasaray 59.1% to win it, from 28 points after 11 played. Trabzonspor is next on 19.4%.
- Jupiler Pro League (Belgium) — Club Brugge KV 51.2% to finish top of the regular season, from 28 points after 11 played. Union St. Gilloise is next on 39.3%.
- Premiership (Scotland) — Celtic 59.3% to finish top of the regular season, from 31 points after 13 played. Rangers is next on 38.8%.
- Super League (Switzerland) — FC Lugano 85% to finish top of the regular season, from 34 points after 13 played. BSC Young Boys is next on 9.7%.
- Bundesliga (Austria) — Rapid Vienna 62.3% to finish top of the regular season, from 33 points after 12 played. Red Bull Salzburg is next on 35.8%.
- Super League 1 (Greece) — Panathinaikos 62% to finish top of the regular season, from 27 points after 10 played. AEK Athens FC is next on 21%.
- Superliga (Denmark) — FC Midtjylland 48.2% to finish top of the regular season, from 32 points after 14 played. FC Copenhagen is next on 48.6%.
- Allsvenskan (Sweden) — Hammarby FF 78.8% to finish top of the regular season, from 58 points after 28 played. Sirius is next on 21.1%.
- Eliteserien (Norway) — Bodo/Glimt 49.9% to finish top of the regular season, from 62 points after 26 played. Viking is next on 50.1%.
- Ekstraklasa (Poland) — Lech Poznan 77.9% to win it, from 32 points after 13 played. Gornik Zabrze is next on 16%.
- Czech Liga (Czech-Republic) — Slavia Praha 95.8% to finish top of the regular season, from 34 points after 14 played. Sparta Praha is next on 2.6%.
- Liga I (Romania) — Universitatea Craiova 65.1% to finish top of the regular season, from 33 points after 15 played. Dinamo Bucuresti is next on 26.5%.
- First League (Bulgaria) — Levski Sofia 40.1% to finish top of the regular season, from 32 points after 13 played. CSKA Sofia is next on 39.7%.
- NB I (Hungary) — Ferencvarosi TC 69.2% to win it, from 23 points after 12 played. Gyori ETO FC is next on 14.8%.
- HNL (Croatia) — Dinamo Zagreb 60.6% to win it, from 25 points after 12 played. HNK Hajduk Split is next on 38%.
- Super Liga (Serbia) — FK Crvena Zvezda 99.6% to finish top of the regular season, from 43 points after 15 played. Vojvodina is next on 0.3%.
- Premier League (Russia) — Zenit 42.9% to finish top of the regular season, from 31 points after 14 played. Dynamo is next on 28.5%.
- Serie B (Italy) — Palermo 54.8% to finish top of the regular season, from 27 points after 11 played. Ascoli is next on 20.3%.
- 2. Bundesliga (Germany) — Hertha BSC 64.7% to finish top of the regular season, from 31 points after 11 played. 1. FC Nürnberg is next on 16.4%.
- Segunda División (Spain) — Castellón 52.3% to finish top of the regular season, from 30 points after 13 played. Almeria is next on 30.3%.
- Ligue 2 (France) — Saint Etienne 51.1% to finish top of the regular season, from 28 points after 12 played. Montpellier is next on 23.3%.
- Serie A (Brazil) — Flamengo 79.2% to win it, from 76 points after 34 played. Palmeiras is next on 20.8%.
- Liga MX (Mexico) — Cruz Azul 40.7% to finish top of the Apertura, from 32 points after 16 played. Guadalajara Chivas is next on 29.1%.
- K League 1 (South-Korea) — Championship Group: FC Seoul 100% to finish top, from 67 points after 35 played. Ulsan Hyundai FC is next on 0%.
- K League 1 (South-Korea) — Relegation Group: Jeju United FC 69.2% to finish top, from 48 points after 35 played. FC Anyang is next on 26.1%.
- Premier Soccer League (South-Africa) — Orlando Pirates 74.1% to finish top of the regular season, from 25 points after 9 played. Mamelodi Sundowns is next on 24%.
- Pro League (Saudi-Arabia) — Al-Hilal 61.3% to win it, from 30 points after 11 played. Al-Qadisiyah FC is next on 19.8%.
- Ligat Ha'al (Israel) — Maccabi Tel Aviv 55.5% to finish top of the regular season, from 24 points after 10 played. Hapoel Tel Aviv is next on 29%.
- Premier League (Egypt) — Pyramids FC 68.8% to finish top of the regular season, from 24 points after 8 played. Al Ahly is next on 17.9%.
- Stars League (Qatar) — Al-Rayyan SC 54.8% to finish top of the regular season, from 21 points after 9 played. Al-Duhail SC is next on 39.8%.
- Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates) — Al-Jazira 34.2% to win it, from 17 points after 7 played. Al Ain is next on 26.9%.
- Erovnuli Liga (Georgia) — Dinamo Tbilisi 40.6% to finish top of the regular season, from 58 points after 32 played. FC Iberia 1999 is next on 32.8%.
- Primera División (Chile) — Colo Colo 100% to win it, from 61 points after 27 played. Universidad de Chile is next on 0%.
- League One (England) — Huddersfield 32.2% to finish top of the regular season, from 29 points after 14 played. Oxford United is next on 28.2%.
- League Two (England) — Barnet 36.8% to finish top of the regular season, from 26 points after 13 played. Salford City is next on 29%.
- Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) — Eerste Divisie: Regular season: Heracles 91.7% to finish top, from 38 points after 15 played. Almere City FC is next on 5.2%.
- Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) — Eerste Divisie: Period 1: Heracles 80.5% to finish top, from 25 points after 10 played. Almere City FC is next on 13.3%.
- 1. Lig (Turkey) — Bursaspor 57.9% to finish top of the regular season, from 32 points after 14 played. Kayserispor is next on 37.4%.
- Segunda Liga (Portugal) — Penafiel 35.3% to finish top of the regular season, from 22 points after 10 played. Benfica B is next on 24.4%.
- I Liga (Poland) — Polonia Warszawa 34.3% to finish top of the regular season, from 25 points after 14 played. ŁKS Łódź is next on 16.2%.
- Championship (Scotland) — Partick 50.7% to finish top of the regular season, from 31 points after 15 played. Dunfermline is next on 21.3%.
- 3. Liga (Germany) — MSV Duisburg 41.1% to win it, from 29 points after 13 played. FC Viktoria Köln is next on 33.9%.
- Ligue 3 (France) — La Roche VF 28.1% to win it, from 27 points after 12 played. Rouen is next on 25.3%.
- Premier League (Ukraine) — Shakhtar Donetsk 67.9% to finish top of the regular season, from 29 points after 12 played. Polessya is next on 22.2%.
- 1. Division (Cyprus) — Omonia Nicosia 54.3% to finish top of the regular season, from 18 points after 9 played. AEK Larnaca is next on 27.9%.
- Super Liga (Slovakia) — Dunajska Streda 97.8% to finish top of the regular season, from 38 points after 14 played. Slovan Bratislava is next on 1.6%.
- 1. SNL (Slovenia) — Koper 47.4% to finish top of the regular season, from 29 points after 15 played. Celje is next on 35.5%.
- Premyer Liqa (Azerbaijan) — Sabah FA 55% to finish top of the regular season, from 21 points after 10 played. Neftchi Baku is next on 23.9%.
- Premijer Liga (Bosnia) — Zrinjski 57.6% to win it, from 34 points after 13 played. Borac Banja Luka is next on 42.2%.
- Premier League (Belarus) — ML Vitebsk 67.8% to finish top of the regular season, from 62 points after 28 played. Dinamo Minsk is next on 16.9%.
- Liga Pro (Ecuador) — Championship Group: Independiente del Valle 100% to finish top, from 84 points after 35 played. Macara is next on 0%.
- Liga Pro (Ecuador) — Relegation Group: Deportivo Cuenca 80.3% to finish top, from 47 points after 36 played. Mushuc Runa SC is next on 17.5%.
- Division Profesional - Clausura (Paraguay) — Olimpia 99.8% to win it, from 42 points after 19 played. Libertad Asuncion is next on 0%.
- Primera División (Peru) — Primera Division: Tabla Anual: Alianza Lima 100% to finish top, from 69 points after 33 played. Universitario is next on 0%.
- Primera División (Peru) — Primera Division: Apertura: Alianza Lima 100% to finish top, from 40 points after 17 played. Club Deportivo Los Chankas is next on 0%.
- Primera División (Peru) — Primera Division: Clausura: Sport Huancayo 52% to finish top, from 34 points after 16 played. Sporting Cristal is next on 34.1%.
- Persian Gulf Pro League (Iran) — Tractor Sazi 33.8% to finish top of the regular season, from 23 points after 11 played. Sepahan FC is next on 38.6%.
- Challenge League (Switzerland) — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 93.1% to win it, from 31 points after 13 played. FC Winterthur is next on 5.3%.
- 1. Division (Denmark) — Hvidovre 72.6% to finish top of the regular season, from 32 points after 14 played. Vejle is next on 19.1%.
- Ligue 1 (Algeria) — CR Belouizdad 42.6% to win it, from 20 points after 8 played. MC Alger is next on 27.6%.
- Ligue 1 (Tunisia) — ES Tunis 41.1% to win it, from 16 points after 7 played. US Ben Guerdane is next on 26.1%.