Every league we project, led by what changed. Each figure is the club's chance of finishing in that position at the end of the phase being played — a regular season, a conference, an Apertura — from playing out every remaining match of that phase 10,000 times. Where the phase is not the whole competition the row says so, because topping a conference and winning a league are different achievements. Not a form guide, and not a prediction of the next round. Movement is measured against each competition's last reading whose numbers actually moved, which is why the dates differ: a projection that did not change is carried forward rather than restamped, and one taken over a different phase is not subtracted at all. A statistical estimate, not betting advice.

The races that moved

  1. Rapid Vienna — chance of finishing top up 31, to 52.5%, in the Bundesliga (Austria) (the regular season). Measured since 2026-09-13.
  2. Celtic — chance of finishing top up 24.9, to 85.3%, in the Premiership (Scotland) (the regular season). Measured since 2026-09-15.
  3. Lask Linz — chance of finishing top down 23, to 19.5%, in the Bundesliga (Austria) (the regular season). Measured since 2026-09-13.
  4. St Patrick's Athletic — chance of finishing top up 17.6, to 25.5%, in the Premier Division (Ireland) (the regular season). Measured since 2026-09-14.
  5. Gornik Zabrze — chance of finishing top up 16.9, to 38.3%, in the Ekstraklasa (Poland). Measured since 2026-09-15.
  6. Vancouver Whitecaps — chance of finishing top down 14.5, to 66%, in the Major League Soccer (USA) (the Western Conference). Measured since 2026-09-13.
  7. Heart of Midlothian — chance of finishing top down 13.6, to 4.2%, in the Premiership (Scotland) (the regular season). Measured since 2026-09-15.
  8. Shamrock Rovers — chance of finishing top down 13.1, to 61%, in the Premier Division (Ireland) (the regular season). Measured since 2026-09-14.
  9. Toluca — chance of finishing top up 13.1, to 42.7%, in the Liga MX (Mexico) (the Apertura). Measured since 2026-09-15.
  10. FC Lugano — chance of finishing top up 11.6, to 68.8%, in the Super League (Switzerland) (the regular season). Measured since 2026-09-16.

And at the other end

Bottom-three chances, which move on different weeks than the title does. These are final positions, not relegation: what a position costs depends on each country's playoffs and rules, and a position does not. At most two clubs per competition, so one league's dramatic weekend does not fill the list.

  1. Motherwell — bottom-three risk up 31.1, to 32.5%, in the Premiership (Scotland) (the regular season). Measured since 2026-09-15.
  2. Aberdeen — bottom-three risk down 28.9, to 23.5%, in the Premiership (Scotland) (the regular season). Measured since 2026-09-15.
  3. FC Thun — bottom-three risk up 25.6, to 56.3%, in the Super League (Switzerland) (the regular season). Measured since 2026-09-16.
  4. Austin — bottom-three risk down 24.9, to 44.8%, in the Major League Soccer (USA) (the Western Conference). Measured since 2026-09-13.
  5. Wolfsberger AC — bottom-three risk down 21.7, to 17.4%, in the Bundesliga (Austria) (the regular season). Measured since 2026-09-13.
  6. Ried — bottom-three risk down 18.5, to 20.9%, in the Bundesliga (Austria) (the regular season). Measured since 2026-09-13.
  7. Servette FC — bottom-three risk down 18.5, to 23.5%, in the Super League (Switzerland) (the regular season). Measured since 2026-09-16.
  8. Al Riyadh — bottom-three risk down 18.2, to 34.2%, in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia). Measured since 2026-09-13.

Every race we track

32 races have played enough of their phase for a projection to mean anything. The rest appear here as they reach that point, and a league that splits into groups appears once per group — those are separate races run on separate tables.

  1. La Liga (Spain) — Barcelona 75.7% to win it, from 18 points after 6 played. Real Madrid is next on 19.4%.
  2. Championship (England) — Southampton 36.7% to finish top of the regular season, from 10 points after 7 played. Middlesbrough is next on 18.9%.
  3. Eredivisie (Netherlands) — PSV Eindhoven 61.6% to finish top of the regular season, from 16 points after 6 played. AZ Alkmaar is next on 17.6%.
  4. Primeira Liga (Portugal) — FC Porto 38.3% to finish top of the regular season, from 18 points after 6 played. Benfica is next on 31%.
  5. Jupiler Pro League (Belgium) — Union St. Gilloise 47.3% to finish top of the regular season, from 16 points after 6 played. Gent is next on 21.6%.
  6. Premiership (Scotland) — Celtic 85.3% to finish top of the regular season, from 18 points after 6 played. Rangers is next on 6.6%.
  7. Super League (Switzerland) — FC Lugano 68.8% to finish top of the regular season, from 22 points after 8 played. FC Sion is next on 16%.
  8. Bundesliga (Austria) — Rapid Vienna 52.5% to finish top of the regular season, from 15 points after 6 played. Red Bull Salzburg is next on 25.8%.
  9. Superliga (Denmark) — FC Copenhagen 64.9% to finish top of the regular season, from 21 points after 8 played. FC Midtjylland is next on 22.7%.
  10. Allsvenskan (Sweden) — Sirius 78.8% to finish top of the regular season, from 48 points after 21 played. Djurgardens IF is next on 12.7%.
  11. Eliteserien (Norway) — Bodo/Glimt 73.7% to finish top of the regular season, from 50 points after 20 played. Viking is next on 26.3%.
  12. Ekstraklasa (Poland) — Gornik Zabrze 38.3% to win it, from 21 points after 8 played. Legia Warszawa is next on 24.6%.
  13. Czech Liga (Czech-Republic) — Slavia Praha 72.3% to finish top of the regular season, from 20 points after 8 played. Slovan Liberec is next on 19.3%.
  14. Liga I (Romania) — Dinamo Bucuresti 45.7% to finish top of the regular season, from 20 points after 9 played. Universitatea Craiova is next on 26.3%.
  15. First League (Bulgaria) — Levski Sofia 65.1% to finish top of the regular season, from 25 points after 9 played. CSKA Sofia is next on 24.1%.
  16. NB I (Hungary) — Ujpest 25.9% to win it, from 11 points after 7 played. Gyori ETO FC is next on 20.5%.
  17. HNL (Croatia) — HNK Hajduk Split 30.2% to win it, from 16 points after 7 played. Dinamo Zagreb is next on 27.8%.
  18. Super Liga (Serbia) — FK Crvena Zvezda 69.4% to finish top of the regular season, from 22 points after 8 played. Vojvodina is next on 26.4%.
  19. Premier League (Russia) — FC Krasnodar 28.2% to finish top of the regular season, from 20 points after 8 played. Zenit is next on 27.1%.
  20. Ligue 2 (France) — Saint Etienne 97.9% to finish top of the regular season, from 15 points after 6 played. Montpellier is next on 0.7%.
  21. Serie A (Brazil) — Flamengo 56.7% to win it, from 57 points after 27 played. Palmeiras is next on 42.7%.
  22. Liga Profesional Argentina (Argentina) — Clausura - Group A: Instituto Cordoba 33.1% to finish top, from 19 points after 9 played. Velez Sarsfield is next on 27.8%.
  23. Liga Profesional Argentina (Argentina) — Clausura - Group B: Argentinos Juniors 39.8% to finish top, from 18 points after 9 played. Gimnasia La Plata is next on 14.2%.
  24. Liga MX (Mexico) — Toluca 42.7% to finish top of the Apertura, from 19 points after 8 played. Guadalajara Chivas is next on 25.3%.
  25. Major League Soccer (USA) — Western Conference: Vancouver Whitecaps 66% to finish top, from 46 points after 24 played. FC Dallas is next on 13.8%.
  26. Major League Soccer (USA) — Eastern Conference: Nashville SC 94.7% to finish top, from 54 points after 25 played. Inter Miami is next on 4.8%.
  27. K League 1 (South-Korea) — FC Seoul 100% to finish top of the regular season, from 62 points after 29 played. Ulsan Hyundai FC is next on 0%.
  28. Super League (China) — Chengdu Better City 100% to win it, from 52 points after 26 played. Dalian Zhixing is next on 0%.
  29. Premier Soccer League (South-Africa) — Orlando Pirates 57.4% to finish top of the regular season, from 13 points after 5 played. Mamelodi Sundowns is next on 39.3%.
  30. Pro League (Saudi-Arabia) — Al-Hilal 79.1% to win it, from 18 points after 7 played. Al-Qadisiyah FC is next on 11.4%.
  31. Premier Division (Ireland) — Shamrock Rovers 61% to finish top of the regular season, from 56 points after 30 played. St Patrick's Athletic is next on 25.5%.
  32. Erovnuli Liga (Georgia) — Rustavi 46.4% to finish top of the regular season, from 46 points after 26 played. Dinamo Batumi is next on 22.4%.