26 July 2026, 19:00 UTC

Bahia vs Corinthians Serie A prediction & result

Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Bahia 1-1 Corinthians.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Bahia, 25% draw, 32% Corinthians — fair odds of 2.33, 4.00 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bahia at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
⚽F. Angileriassist: Andre
•A. Veliz
11'
16'
F. Angileri
David Duarte
19'
Ze Guilherme
28'
35'
Raniele
⚽David Duarteassist: Rodrigo
45+4'
Rogerio Ceni
45+9'
67'
Breno Bidon
🔁Ademirout: Willian Jose
69'
🔁A. Velizout: Kaue Junior
69'
🔁Ze Guilhermeout: Luciano Juba
69'
69'
🔁F. Angileriout: P. Milans
70'
🔁Breno Bidonout: Z. Labyad
77'
🔁Andreout: Allan
77'
🔁Ranieleout: M. Pereira
🔁Jean Lucasout: Everton Ribeiro
77'
85'
🔁Yuri Albertoout: A. Carrillo
🔁Erick Pulgaout: M. Sanabria
86'
89'
Kaue
90+6'
Allan

Match stats — Bahia vs Corinthians

60%Possession40%
12Shots5
2On target2
7Corners2
0.65xG0.17

Goals against chances

Bahia1 from 0.65 xGabout what the chances were worth
Corinthians1 from 0.17 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bahia 3-1-4-2
  • 1RonaldoG
  • 31Román GómezD
  • 33David DuarteD
  • 21Santiago Ramos MingoD
  • 5Nicolás AcevedoM
  • 7AdemirM
  • 11Rodrigo NestorM
  • 6Jean LucasM
  • 66José GuilhermeM
  • 9Alejo VélizF
  • 16Erick PulgaF
Substitutes
  • 46Luciano JubaD
  • 57Kauê FurquimM
  • 12Willian JoséF
  • 10Everton RibeiroM
  • 23Mateo SanabriaF
  • 17Guido HerreraG
  • 4KanuD
  • 44Marcos VictorD
  • 77Ruan PabloF
Coach: Ceni Rogerio
Corinthians 4-2-3-1
  • 1Hugo SouzaG
  • 2MatheuzinhoD
  • 3Gabriel PaulistaD
  • 13Gustavo HenriqueD
  • 26Fabrizio AngileriD
  • 14RanieleM
  • 49André LuizM
  • 37Kaio CésarM
  • 8Rodrigo GarroM
  • 7Breno BidonM
  • 9Yuri AlbertoF
Substitutes
  • 20Pedro MilansD
  • 52Zakaria LabyadF
  • 29AllanM
  • 23Matheus PereiraM
  • 19André CarrilloM
  • 51KauêG
  • 4João Pedro TchocaD
  • 5André RamalhoD
  • 61DieguinhoM
Coach: Fernando Diniz

Form going into Bahia vs Corinthians

Bahia

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Atletico Mineiro21 July 2026
  • W2-0Chapecoense17 July 2026

Corinthians

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0Remo23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Bahia34141195045+553
17Corinthians34910153642-637

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bahia vs Corinthians

  • 28 January 2026Corinthians 1–2 BahiaSerie A
  • 17 August 2025Corinthians 1–2 BahiaSerie A
  • 30 March 2025Bahia 1–1 CorinthiansSerie A
  • 3 December 2024Corinthians 3–0 BahiaSerie A
  • 21 July 2024Bahia 0–1 CorinthiansSerie A

The full Bahia vs Corinthians record →

Leading scorers: Bahia and Corinthians

Bahia

GoalsAssists

  • Luciano Juba112

Corinthians

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 36 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bahia and Corinthians drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Bahia at 43% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: F. Angileri 8' for Corinthians, David Duarte 45+4' for Bahia. On expected goals it finished 0.65–0.17.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.