Fixtures & Predictions

Brazilian Serie A predictions

29 matches ahead, from 18 November to 29 November, each with the model's win / draw / win split and most likely score. The clearest favourite: Flamengo, 68% against Atletico Paranaense. 2 are marked Tight game — the two sides within 3 points, where the draw is a real outcome. How the model works.

1 home · X draw · 2 away — fair odds, times in UTC

Wednesday 18 November — 4 matches

  • 22:30 UTC Coritiba vs Santos — model 33% / 28% / 39%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.03 · 3.57 · 2.56. Edge: Santos
  • 23:00 UTC Remo vs Chapecoense — model 55% / 24% / 21%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.82 · 4.17 · 4.76. Edge: Remo
  • 23:30 UTC Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense — model 68% / 19% / 13%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.47 · 5.26 · 7.69. One-sided: Flamengo
  • 23:30 UTC Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras — model 31% / 28% / 41%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.23 · 3.57 · 2.44. Edge: Palmeiras

Thursday 19 November — 4 matches

  • 00:30 UTC Gremio vs Bahia — model 39% / 28% / 33%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.56 · 3.57 · 3.03. Evenly matched
  • 00:30 UTC Corinthians vs Botafogo — model 44% / 29% / 27%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.27 · 3.45 · 3.70. Evenly matched
  • 22:30 UTC Vasco da Gama vs Internacional — model 48% / 27% / 25%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.08 · 3.70 · 4.00. Evenly matched
  • 22:30 UTC Vitoria vs RB Bragantino — model 34% / 30% / 36%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 2.94 · 3.33 · 2.78. Tight game · draw in reach

Friday 20 November — 1 match

  • 00:30 UTC Sao Paulo vs Fluminense — model 36% / 29% / 35%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.78 · 3.45 · 2.86. Tight game · draw in reach

Saturday 21 November — 2 matches

  • 19:30 UTC Palmeiras vs Flamengo — model 45% / 28% / 27%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.22 · 3.57 · 3.70. Evenly matched
  • 20:30 UTC Bahia vs Coritiba — model 57% / 24% / 19%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.75 · 4.17 · 5.26. Edge: Bahia

Sunday 22 November — 4 matches

  • 00:00 UTC Chapecoense vs Cruzeiro — model 23% / 24% / 53%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 4.35 · 4.17 · 1.89. One-sided: Cruzeiro
  • 19:00 UTC Atletico Paranaense vs Remo — model 57% / 23% / 20%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.75 · 4.35 · 5.00. Edge: Atletico Paranaense
  • 21:30 UTC Fluminense vs Mirassol — model 53% / 26% / 21%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.89 · 3.85 · 4.76. Edge: Fluminense
  • 22:30 UTC RB Bragantino vs Vasco da Gama — model 46% / 27% / 27%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.17 · 3.70 · 3.70. Evenly matched

Monday 23 November — 2 matches

  • 22:30 UTC Internacional vs Vitoria — model 50% / 28% / 22%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.00 · 3.57 · 4.55. Edge: Internacional
  • 23:00 UTC Botafogo vs Sao Paulo — model 41% / 30% / 29%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.44 · 3.33 · 3.45. Evenly matched

Tuesday 24 November — 2 matches

  • 00:00 UTC Santos vs Gremio — model 52% / 26% / 22%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.92 · 3.85 · 4.55. Edge: Santos
  • 21:00 UTC Chapecoense vs Palmeiras — model 13% / 22% / 65%, most likely 0-2, fair odds 7.69 · 4.55 · 1.54. One-sided: Palmeiras

Wednesday 25 November — 1 match

Thursday 26 November — 1 match

  • 23:00 UTC Sao Paulo vs Remo — model 50% / 28% / 22%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.00 · 3.57 · 4.55. Edge: Sao Paulo

Friday 27 November — 1 match

  • 23:00 UTC Fluminense vs Cruzeiro — model 46% / 26% / 28%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.17 · 3.85 · 3.57. Evenly matched

Sunday 29 November — 7 matches

  • 00:00 UTC Botafogo vs Bahia — model 39% / 28% / 33%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.56 · 3.57 · 3.03. Evenly matched
  • 19:00 UTC Vitoria vs Santos — model 32% / 29% / 39%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.13 · 3.45 · 2.56. Edge: Santos
  • 19:00 UTC Coritiba vs Flamengo — model 19% / 24% / 57%, most likely 0-2, fair odds 5.26 · 4.17 · 1.75. One-sided: Flamengo
  • 21:30 UTC Internacional vs RB Bragantino — model 40% / 30% / 30%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.50 · 3.33 · 3.33. Evenly matched
  • 21:30 UTC Corinthians vs Gremio — model 44% / 29% / 27%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.27 · 3.45 · 3.70. Evenly matched
  • 21:30 UTC Mirassol vs Atletico Paranaense — model 43% / 27% / 30%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.33 · 3.70 · 3.33. Evenly matched
  • 22:30 UTC Atletico Mineiro vs Vasco da Gama — model 46% / 28% / 26%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.17 · 3.57 · 3.85. Evenly matched

Last round: the model's hits and misses

14 November: the model called the result of 0 of 1 matches. Across all 155 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 52% of results.

Brazilian Serie A so far

Top of the table

  • 1. Flamengo — 76 pts from 34 (23W 7D 4L, goals 71–29)
  • 2. Palmeiras — 73 pts from 34 (21W 10D 3L, goals 62–23)
  • 3. Cruzeiro — 60 pts from 34 (18W 6D 10L, goals 55–48)
  • 4. Fluminense — 57 pts from 34 (16W 9D 9L, goals 55–42)
  • 5. Atletico Paranaense — 54 pts from 34 (15W 9D 10L, goals 51–43)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 39 matches left: Flamengo 79.2%, Palmeiras 20.8%.

Leading scorers: K. Viveros (Atletico Paranaense) 21 goals, Pedro (Flamengo) 20 goals, Gabriel Barbosa (Santos) 15 goals.

Brazilian Serie A table · Accuracy by competition · Head-to-head records · All competitions