Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Fenerbahçe 1-1 AS Roma.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Fenerbahçe, 26% draw, 48% AS Roma — fair odds of 3.85, 3.85 and 2.08.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Champions League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
AS Roma at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma
Line-ups
- 31EdersonG
- 18M. MüldürD
- 37M. ŠkriniarD
- 15N. AkéD
- 3A. BrownD
- 91N. KantéM
- 5İ. YüksekM
- 28B. ElmazM
- 11M. GreenwoodF
- 19V. MuriqiF
- 7K. AktürkoğluF
- 27Nélson SemedoD
- 14Y. DemirD
- 34M. GünokG
- 17İ. KahveciM
- 9R. LukakuF
- 22L. MercanD
- 77O. MimoviÄD
- 45N. DorgelesF
- 21K. Peprah OppongD
- 99M. SvilarG
- 23G. ManciniD
- 5E. NdickaD
- 22HermosoD
- 2D. RenschM
- 4B. CristanteM
- 17M. KonéM
- 43WesleyM
- 21P. DybalaM
- 18M. SouléM
- 14D. MalenF
- 26L. BalerdiD
- 9S. CastroF
- 70G. De MarziG
- 15M. de RoonM
- 87D. GhilardiD
- 95P. GolliniG
- 3K. KoulierakisD
- 77E. LulliD
- 20N. MolinaD
Form going into Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma
Fenerbahçe
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Beşiktaş5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Samsunspor30 August 2026
- W2-1away to Lyon26 August 2026
- W4-2Konyaspor22 August 2026
- D1-1Lyon18 August 2026
AS Roma
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Atalanta5 September 2026
- W4-0away to Lecce31 August 2026
- W4-0Fiorentina24 August 2026
What these results say
- Fenerbahçe scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fenerbahçe conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Fenerbahçe.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Fenerbahçe | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 5 |
| 20 | AS Roma | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Fenerbahçe and AS Roma
Fenerbahçe
GoalsAssists
- M. Greenwood42
- Talisca40
AS Roma
GoalsAssists
- D. Malen42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Fenerbahçe and AS Roma drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for AS Roma at 48% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Bryan Cristante 39' for AS Roma, Archie Brown 48' for Fenerbahçe.
How the call on Fenerbahçe v AS Roma has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 30% / 27% / 43% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 26% / 26% / 48%: the biggest move is AS Roma's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Fenerbahçe win26%▼ −4
- Draw26%▼ −1
- AS Roma win48%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.