Champions League predictions & fixtures

Tuesday 24 November — 9 matches

17:45 UTC Bodo/Glimt vs Lask Linz — model 70% / 17% / 13%, most likely 3-1, fair odds 1.43 · 5.88 · 7.69. One-sided: Bodo/Glimt
17:45 UTC Galatasaray vs Aston Villa — model 31% / 24% / 45%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.23 · 4.17 · 2.22. Edge: Aston Villa
20:00 UTC Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund — model 63% / 23% / 14%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.59 · 4.35 · 7.14. One-sided: Arsenal
20:00 UTC Manchester City vs Napoli — model 64% / 20% / 16%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.56 · 5.00 · 6.25. Edge: Manchester City
20:00 UTC RB Leipzig vs Lens — model 67% / 17% / 16%, most likely 3-1, fair odds 1.49 · 5.88 · 6.25. Edge: RB Leipzig
20:00 UTC Feyenoord vs FC Porto — model 28% / 26% / 46%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.57 · 3.85 · 2.17. One-sided: FC Porto
20:00 UTC Real Madrid vs PSV Eindhoven — model 70% / 17% / 13%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.43 · 5.88 · 7.69. One-sided: Real Madrid
20:00 UTC Slovan Bratislava vs Real Betis — model 14% / 20% / 66%, most likely 0-2, fair odds 7.14 · 5.00 · 1.52. One-sided: Real Betis
20:00 UTC Como vs AEK Athens FC — model 72% / 17% / 11%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.39 · 5.88 · 9.09. One-sided: Como

Wednesday 25 November — 9 matches

17:45 UTC Slavia Praha vs Villarreal — model 44% / 25% / 31%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.27 · 4.00 · 3.23. Evenly matched
17:45 UTC Sabah FA vs Barcelona — model 9% / 14% / 77%, most likely 1-3, fair odds 11.11 · 7.14 · 1.30. One-sided: Barcelona
20:00 UTC Lille vs Bayern München — model 19% / 22% / 59%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 5.26 · 4.55 · 1.69. One-sided: Bayern München
20:00 UTC Paris Saint Germain vs AS Roma — model 59% / 21% / 20%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.69 · 4.76 · 5.00. Edge: Paris Saint Germain
20:00 UTC Sporting CP vs Manchester United — model 52% / 23% / 25%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.92 · 4.35 · 4.00. Evenly matched
20:00 UTC Inter vs VfB Stuttgart — model 62% / 21% / 17%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.61 · 4.76 · 5.88. Edge: Inter
20:00 UTC Atletico Madrid vs Viking — model 72% / 16% / 12%, most likely 3-1, fair odds 1.39 · 6.25 · 8.33. One-sided: Atletico Madrid
20:00 UTC Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fenerbahçe — model 36% / 28% / 36%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.78 · 3.57 · 2.78. Tight game · draw in reach
20:00 UTC Club Brugge KV vs Liverpool — model 39% / 24% / 37%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.56 · 4.17 · 2.70. Tight game · draw in reach

Last round: the model's hits and misses

3–4 November: the model called the result of 14 of 18 matches, 1 of them to the exact score. Across all 134 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 60% of results.

Galatasaray 2–0 VfB Stuttgart — the model said 44% / 25% / 31%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
Shakhtar Donetsk 0–1 Sporting CP — the model said 26% / 26% / 48%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
Atletico Madrid 0–2 Bayern München — the model said 37% / 24% / 39%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
Barcelona 3–0 Aston Villa — the model said 52% / 22% / 26%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
Bodo/Glimt 0–0 Lille — the model said 49% / 26% / 25%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Feyenoord 0–3 Inter — the model said 29% / 23% / 48%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
Lask Linz 4–0 Slovan Bratislava — the model said 55% / 24% / 21%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
Manchester United 3–2 AS Roma — the model said 37% / 24% / 39%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
Villarreal 0–6 Paris Saint Germain — the model said 22% / 21% / 57%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
AEK Athens FC 2–3 Real Madrid — the model said 20% / 23% / 57%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
Fenerbahçe 3–2 Liverpool — the model said 27% / 26% / 47%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
Borussia Dortmund 2–1 Real Betis — the model said 53% / 24% / 23%, most likely 2-1: exact scoreline.
FC Porto 4–1 Napoli — the model said 50% / 27% / 23%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
Lens 1–9 Como — the model said 29% / 25% / 46%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
PSV Eindhoven 1–2 Club Brugge KV — the model said 45% / 23% / 32%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
RB Leipzig 2–3 Manchester City — the model said 35% / 24% / 41%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
Slavia Praha 1–2 Arsenal — the model said 13% / 23% / 64%, most likely 0-2: result correct.
Viking 4–1 Sabah FA — the model said 65% / 19% / 16%, most likely 2-1: result correct.

Champions League so far

Play-offs

Viking went through against Dinamo Zagreb, 5–3 on aggregate.
Fenerbahçe went through against Lyon, 3–2 on aggregate.
AEK Athens FC went through against Levski Sofia, 4–0 on aggregate.
Lask Linz went through against Celtic, 5–4 on aggregate.
Sabah FA went through against Hapoel Beer Sheva, 6–4 on aggregate.
Bodo/Glimt went through against NEC Nijmegen, 6–1 on aggregate.
Slovan Bratislava went through against Celje, 3–2 on aggregate.

3rd Qualifying Round

Dinamo Zagreb went through against Kauno Žalgiris, 7–1 on aggregate.
Lyon went through against Sparta Praha, 4–2 on aggregate.
Fenerbahçe went through against Sturm Graz, 3–0 on aggregate.
Levski Sofia went through against Kairat Almaty, 2–0 on aggregate.
Hapoel Beer Sheva went through against FK Crvena Zvezda, 3–0 on aggregate.
Sabah FA went through against Aarhus, 5–2 on aggregate.
NEC Nijmegen went through against Olympiakos Piraeus, 2–1 on aggregate.
Bodo/Glimt went through against Union St. Gilloise, 6–5 on aggregate.
Celje went through against Ararat-Armenia, 3–2 on aggregate.
Slovan Bratislava went through against Mjallby AIF, 4–1 on aggregate.

2nd Qualifying Round

Dinamo Zagreb went through against FC Thun, 4–3 on aggregate.
Kauno Žalgiris went through against KI Klaksvik, 1–0 on aggregate.
Fenerbahçe went through against Gornik Zabrze, 2–1 on aggregate.
Sturm Graz went through against Heart of Midlothian, 6–0 on aggregate.
Levski Sofia went through against Universitatea Craiova, 3–2 on aggregate.
Kairat Almaty went through against Omonia Nicosia, on penalties after 1–1.
FK Crvena Zvezda went through against Larne, 9–0 on aggregate.
Hapoel Beer Sheva went through against Vikingur Reykjavik, 3–2 on aggregate.
Aarhus went through against Lech Poznan, on penalties after 4–4.
Sabah FA went through against KuPS, 3–0 on aggregate.
Ararat-Armenia went through against Shamrock Rovers, 3–2 on aggregate.
Celje went through against Egnatia Rrogozhinë, on penalties after 4–4.
Slovan Bratislava went through against FC Iberia 1999, 3–1 on aggregate.
Mjallby AIF went through against Lincoln Red Imps FC, 3–0 on aggregate.

Leading scorers: T. Douvikas (Como) 6 goals, E. Haaland (Manchester City) 5 goals, N. Tresoldi (Club Brugge KV) 5 goals.