23 July 2026, 00:30 UTC

Houston Dynamo vs DC United Major League Soccer prediction & result

Shell Energy Stadium, Houston
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Houston Dynamo 1-1 DC United.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Houston Dynamo, 25% draw, 44% DC United — fair odds of 3.23, 4.00 and 2.27.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

DC United at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽H. Herrera
40'
53'
🔁J. Hopkinsout: M. Peltola
🔁D. McGuireout: E. Ponce
59'
🔁Lucas Halterout: E. Sviatchenko
61'
67'
S. Hefti
68'
🔁B. Servaniaout: J. Stroud
68'
🔁L. Munteanuout: N. Ordaz
68'
🔁Peglowout: H. Kijima
Artur
70'
71'
T. Baribo
72'
A. Dozzell
🔁L. Ennaliout: F. Negri
77'
🔁H. Herreraout: D. Samassekou
78'
78'
⚽T. Bariboassist: N. Ordaz
🔁M. Boguszout: O. Lingr
88'
🔁Felipe Andradeout: D. Holmes
88'
88'
🔁A. Dozzellout: N. Markovic
90+5'
J. Stroud
E. Sviatchenko
90+7'

Match stats — Houston Dynamo vs DC United

64%Possession36%
20Shots7
5On target1
3Corners3
1.04xG0.85

Goals against chances

Houston Dynamo1 from 1.04 xGabout what the chances were worth
DC United1 from 0.85 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Houston Dynamo 4-1-4-1
  • 31Jonathan BondG
  • 36Felipe AndradeD
  • 5Lucas HalterD
  • 34Agustin ReschD
  • 11Lawrence EnnaliD
  • 6ArturM
  • 19Mateusz BoguszM
  • 8Jack McGlynnM
  • 16Héctor HerreraM
  • 20GuilhermeM
  • 23Duncan McGuireF
Substitutes
  • 10Ezequiel PonceF
  • 28Erik SviatchenkoD
  • 21Franco NegriD
  • 18Diadié SamassékouM
  • 14Duane HolmesM
  • 9Ondrej LingrM
  • 26Blake GillinghamG
  • 30Agustín BouzatM
  • 24Ibrahim AliyuF
Coach: Ben Olsen
DC United 4-4-2
  • 1Sean JohnsonG
  • 5Silvan HeftiD
  • 3Lucas BartlettD
  • 13Sean NealisD
  • 6Keisuke KurokawaD
  • 25Jackson HopkinsM
  • 21Andre DozzellM
  • 23Brandon ServaniaM
  • 7João PeglowM
  • 9Tai BariboF
  • 11Louis MunteanuF
Substitutes
  • 4Matti PeltolaD
  • 77Hosei KijimaM
  • 8Jared StroudM
  • 22Nathan OrdazF
  • 27Nikola MarkovicD
  • 26Alex BonoG
  • 20Grant LeveilleG
  • 32Oscar AvilezF
  • 17Jacob MurrellF
Coach: Rene Weiler

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Houston Dynamo34149114343051
14DC United34712153961-2233

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Houston Dynamo vs DC United

  • 15 February 2025Houston Dynamo 1–3 DC UnitedFriendlies Clubs
  • 22 June 2024DC United 1–4 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
  • 7 May 2022DC United 2–0 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
  • 19 May 2019Houston Dynamo 2–1 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
  • 17 March 2018DC United 2–2 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Houston Dynamo and DC United

Houston Dynamo

GoalsAssists

  • Guilherme168

DC United

GoalsAssists

  • T. Baribo161

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Houston Dynamo and DC United drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for DC United at 44% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: H. Herrera 40' for Houston Dynamo, T. Baribo 78' for DC United. On expected goals it finished 1.04–0.85.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.