MLS predictions & fixtures

Friday 20 November — 2 matches

00:30 UTC Orlando City SC vs FC Cincinnati — model 48% / 21% / 31%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.08 · 4.76 · 3.23. Evenly matched
03:00 UTC Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake — model 41% / 28% / 31%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.44 · 3.57 · 3.23. Evenly matched

Saturday 21 November — 3 matches

19:00 UTC New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union — model 36% / 26% / 38%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.78 · 3.85 · 2.63. Tight game · draw in reach
21:00 UTC FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers — model 48% / 24% / 28%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.08 · 4.17 · 3.57. Evenly matched
23:00 UTC Inter Miami vs Columbus Crew — model 53% / 21% / 26%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.89 · 4.76 · 3.85. Evenly matched

Sunday 22 November — 1 match

23:30 UTC Chicago Fire vs Charlotte — model 41% / 24% / 35%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.44 · 4.17 · 2.86. Evenly matched

Tuesday 24 November — 1 match

01:00 UTC St. Louis City vs Los Angeles FC — model 45% / 26% / 29%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.22 · 3.85 · 3.45. Evenly matched

Wednesday 25 November — 1 match

03:00 UTC San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo — model 40% / 29% / 31%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.50 · 3.45 · 3.23. Evenly matched

Saturday 28 November — 4 matches

01:00 UTC Columbus Crew vs Inter Miami — model 39% / 23% / 38%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.56 · 4.35 · 2.63. Tight game · draw in reach
17:30 UTC Charlotte vs Chicago Fire — model 50% / 23% / 27%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.00 · 4.35 · 3.70. Evenly matched
19:30 UTC Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes — model 43% / 28% / 29%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.33 · 3.57 · 3.45. Evenly matched
21:30 UTC Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution — model 52% / 24% / 24%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.92 · 4.17 · 4.17. Edge: Philadelphia Union

Sunday 29 November — 2 matches

01:30 UTC Los Angeles FC vs St. Louis City — model 42% / 26% / 32%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.38 · 3.85 · 3.13. Evenly matched
03:30 UTC Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas — model 42% / 24% / 34%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.38 · 4.17 · 2.94. Evenly matched

Last round: the model's hits and misses

7–8 November: the model called the result of 11 of 15 matches, 3 of them to the exact score. Across all 287 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 45% of results.

Inter Miami 3–3 Charlotte — the model said 52% / 22% / 26%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
FC Cincinnati 0–2 Nashville SC — the model said 25% / 25% / 50%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
Philadelphia Union 4–1 Toronto FC — the model said 59% / 21% / 20%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
New York Red Bulls 3–0 Atlanta United FC — the model said 42% / 27% / 31%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
CF Montreal 0–2 Vancouver Whitecaps — the model said 19% / 24% / 57%, most likely 0-2: exact scoreline.
Chicago Fire 3–4 Columbus Crew — the model said 43% / 25% / 32%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
Orlando City SC 1–0 New England Revolution — the model said 41% / 23% / 36%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
DC United 0–1 New York City FC — the model said 30% / 29% / 41%, most likely 0-1: exact scoreline.
Seattle Sounders 2–1 Los Angeles FC — the model said 36% / 29% / 35%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
Real Salt Lake 2–1 Los Angeles Galaxy — the model said 46% / 25% / 29%, most likely 2-1: exact scoreline.
FC Dallas 3–1 Colorado Rapids — the model said 48% / 26% / 26%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
Austin 0–2 Portland Timbers — the model said 36% / 25% / 39%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
San Diego 0–1 Sporting Kansas City — the model said 60% / 20% / 20%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
Minnesota United FC 3–1 San Jose Earthquakes — the model said 46% / 24% / 30%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
Houston Dynamo 0–1 St. Louis City — the model said 38% / 28% / 34%, most likely 1-0: result missed.

MLS so far

Top of the table

1. Vancouver Whitecaps — 64 pts from 34 (19W 7D 8L, goals 74–34)
2. FC Dallas — 58 pts from 34 (16W 10D 8L, goals 62–51)
3. St. Louis City — 54 pts from 34 (15W 9D 10L, goals 59–48)
4. San Jose Earthquakes — 52 pts from 34 (14W 10D 10L, goals 57–51)
5. Houston Dynamo — 51 pts from 34 (14W 9D 11L, goals 43–43)

Leading scorers: L. Messi (Inter Miami) 26 goals, P. Musa (FC Dallas) 22 goals, S. Surridge (Nashville SC) 21 goals.