North Macedonia vs Scotland UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: North Macedonia 0-2 Scotland.
Before kick-off the model made it 25% North Macedonia, 31% draw, 44% Scotland — fair odds of 4.00, 3.23 and 2.27.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Scotland at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — North Macedonia vs Scotland
Line-ups
- 23S. DimitrievskiG
- 14M. MladenovskiD
- 6V. MusliuD
- 13Anes MeljichiD
- 2Bojan IlievskiM
- 16M. GashtarovM
- 8L. StankovskiM
- 3S. HerreraM
- 10E. BardhiM
- 7E. ElmasM
- 9B. MiovskiF
- 19L. DorievF
- 18T. KostadinovM
- 15A. EleziM
- 21J. AtanasovM
- 22H. MaleskiF
- 20D. MitrovskiM
- 17A. OmeragikjF
- 11E. RastoderF
- 12D. ShishkovskiG
- 1A. GunnG
- 5S. WelshD
- 16S. McKennaD
- 4L. BinksD
- 17B. DoakM
- 19L. FergusonM
- 8B. GilmourM
- 3A. RobertsonM
- 7J. McGinnM
- 9O. McBurnieM
- 20K. BowieF
- 18L. GrahamD
- 12L. KellyG
- 15J. McPakeF
- 14L. MillerM
- 23Kristi MontgomeryM
- 22N. PattersonD
- 10R. UreF
- 21S. BainG
- 13Colby DonovanD
Form going into North Macedonia vs Scotland
North Macedonia
UEFA Nations League
- L0-2away to Slovenia29 September 2026
- L0-3Switzerland26 September 2026
Scotland
UEFA Nations League
- L0-3Switzerland29 September 2026
- D0-0away to Slovenia26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | North Macedonia | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 12 | -11 | 0 |
| 3 | Scotland | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Scotland won 2–0 at North Macedonia. The model had made a win for Scotland its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Kieron Bowie 7' for Scotland, John McGinn (penalty) 69' for Scotland. Sent off: Scott Mckenna (Scotland) 83'.
How the call on North Macedonia v Scotland has moved
First published on 19 Sep at 24% / 29% / 47% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 25% / 31% / 44%: the biggest move is Scotland's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- North Macedonia win25%▲ +1
- Draw31%▲ +2
- Scotland win44%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.