Nations League predictions & fixtures

Sunday 15 November — 8 matches

14:00 UTC Latvia vs Armenia — model 27% / 31% / 42%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.70 · 3.23 · 2.38. Edge: Armenia
14:00 UTC Cyprus vs Montenegro — model 30% / 30% / 40%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.33 · 3.33 · 2.50. Edge: Montenegro
17:00 UTC Finland vs San Marino — model 77% / 16% / 7%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.30 · 6.25 · 14.29. One-sided: Finland
17:00 UTC Belarus vs Albania — model 31% / 32% / 37%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.23 · 3.13 · 2.70. Evenly matched
19:45 UTC Belgium vs Italy — model 35% / 29% / 36%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 2.86 · 3.45 · 2.78. Tight game · draw in reach
19:45 UTC France vs Türkiye — model 61% / 21% / 18%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.64 · 4.76 · 5.56. One-sided: France
19:45 UTC Croatia vs Czech Republic — model 56% / 24% / 20%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.79 · 4.17 · 5.00. One-sided: Croatia
19:45 UTC Spain vs England — model 45% / 27% / 28%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.22 · 3.70 · 3.57. Edge: Spain

Monday 16 November — 10 matches

15:00 UTC Kazakhstan vs Slovakia — model 18% / 24% / 58%, most likely 0-2, fair odds 5.56 · 4.17 · 1.72. One-sided: Slovakia
15:00 UTC Faroe Islands vs Moldova — model 47% / 28% / 25%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.13 · 3.57 · 4.00. Edge: Faroe Islands
17:00 UTC Iceland vs Luxembourg — model 58% / 26% / 16%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.72 · 3.85 · 6.25. One-sided: Iceland
17:00 UTC Lithuania vs Liechtenstein — model 53% / 31% / 16%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.89 · 3.23 · 6.25. One-sided: Lithuania
17:00 UTC Estonia vs Bulgaria — model 41% / 33% / 26%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.44 · 3.03 · 3.85. Edge: Estonia
19:45 UTC Switzerland vs Scotland — model 63% / 22% / 15%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.59 · 4.55 · 6.67. One-sided: Switzerland
19:45 UTC Germany vs Netherlands — model 48% / 26% / 26%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.08 · 3.85 · 3.85. Edge: Germany
19:45 UTC Gibraltar vs Malta — model 31% / 33% / 36%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.23 · 3.03 · 2.78. Evenly matched
19:45 UTC North Macedonia vs Slovenia — model 18% / 28% / 54%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 5.56 · 3.57 · 1.85. One-sided: Slovenia
19:45 UTC Greece vs Serbia — model 41% / 28% / 31%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.44 · 3.57 · 3.23. Evenly matched

Tuesday 17 November — 8 matches

19:45 UTC Denmark vs Norway — model 36% / 27% / 37%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.78 · 3.70 · 2.70. Tight game · draw in reach
19:45 UTC Poland vs Sweden — model 49% / 26% / 25%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.04 · 3.85 · 4.00. Edge: Poland
19:45 UTC Wales vs Portugal — model 21% / 27% / 52%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 4.76 · 3.70 · 1.92. One-sided: Portugal
19:45 UTC Hungary vs Northern Ireland — model 41% / 33% / 26%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.44 · 3.03 · 3.85. Edge: Hungary
19:45 UTC Ukraine vs Georgia — model 42% / 34% / 24%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.38 · 2.94 · 4.17. Edge: Ukraine
19:45 UTC Rep. Of Ireland vs Kosovo — model 42% / 32% / 26%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.38 · 3.13 · 3.85. Edge: Rep. Of Ireland
19:45 UTC Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Romania — model 41% / 29% / 30%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.44 · 3.45 · 3.33. Evenly matched
19:45 UTC Israel vs Austria — model 24% / 29% / 47%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 4.17 · 3.45 · 2.13. Edge: Austria

Last round: the model's hits and misses

12–14 November: the model called the result of 12 of 20 matches, 4 of them to the exact score. Across all 130 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 57% of results.

San Marino 0–2 Belarus — the model said 10% / 18% / 72%, most likely 0-2: exact scoreline.
Montenegro 2–1 Latvia — the model said 56% / 27% / 17%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
Moldova 2–1 Kazakhstan — the model said 31% / 29% / 40%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
Serbia 1–3 Germany — the model said 19% / 24% / 57%, most likely 0-2: result correct.
Netherlands 7–0 Greece — the model said 38% / 28% / 34%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
Slovakia 2–2 Faroe Islands — the model said 57% / 26% / 17%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Bulgaria 0–5 Iceland — the model said 25% / 31% / 44%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
Liechtenstein 0–1 Azerbaijan — the model said 17% / 32% / 51%, most likely 0-1: exact scoreline.
Luxembourg 0–1 Estonia — the model said 30% / 36% / 34%, most likely 0-0: result missed.
Andorra 2–0 Gibraltar — the model said 20% / 29% / 51%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
Slovenia 0–0 Switzerland — the model said 23% / 28% / 49%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
Scotland 2–1 North Macedonia — the model said 52% / 28% / 20%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
Kosovo 0–0 Israel — the model said 41% / 31% / 28%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Norway 3–1 Wales — the model said 51% / 27% / 22%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
Georgia 0–2 Hungary — the model said 25% / 35% / 40%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
Portugal 1–4 Denmark — the model said 45% / 27% / 28%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Northern Ireland 1–0 Ukraine — the model said 35% / 33% / 32%, most likely 1-0: exact scoreline.
Austria 1–0 Rep. Of Ireland — the model said 38% / 29% / 33%, most likely 1-0: exact scoreline.
Romania 2–1 Poland — the model said 25% / 26% / 49%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
Sweden 3–2 Bosnia & Herzegovina — the model said 38% / 30% / 32%, most likely 1-0: result correct.

Nations League so far

Leading scorers: H. Kane (England) 7 goals, V. Gyökeres (Sweden) 6 goals, M. Olise (France) 5 goals.