SJK vs Mariehamn Finnish Premier League prediction & result
Final score: SJK 2-1 Mariehamn.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% SJK, 30% draw, 40% Mariehamn — fair odds of 3.33, 3.33 and 2.50.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Mariehamn at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — SJK vs Mariehamn
Line-ups
- 1R. PaunioG
- 5O. VäistöD
- 4Kelvin PiresD
- 2Facundo CostantiniD
- 22L. VesterbackaM
- 31E. OnuohaM
- 48A. TraoreM
- 15E. MömmöM
- 23A. WilsonM
- 7KelwinF
- 19E. MastokangasF
- 8A. BoströmM
- 51A. CisseF
- 26J. MoisioD
- 9J. StrengF
- 42AraújoM
- 49E. UdomD
- 28K. NwanegeD
- 27A. VelliosF
- 35J. ViitalaG
- 1K. LundG
- 27L. RichtnérD
- 2N. NurmiD
- 53F. GyamfiD
- 31Samson NgulubeD
- 23V. WidlundM
- 20E. PatutM
- 16A. HuttunenM
- 14Arvid BergvikM
- 18A. StroudM
- 19T. JakobsenF
- 3A. SoiniemiD
- 5T. KoivistoD
- 64M. HyvönenM
- 17Rasmus HolmbergM
- 12O. HeinoG
- 43L. AnderssonF
Form going into SJK vs Mariehamn
SJK
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to FF Jaro12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Turku PS8 September 2026
- D0-0away to AC Oulu31 August 2026
- L1-2Lahti21 August 2026
- L0-2away to Mariehamn15 August 2026
Mariehamn
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Turku PS12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Lahti8 September 2026
- W2-0FF Jaro31 August 2026
- W4-2away to KuPS23 August 2026
- W2-0SJK15 August 2026
What these results say
- SJK did not win any of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for SJK had two goals or fewer.
- Mariehamn scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Mariehamn won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Head-to-head: SJK vs Mariehamn
- 15 August 2026Mariehamn 2–0 SJKFinnish Premier League
- 10 April 2026SJK 3–0 MariehamnFinnish Premier League
- 28 June 2025SJK 4–1 MariehamnFinnish Premier League
- 19 April 2025Mariehamn 1–2 SJKFinnish Premier League
- 21 July 2024Mariehamn 0–4 SJKFinnish Premier League
The result against the call
SJK beat Mariehamn 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Mariehamn at 40% and given a win for SJK 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Arvid Bergvik 36' for Mariehamn, Kelwin Souza do Nascimento 64' for SJK, Aapo Boström 87' for SJK. Sent off: Foster gyamfi (Mariehamn) 80'.
How the call on SJK v Mariehamn has moved
First published on 4 Sep at 38% / 27% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 30% / 30% / 40%: the biggest move is SJK's chance of winning, down 8 points.
- SJK win30%▼ −8
- Draw30%▲ +3
- Mariehamn win40%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.