Inter Turku
vs
VPS
Veikkausliiga prediction & result
Final score: Inter Turku 1-0 VPS.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% Inter Turku, 24% draw, 18% VPS — fair odds of 1.72, 4.17 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Inter Turku 2.53, VPS 0.94.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: Inter Turku vs VPS
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Inter Turku at 58% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 634 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Inter Turku vs VPS
Line-ups
- 1E. HuuhtanenG
- 18S. SaarinenD
- 22L. KuittinenD
- 6R. IvanovD
- 2J. NiskaD
- 14J. LaineM
- 17B. AmpofoM
- 7H. SjogrellM
- 8J. Yli-KokkoM
- 16C. JephtaF
- 10A. Conteh
- 12E. VuorjokiG
- 5A. GranlundD
- 30Y. AmankwahD
- 4P. AhiabuM
- 19I. JarvinenM
- 24J. TauriainenD
- 11J. BotueF
- 34L. ProkopF
- 33M. SusoM
- 41M. JallohG
- 23M. NiemiD
- 6E. OkerekeD
- 19M. HaukiojaD
- 13O. OgunniyiM
- 2L. ManeD
- 3R. SimpsonD
- 7J. TurfkruierM
- 8P. LimaM
- 24Y. DaoussiM
- 27K. Kouassivi-BenissanM
- 12L. VayrynenG
- 21A. Adu-BoahenD
- 14S. LindholmM
- 26R. ForsbackaM
- 30J. VahteraM
- 34A. RaisanenM
- 17D. TerrnavaM
- 9C. HolmelundF
- 20X. OdhiamboF
Form going into Inter Turku vs VPS
Inter Turku
- L1-2away to HJK Helsinki9 September 2026
- W1-0KuPS31 August 2026
- D0-0away to Turku PS23 August 2026
- W3-2away to AC Oulu16 August 2026
VPS
- W1-0AC Oulu8 September 2026
- L0-1Lahti31 August 2026
- W1-0away to Ilves22 August 2026
- L1-3Turku PS14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Inter Turku | 22 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 29 | 16 | +13 | 42 |
| 6 | VPS | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Inter Turku vs VPS
- 14 September 2026Inter Turku 1–0 VPSVeikkausliiga
- 2 August 2026VPS 0–1 Inter TurkuVeikkausliiga
- 30 June 2026VPS 2–3 Inter TurkuSuomen Cup
- 4 April 2026Inter Turku 0–0 VPSVeikkausliiga
- 31 August 2025Inter Turku 2–1 VPSVeikkausliiga
- 19 April 2025VPS 0–2 Inter TurkuVeikkausliiga
Leading scorers: Inter Turku and VPS
Inter Turku
- J. Yli-Kokko2 goals1 assists
VPS
- L. Smyth5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.53 goals for Inter Turku and 0.94 for VPS; the game produced 1 and 0.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: H. Sjogrell 70' (Inter Turku).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Inter Turku the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.53 expected goals for Inter Turku against 0.94 for VPS. Inter Turku's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/2.68 for VPS.