Universidad Catolica Quito
vs
Independiente del Valle
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: Universidad Catolica Quito 1–2 Independiente del Valle
The model makes it 37% Universidad Catolica Quito, 25% draw, 38% Independiente del Valle — fair odds of 2.70, 4.00 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Universidad Catolica Quito 1.66, Independiente del Valle 1.69.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
A tight game: Universidad Catolica Quito and Independiente del Valle are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Universidad Catolica Quito's rating is built from 76 Ecuador LigaPro matches and Independiente del Valle's from 75, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Universidad Catolica Quito are 3rd on 54 points from 36 games; Independiente del Valle are top on 84 points from 35 games — Liga Pro, Championship Group.
- Universidad Catolica Quito have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Macara.
- Independiente del Valle are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 4-2 win away to Aucas.
- Last 6 meetings: Independiente del Valle 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 23 October 2026, ended Independiente del Valle 0–0 Universidad Catolica Quito.
More Ecuador LigaPro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Universidad Catolica Quito vs Independiente del Valle
Has the model earned this number?
Independiente del Valle at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Universidad Catolica Quito vs Independiente del Valle
Universidad Catolica Quito
Liga Pro
- D2-2away to Macara8 November 2026
- L1-2Aucas1 November 2026
- D0-0away to Independiente del Valle23 October 2026
- D1-1away to Barcelona SC18 October 2026
- L0-1Macara11 October 2026
Independiente del Valle
Liga Pro
- W4-2away to Aucas8 November 2026
- W2-0LDU de Quito1 November 2026
- D0-0Universidad Catolica Quito23 October 2026
- L0-1away to Macara17 October 2026
- W2-1Aucas10 October 2026
What these results say
- Universidad Catolica Quito did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Universidad Catolica Quito conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Universidad Catolica Quito | 36 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 56 | 35 | +21 | 54 |
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 35 | 27 | 3 | 5 | 81 | 37 | +44 | 84 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Universidad Catolica Quito vs Independiente del Valle
- 23 October 2026Independiente del Valle 0–0 Universidad Catolica QuitoLiga Pro
- 29 August 2026Independiente del Valle 2–2 Universidad Catolica QuitoLiga Pro
- 13 May 2026Universidad Catolica Quito 0–3 Independiente del ValleSupercopa de Ecuador
- 1 May 2026Universidad Catolica Quito 2–3 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
- 14 December 2025Universidad Catolica Quito 0–1 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
- 8 November 2025Independiente del Valle 0–2 Universidad Catolica QuitoLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Universidad Catolica Quito and Independiente del Valle
Universidad Catolica Quito
GoalsAssists
- J. Fajardo133
- M. Alonso84
Independiente del Valle
GoalsAssists
- C. González111
- D. Reasco94
- M. Perelló84
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Universidad Catolica Quito a 0% chance of the title and Independiente del Valle 100%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Independiente del Valle the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Universidad Catolica Quito against 1.69 for Independiente del Valle. Universidad Catolica Quito's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.13/1.26 for Independiente del Valle.
How the model reaches 38% for Independiente del Valle to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Independiente del Valle to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Universidad Catolica Quito's ratings add 4 points and Independiente del Valle's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Universidad Catolica Quito's ratings33%+4
- Independiente del Valle's ratings38%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Universidad Catolica Quito at home · Independiente del Valle away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: Universidad Catolica Quito 36, Independiente del Valle 35.
Universidad Catolica Quito score most often in the 46–60 minute window (16 goals); Independiente del Valle have let in 11 there.
Independiente del Valle score most often in the 46–60 minute window (16 goals); Universidad Catolica Quito have let in 8 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Universidad Catolica Quito
- at Aucas6 Dec · Liga Prowin 38%
- vs LDU de Quito13 Dec · Liga Prowin 46%
Independiente del Valle
- at LDU de Quito6 Dec · Liga Prowin 40%
- vs Barcelona SC13 Dec · Liga Prowin 55%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.