Ecuador LigaPro predictions

Sunday 22 November — 6 matches

• 21:00 UTC Tecnico Universitario vs Deportivo Cuenca — model 37% / 30% / 33%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.70 · 3.33 · 3.03. Evenly matched
• 21:00 UTC Independiente del Valle vs Macara — model 54% / 23% / 23%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.85 · 4.35 · 4.35. Evenly matched
• 21:00 UTC Universidad Catolica Quito vs Barcelona SC — model 43% / 28% / 29%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.33 · 3.57 · 3.45. Evenly matched
• 21:00 UTC LDU de Quito vs Aucas — model 49% / 28% / 23%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.04 · 3.57 · 4.35. Edge: LDU de Quito
• 21:00 UTC Manta FC vs Delfin SC — model 41% / 28% / 31%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.44 · 3.57 · 3.23. Evenly matched
• 21:00 UTC Orense SC vs Mushuc Runa SC — model 47% / 25% / 28%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.13 · 4.00 · 3.57. Evenly matched

Wednesday 25 November — 1 match

• 21:00 UTC Barcelona SC vs Independiente del Valle — model 37% / 26% / 37%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.70 · 3.85 · 2.70. Tight game · draw in reach

Sunday 29 November — 6 matches

• 21:00 UTC Delfin SC vs Orense SC — model 41% / 27% / 32%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.44 · 3.70 · 3.13. Evenly matched
• 21:00 UTC Barcelona SC vs Aucas — model 55% / 25% / 20%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.82 · 4.00 · 5.00. Edge: Barcelona SC
• 21:00 UTC Deportivo Cuenca vs Manta FC — model 49% / 27% / 24%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.04 · 3.70 · 4.17. Evenly matched
• 21:00 UTC Macara vs LDU de Quito — model 48% / 28% / 24%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.08 · 3.57 · 4.17. Evenly matched
• 21:00 UTC Universidad Catolica Quito vs Independiente del Valle — model 37% / 25% / 38%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.70 · 4.00 · 2.63. Tight game · draw in reach
• 21:00 UTC Mushuc Runa SC vs Tecnico Universitario — model 48% / 26% / 26%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.08 · 3.85 · 3.85. Evenly matched

Last round: the model's hits and misses

7–9 November: the model called the result of 3 of 8 matches, 1 of them to the exact score. Across all 40 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 40% of results.

• Libertad 0–1 Emelec — the model said 55% / 25% / 20%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
• Leones del Norte 1–1 Guayaquil City FC — the model said 47% / 27% / 26%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
• Macara 2–2 Universidad Catolica Quito — the model said 47% / 27% / 26%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
• Deportivo Cuenca 2–0 Orense SC — the model said 41% / 29% / 30%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
• Aucas 2–4 Independiente del Valle — the model said 28% / 25% / 47%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
• Barcelona SC 1–1 LDU de Quito — the model said 46% / 29% / 25%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
• Mushuc Runa SC 2–1 Delfin SC — the model said 45% / 27% / 28%, most likely 2-1: exact scoreline.
• Tecnico Universitario 1–2 Manta FC — the model said 47% / 27% / 26%, most likely 1-0: result missed.

Ecuador LigaPro so far

Top of the table

• 1. Independiente del Valle — 84 pts from 35 (27W 3D 5L, goals 81–37)
• 2. Macara — 67 pts from 36 (20W 7D 9L, goals 52–37)
• 3. Universidad Catolica Quito — 54 pts from 36 (14W 12D 10L, goals 56–35)
• 4. LDU de Quito — 54 pts from 36 (15W 9D 12L, goals 38–32)
• 5. Aucas — 54 pts from 36 (15W 9D 12L, goals 40–42)

The model's chance of finishing first in the Championship Group, from 10,000 simulations of the 13 matches left: Independiente del Valle over 99.9%.

Leading scorers: F. Posse (Macara) 17 goals, E. Mero (Guayaquil City FC) 13 goals, Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín (Libertad) 13 goals.