Liga MX predictions & fixtures

Saturday 21 November — 5 matches

01:00 UTC Puebla vs Atletico San Luis — model 40% / 29% / 31%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.50 · 3.45 · 3.23. Evenly matched
03:00 UTC Club Tijuana vs Atlante FC — model 57% / 25% / 18%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.75 · 4.00 · 5.56. Edge: Club Tijuana
03:00 UTC FC Juarez vs Atlas — model 36% / 26% / 38%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.78 · 3.85 · 2.63. Tight game · draw in reach
23:00 UTC Santos Laguna vs Leon — model 47% / 26% / 27%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.13 · 3.85 · 3.70. Evenly matched
23:00 UTC CF Pachuca vs Toluca — model 43% / 26% / 31%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.33 · 3.85 · 3.23. Evenly matched

Sunday 22 November — 3 matches

01:00 UTC Pumas UNAM vs Monterrey — model 47% / 25% / 28%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.13 · 4.00 · 3.57. Evenly matched
03:00 UTC Tigres UANL vs Club America — model 35% / 26% / 39%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.86 · 3.85 · 2.56. Edge: Club America
23:07 UTC Guadalajara Chivas vs Cruz Azul — model 45% / 26% / 29%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.22 · 3.85 · 3.45. Evenly matched

Monday 23 November — 1 match

01:00 UTC Club Queretaro vs Necaxa — model 44% / 29% / 27%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.27 · 3.45 · 3.70. Evenly matched

Last round: the model's hits and misses

14 November: the model called the result of 0 of 1 matches. Across all 135 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 39% of results.

Club Queretaro 0–1 Monterrey — the model said 38% / 27% / 35%, most likely 2-1: result missed.

Liga MX so far

Top of the table

1. Cruz Azul — 32 pts from 16 (10W 2D 4L, goals 37–26)
2. Club America — 30 pts from 16 (8W 6D 2L, goals 38–23)
3. Guadalajara Chivas — 30 pts from 16 (8W 6D 2L, goals 26–15)
4. Toluca — 27 pts from 16 (7W 6D 3L, goals 35–21)
5. Atlas — 27 pts from 16 (8W 3D 5L, goals 27–30)

The model's chance of finishing first in the Apertura, from 10,000 simulations of the 9 matches left: Cruz Azul 40.7%, Club America 30.3%, Guadalajara Chivas 29.1%.

Leading scorers: S. Rondón (CF Pachuca) 16 goals, H. Martín (Club America) 11 goals, J. Brunetta (Tigres UANL) 9 goals.