Apertura - 7 · 14 November 2026, 23:00 UTC

Club Queretaro vs Monterrey Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio La Corregidora, Santiago Querétaro
Referee: Luis Enrique Santander Aguirre
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Club Queretaro 0-1 Monterrey.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Club Queretaro, 28% draw, 36% Monterrey — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Club Queretaro 1.37, Monterrey 1.39.

Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Club Queretaro vs Monterrey

57%
Both teams to score
52%
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 13%1-2 8%2-1 8%

Has the model earned this number?

Club Queretaro at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Club Queretaro0%Draw2%Monterrey98%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

40'
Ricardo Chávez
45+3'
Jorge Rodríguez
45'
🔁César Garzaout: Aldo De Nigris
45'
🔁Ricardo Chávezout: Lucas Orellano
48'
⚽Diego Rossi
Daniel Parra
50'
Guillermo Allison
51'
51'
Roberto de la Rosa
🔁Iker Benito Sánchezout: José Hernández
55'
🔁Daniel Parraout: Paulo Victor
56'
65'
🔁Roberto de la Rosaout: Fidel Ambriz
🔁Carlos Villanuevaout: Denilson Muñoz
67'
Denilson Muñoz
68'
Lucas Abascia
71'
76'
🔁Diego Rossiout: Jorge Rodríguez
🔁Ali Ávilaout: Eduardo Perez
77'
🔁Carlo Garciaout: Waldo Madrid
77'
•Eduardo Perez
79'
Eduardo Perez
80'
Diego Reyes
90+3'

Match stats — Club Queretaro vs Monterrey

28%Possession72%
12Shots16
2On target5
4Corners6
0.6xG1.74

Goals against chances

Club Queretaro0 from 0.60 xGless than the chances were worth
Monterrey1 from 1.74 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Club Queretaro 5-3-2
  • 25G. AllisonG
  • 16E. GiménezD
  • 15C. VillanuevaD
  • 13D. ReyesD
  • 2L. AbasciaD
  • 27D. ParraD
  • 4Carlo AdrianoM
  • 28J. ArellanoM
  • 11M. CoronelM
  • 7Iker BenitoF
  • 9A. ÁvilaF
Substitutes
  • 26E. PérezF
  • 12Paulo VictorD
  • 8B. ParraM
  • 17D. MuñozM
  • 29W. MadridM
  • 1J. HernándezG
  • 241Emiliano Guerrero RamírezM
  • 24B. DuarteD
  • 23J. RoblesM
Coach: E. González
Monterrey 4-2-3-1
  • 1E. AndradaG
  • 2R. ChávezD
  • 4V. GuzmánD
  • 19A. AcevesD
  • 3G. ArteagaD
  • 18Cesar Garza CantuM
  • 25O. PinedaM
  • 14É. AguirreM
  • 9D. RossiM
  • 7L. OcamposM
  • 27R. de la RosaF
Substitutes
  • 5F. AmbrízM
  • 34C. BustosD
  • 22L. CárdenasG
  • 10L. OrellanoF
  • 21L. ReyesD
  • 30J. RodríguezM
  • 35S. RodriguezM
  • 191L. RojasM
  • 244Paxon Levi Ruffin TamezM
Coach: M. Almeyda

Form going into Club Queretaro vs Monterrey

Club Queretaro

Liga MX

  • L0-2Puebla9 November 2026
  • L1-3away to FC Juarez31 October 2026
  • L1-3Cruz Azul26 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Atletico San Luis21 October 2026

Monterrey

Liga MX

  • L0-4away to Toluca8 November 2026
  • D3-3Club Tijuana1 November 2026
  • L0-1Guadalajara Chivas25 October 2026
  • W4-1away to Puebla22 October 2026

What these results say

  • Club Queretaro did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Club Queretaro conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Club Queretaro scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Monterrey conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Monterrey failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Monterrey had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Club Queretaro166281824-620
7Monterrey167362725+224

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Club Queretaro vs Monterrey

  • 5 March 2026Monterrey 4–0 Club QueretaroLiga MX
  • 14 September 2025Club Queretaro 0–1 MonterreyLiga MX
  • 16 February 2025Club Queretaro 2–4 MonterreyLiga MX
  • 21 July 2024Monterrey 2–1 Club QueretaroLiga MX
  • 25 January 2024Monterrey 1–1 Club QueretaroLiga MX
  • 11 November 2023Club Queretaro 0–0 MonterreyLiga MX

The full Club Queretaro vs Monterrey record →

Leading scorers: Club Queretaro and Monterrey

Club Queretaro

GoalsAssists

  • A. Ávila60

Monterrey

GoalsAssists

  • L. Ocampos73
  • H. Cuypers61
  • D. Rossi53

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Monterrey (7th, with Club Queretaro 12th), while our numbers lean to Club Queretaro. Club Queretaro rate 0.58 in attack and 1.32 in defence, Monterrey 0.81 and 1.37 (lower is better in defence), so Club Queretaro have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 4-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Club Queretaro a 24.9% chance to finish in the top eight: 54.2% after a win, 9.8% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 0.0%, 24.9 points lower than before the match.

For Monterrey the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 32.1% going in: 62.2% after a win, 23.0% after a draw, 9.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 62.2%, 30.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Club Queretaro Monterrey
0.58 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.81
1.32 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.37
1.37 Model expected goals (this match) 1.39

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Club Queretaro the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Club Queretaro against 1.39 for Monterrey. Club Queretaro's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.37 for Monterrey.

Club Queretaro carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.59 for Monterrey. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 36% for Club Queretaro to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Club Queretaro to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Club Queretaro's ratings take away 5 points and Monterrey's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 36%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage45%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level44%−1
  4. Club Queretaro's ratings39%−5
  5. Monterrey's ratings36%−3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.