Regular Season - 9 · 19 November 2026, 15:25 UTC

Al Ain vs Al-Dhafra Pro League prediction

Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium, Al Ain

Our model says: Al Ain 2–0 Al-Dhafra

The model makes it 69% Al Ain, 19% draw, 12% Al-Dhafra — fair odds of 1.45, 5.26 and 8.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).

Expected goals: Al Ain 2.50, Al-Dhafra 0.78.

Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.

One-sided: Al Ain are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Al Ain's rating is built from 33 UAE Pro League matches and Al-Dhafra's from 33, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 413 matches.

Key facts

  • Al Ain are 3rd on 14 points from 7 games; Al-Dhafra are 12th on 6 points from 7 games — Pro League.
  • Al Ain are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Al Wahda FC.
  • Al-Dhafra have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Al-Ittihad Kalba.
  • Last 6 meetings: Al Ain 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended Al Ain 5–0 Al-Dhafra.

More UAE Pro League predictions

All UAE Pro League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Al Ain vs Al-Dhafra

50%
Both teams to score
63%
Over 2.5 goals
37%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Al Ain win Draw Al-Dhafra win
  1. 2–012%
  2. 3–010%
  3. 2–19%
  4. 1–09%
  5. 1–18%
  6. 3–18%
  7. 4–06%

Scores read Al Ain first; the other scorelines share the remaining 38%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Al Ain at 69%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Al Ain vs Al-Dhafra

Al Ain

Pro League

  • D0-0away to Al Wahda FC8 November 2026
  • L0-2away to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai17 October 2026
  • D2-2Al-Wasl FC10 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Al-Ittihad Kalba4 September 2026
  • W2-1Al Nasr29 August 2026

Al-Dhafra

Pro League

  • L1-3Al-Ittihad Kalba7 November 2026
  • W5-1Dubai United16 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Hatta SC11 September 2026
  • L0-1Al Wahda FC6 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Khorfakkan29 August 2026

What these results say

  • Al-Dhafra conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

United Arab Emirates Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Al Ain7421127+514
12Al-Dhafra7205913-46

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Al Ain

Chance to finish in the top two · 51% today

Win 54%
Draw 39%
Defeat 32%

Al-Dhafra

Chance to finish in the bottom two · 34% today

Win 17%
Draw 28%
Defeat 37%

From our Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Al Ain vs Al-Dhafra

  • 10 May 2026Al Ain 5–0 Al-DhafraPro League
  • 8 January 2026Al-Dhafra 1–2 Al AinPro League
  • 5 February 2023Al-Dhafra 1–4 Al AinPro League
  • 10 September 2022Al Ain 7–0 Al-DhafraPro League
  • 7 May 2022Al-Dhafra 0–1 Al AinPro League
  • 2 November 2021Al Ain 1–0 Al-DhafraPro League

Leading scorers: Al Ain and Al-Dhafra

Al Ain

No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.

Al-Dhafra

GoalsAssists

  • S. Kaba31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al Ain a 26.9% chance of the title and Al-Dhafra 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Al Ain v Al-Dhafra has moved

First published on 5 Nov at 67% / 20% / 13% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 69% / 19% / 12%: the biggest move is Al Ain's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Al Ain win69%▲ +2
  2. Draw19%▼ −1
  3. Al-Dhafra win12%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Al Ain Al-Dhafra
0.79 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.49
1.05 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.88
2.50 Model expected goals (this match) 0.78

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Al Ain the highest probability at 69%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.50 expected goals for Al Ain against 0.78 for Al-Dhafra. Al Ain's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.88 for Al-Dhafra.

Al Ain carry a model rating of 6.71 against 6.18 for Al-Dhafra.

How the model reaches 69% for Al Ain to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Al Ain to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Al Ain's ratings add 14 points and Al-Dhafra's ratings add 16 points, which lands on the published 69%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage40%+3
  3. Both sides at this match's level39%−1
  4. Al Ain's ratings53%+14
  5. Al-Dhafra's ratings69%+16

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Al AinAl-Dhafra
7Matches7
4W 2D 1LRecord2W 0D 5L
12 1.7 per gameGoals scored9 1.3 per game
7 1.0 per gameGoals conceded13 1.9 per game
3 of 7Clean sheets0 of 7
2 of 7Failed to score3 of 7
1 of 2Penalties scored1 of 2
13 1.9 per gameYellow cards14 2.0 per game
1Red cards1
5-3-2 4×Usual shape5-4-1 2×

Al Ain at home · Al-Dhafra away

3Played3
2W 1D 0LRecord1W 0D 2L
6–3Goals for – against2–5
1 of 3Clean sheets0 of 3

League matches only, Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Pro League matches this season: Al Ain 7, Al-Dhafra 7.

Al Ain scored 014114
Al-Dhafra conceded 002332
Al-Dhafra scored 022311
Al Ain conceded 104300

Al-Dhafra score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Al Ain have let in 3 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Al Ain

Al-Dhafra

  • vs Baniyas SC5 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 37%
  • vs Al Nasr13 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 24%
  • at Al-Jazira25 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 15%
  • at Al-Wasl FC29 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 15%
  • vs Ajman2 Jan · Pro Leaguewin 33%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.