UAE Pro League predictions

Thursday 19 November — 2 matches

• 12:45 UTC Al-Wasl FC vs Hatta SC — model 67% / 20% / 13%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.49 · 5.00 · 7.69. One-sided: Al-Wasl FC
• 15:25 UTC Al Ain vs Al-Dhafra — model 69% / 19% / 12%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.45 · 5.26 · 8.33. One-sided: Al Ain

Friday 20 November — 2 matches

• 12:45 UTC Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC — model 31% / 25% / 44%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.23 · 4.00 · 2.27. Edge: Sharjah FC
• 15:25 UTC Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman — model 60% / 22% / 18%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.67 · 4.55 · 5.56. One-sided: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

Saturday 21 November — 3 matches

• 12:45 UTC Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr — model 26% / 27% / 47%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.85 · 3.70 · 2.13. Edge: Al Nasr
• 12:45 UTC Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira — model 21% / 23% / 56%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 4.76 · 4.35 · 1.79. One-sided: Al-Jazira
• 15:25 UTC Dubai United vs Al Wahda FC — model 27% / 23% / 50%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.70 · 4.35 · 2.00. Edge: Al Wahda FC

Last round: the model's hits and misses

7–8 November: the model called the result of 3 of 7 matches, 2 of them to the exact score. Across all 28 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 36% of results.

• Al-Dhafra 1–3 Al-Ittihad Kalba — the model said 39% / 26% / 35%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
• Sharjah FC 2–0 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — the model said 23% / 24% / 53%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
• Hatta SC 1–2 Khorfakkan — the model said 33% / 26% / 41%, most likely 1-2: exact scoreline.
• Al-Jazira 2–1 Al-Wasl FC — the model said 38% / 27% / 35%, most likely 2-1: exact scoreline.
• Al Nasr 4–1 Dubai United — the model said 52% / 22% / 26%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
• Ajman 1–1 Baniyas SC — the model said 45% / 26% / 29%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
• Al Wahda FC 0–0 Al Ain — the model said 25% / 27% / 48%, most likely 0-1: result missed.

UAE Pro League so far

Top of the table

• 1. Al-Jazira — 17 pts from 7 (5W 2D 0L, goals 15–5)
• 2. Sharjah FC — 15 pts from 7 (5W 0D 2L, goals 15–8)
• 3. Al Ain — 14 pts from 7 (4W 2D 1L, goals 12–7)
• 4. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — 13 pts from 7 (4W 1D 2L, goals 12–7)
• 5. Al Wahda FC — 13 pts from 7 (4W 1D 2L, goals 9–7)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 70 matches left: Al-Jazira 34.2%, Al Ain 26.9%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 18.1%.

Leading scorers: N. Giménez (Al-Wasl FC) 4 goals, Willy Semedo (Dubai United) 4 goals, Victor Henrique (Ajman) 3 goals.