Regular Season - 35 · 19 November 2026, 22:30 UTC

Vitoria vs RB Bragantino Serie A prediction

Barradao, Salvador

Our model says: Vitoria 0–1 RB Bragantino

The model makes it 34% Vitoria, 30% draw, 36% RB Bragantino — fair odds of 2.94, 3.33 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Vitoria 1.15, RB Bragantino 1.22.

Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.

A tight game: Vitoria and RB Bragantino are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Vitoria's rating is built from 72 Brazilian Serie A matches and RB Bragantino's from 72, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,101 matches.

Key facts

  • Vitoria are 15th on 38 points from 34 games; RB Bragantino are 8th on 47 points from 34 games — Serie A.
  • Vitoria have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Fluminense.
  • RB Bragantino have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Santos.
  • Last 6 meetings: RB Bragantino 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 17 May 2026, ended RB Bragantino 2–0 Vitoria.

More Brazilian Serie A predictions

All Brazilian Serie A predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Vitoria vs RB Bragantino

49%
Both teams to score
42%
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Vitoria win Draw RB Bragantino win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 0–111%
  3. 1–010%
  4. 0–010%
  5. 1–28%
  6. 2–18%
  7. 0–27%

Scores read Vitoria first; the other scorelines share the remaining 32%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

RB Bragantino at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Vitoria vs RB Bragantino

Vitoria

Serie A

  • L0-3Fluminense6 November 2026
  • L0-2away to Coritiba31 October 2026
  • D1-1Atletico Paranaense24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Corinthians19 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Sao Paulo11 October 2026

RB Bragantino

Serie A

  • W2-1Santos2 November 2026
  • W3-0Chapecoense28 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Palmeiras24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Remo18 October 2026
  • W4-2Cruzeiro13 October 2026

What these results say

  • Vitoria did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Vitoria conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • RB Bragantino scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • RB Bragantino conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Vitoria34108163551-1638
8RB Bragantino34138134439+547

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Vitoria

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 55% today

Win 34%
Draw 59%
Defeat 73%

From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Vitoria vs RB Bragantino

  • 17 May 2026RB Bragantino 2–0 VitoriaSerie A
  • 3 December 2025RB Bragantino 4–0 VitoriaSerie A
  • 20 July 2025Vitoria 1–0 RB BragantinoSerie A
  • 19 October 2024Vitoria 1–0 RB BragantinoSerie A
  • 23 June 2024RB Bragantino 2–1 VitoriaSerie A
  • 29 September 2019Bragantino 2–0 VitoriaSerie B

The full Vitoria vs RB Bragantino record →

Leading scorers: Vitoria and RB Bragantino

Vitoria

GoalsAssists

  • Rene101

RB Bragantino

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 44 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

How the call on Vitoria v RB Bragantino has moved

First published on 5 Nov at 36% / 30% / 34% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 34% / 30% / 36%: the biggest move is Vitoria's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Vitoria win34%▼ −2
  2. Draw30%=
  3. RB Bragantino win36%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Vitoria RB Bragantino
0.68 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.86
1.27 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.07
1.15 Model expected goals (this match) 1.22

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives RB Bragantino the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Vitoria against 1.22 for RB Bragantino. Vitoria's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.07 for RB Bragantino.

How the model reaches 36% for RB Bragantino to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for RB Bragantino to win. Then home advantage takes away 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Vitoria's ratings add 5 points and RB Bragantino's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 36%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage28%−8
  3. Both sides at this match's level27%−1
  4. Vitoria's ratings32%+5
  5. RB Bragantino's ratings36%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

VitoriaRB Bragantino
34Matches34
10W 8D 16LRecord13W 8D 13L
35 1.0 per gameGoals scored44 1.3 per game
51 1.5 per gameGoals conceded39 1.1 per game
11 of 34Clean sheets9 of 34
11 of 34Failed to score8 of 34
4 of 4Penalties scored2 of 5
78 2.3 per gameYellow cards87 2.6 per game
4Red cards5
4-2-3-1 12×Usual shape4-2-3-1 26×

Vitoria at home · RB Bragantino away

17Played17
10W 2D 5LRecord4W 5D 8L
23–16Goals for – against15–21
10 of 17Clean sheets3 of 17

League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Serie A matches this season: Vitoria 34, RB Bragantino 34.

Vitoria scored 3106595
RB Bragantino conceded 5810968

Vitoria score most often in the 16–30 minute window (10 goals); RB Bragantino have let in 8 there.

RB Bragantino scored 5511637
Vitoria conceded 35136912

RB Bragantino score most often in the 31–45 minute window (11 goals); Vitoria have let in 13 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Vitoria

RB Bragantino

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.