Al-Hazm
vs
Al-Nassr
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al-Hazm 1–2 Al-Nassr
The model makes it 17% Al-Hazm, 20% draw, 63% Al-Nassr — fair odds of 5.88, 5.00 and 1.59.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Al-Hazm 1.08, Al-Nassr 2.53.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Al-Nassr are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Al-Hazm's rating is built from 46 Saudi Pro League matches and Al-Nassr's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 716 matches.
Key facts
- Al-Hazm are 14th on 10 points from 12 games; Al-Nassr are 3rd on 28 points from 11 games — Pro League.
- Al-Hazm have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to Al Khaleej Saihat.
- Al-Nassr are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 5-3 win at home to Al Kholood.
- Last 6 meetings: Al-Nassr 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 February 2026, ended Al-Nassr 4–0 Al-Hazm.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Hazm vs Al-Nassr
Has the model earned this number?
Al-Nassr at 63%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al-Hazm vs Al-Nassr
Al-Hazm
Pro League
- L2-4away to Al Khaleej Saihat29 October 2026
- D2-2Al-Fayha22 October 2026
- L0-1away to Al-Hilal19 October 2026
- L2-3Al-Fateh15 October 2026
- D1-1NEOM10 October 2026
Al-Nassr
Pro League
- W5-3Al Kholood29 October 2026
- W3-1away to Al-Faisaly FC23 October 2026
- W1-0NEOM20 October 2026
- W3-0Al Diriyah9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Al Khaleej Saihat12 September 2026
What these results say
- Al-Hazm did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Al-Hazm conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al-Hazm scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Nassr went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Al-Nassr scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al-Nassr won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Saudi Arabia Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Al-Hazm | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 10 |
| 3 | Al-Nassr | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 11 | +17 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Al-Hazm
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 22% today
Al-Nassr
Chance to win the league · 17% today
From our Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Al-Hazm vs Al-Nassr
- 21 February 2026Al-Nassr 4–0 Al-HazmPro League
- 25 October 2025Al-Hazm 0–2 Al-NassrPro League
- 23 September 2024Al-Hazm 1–2 Al-NassrKing's Cup
- 29 February 2024Al-Nassr 4–4 Al-HazmPro League
- 2 September 2023Al-Hazm 1–5 Al-NassrPro League
- 23 June 2022Al-Hazm 1–4 Al-NassrPro League
Leading scorers: Al-Hazm and Al-Nassr
Al-Hazm
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Al-Nassr
GoalsAssists
- Cristiano Ronaldo80
- Ângelo53
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al-Hazm a 0% chance of the title and Al-Nassr 16.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Al-Hazm v Al-Nassr has moved
First published on 23 Oct at 16% / 22% / 62% (home / draw / away). After 3 updates it reads 17% / 20% / 63%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.
- Al-Hazm win17%▲ +1
- Draw20%▼ −2
- Al-Nassr win63%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Nassr the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Al-Hazm against 2.53 for Al-Nassr. Al-Hazm's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.16/1.02 for Al-Nassr.
How the model reaches 63% for Al-Nassr to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Al-Nassr to win. Then home advantage takes away 3 points, Al-Hazm's ratings add 14 points and Al-Nassr's ratings add 15 points, which lands on the published 63%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage34%−3
- Al-Hazm's ratings48%+14
- Al-Nassr's ratings63%+15
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Al-Hazm at home · Al-Nassr away
League matches only, Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al-Hazm 12, Al-Nassr 11.
Al-Nassr score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Al-Hazm have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Al-Hazm
- at Al Riyadh5 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 40%
- at Al-Ettifaq12 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 27%
- vs Al-Qadisiyah FC15 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 15%
- at Al Kholood31 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 37%
- vs Abha9 Jan · Pro Leaguewin 43%
Al-Nassr
- vs Al-Qadisiyah FC4 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 39%
- at Al-Gharafa8 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 61%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.