Saudi Pro League predictions & fixtures

Friday 20 November — 1 match

17:30 UTC Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr — model 34% / 23% / 43%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.94 · 4.35 · 2.33. Evenly matched

Thursday 26 November — 3 matches

14:25 UTC Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh — model 41% / 27% / 32%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.44 · 3.70 · 3.13. Evenly matched
15:05 UTC Abha vs Al Shabab — model 25% / 27% / 48%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 4.00 · 3.70 · 2.08. Edge: Al Shabab
17:30 UTC Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Diriyah — model 34% / 30% / 36%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 2.94 · 3.33 · 2.78. Tight game · draw in reach

Friday 27 November — 3 matches

12:15 UTC Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Saihat — model 36% / 25% / 39%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.78 · 4.00 · 2.56. Tight game · draw in reach
14:20 UTC Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha — model 69% / 18% / 13%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.45 · 5.56 · 7.69. One-sided: Al-Qadisiyah FC
17:30 UTC Al-Ittihad vs NEOM — model 41% / 28% / 31%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.44 · 3.57 · 3.23. Evenly matched

Saturday 28 November — 3 matches

12:15 UTC Al-Hazm vs Al-Nassr — model 17% / 20% / 63%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 5.88 · 5.00 · 1.59. One-sided: Al-Nassr
14:20 UTC Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal — model 17% / 22% / 61%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 5.88 · 4.55 · 1.64. One-sided: Al-Hilal
17:30 UTC Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon — model 63% / 21% / 16%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.59 · 4.76 · 6.25. One-sided: Al-Ahli Jeddah

Last round: the model's hits and misses

29–31 October: the model called the result of 6 of 9 matches. Across all 69 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 59% of results.

Al Khaleej Saihat 4–2 Al-Hazm — the model said 38% / 27% / 35%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
Al-Nassr 5–3 Al Kholood — the model said 75% / 15% / 10%, most likely 3-0: result correct.
Al Riyadh 0–6 Al-Qadisiyah FC — the model said 14% / 18% / 68%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
Abha 1–1 Al-Ittihad — the model said 18% / 25% / 57%, most likely 0-2: result missed.
Al Diriyah 1–2 NEOM — the model said 29% / 33% / 38%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
Al Shabab 6–1 Al-Ahli Jeddah — the model said 20% / 22% / 58%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
Al Taawon 1–1 Al-Ettifaq — the model said 29% / 28% / 43%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
Al-Fayha 4–1 Al-Faisaly FC — the model said 38% / 27% / 35%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
Al-Hilal 2–0 Al-Fateh — the model said 78% / 14% / 8%, most likely 3-0: result correct.

Saudi Pro League so far

Top of the table

1. Al-Hilal — 30 pts from 11 (10W 0D 1L, goals 32–9)
2. Al-Qadisiyah FC — 28 pts from 12 (9W 1D 2L, goals 32–12)
3. Al-Nassr — 28 pts from 11 (9W 1D 1L, goals 28–11)
4. Al-Ittihad — 24 pts from 11 (7W 3D 1L, goals 21–11)
5. NEOM — 22 pts from 12 (7W 1D 4L, goals 18–10)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 202 matches left: Al-Hilal 61.3%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 19.8%, Al-Nassr 16.7%.

Leading scorers: I. Toney (Al-Ahli Jeddah) 13 goals, T. Reijnders (Al-Qadisiyah FC) 8 goals, Cristiano Ronaldo (Al-Nassr) 8 goals.