Manchester United
vs
Brentford
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Manchester United 2–1 Brentford
The model makes it 42% Manchester United, 25% draw, 33% Brentford — fair odds of 2.38, 4.00 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Manchester United 1.86, Brentford 1.58.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Manchester United's rating is built from 48 Premier League matches and Brentford's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 860 matches.
Key facts
- Manchester United are 18th on 8 points from 10 games; Brentford are 8th on 14 points from 10 games — Premier League.
- Manchester United have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 4-4 draw at home to Aston Villa.
- Brentford have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Brighton.
- Last 6 meetings: Manchester United 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 27 April 2026, ended Manchester United 2–1 Brentford.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Manchester United vs Brentford
Has the model earned this number?
Manchester United at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Manchester United vs Brentford
Manchester United
Premier League
- D4-4Aston Villa8 November 2026
- L0-2away to Chelsea31 October 2026
- L0-3Bournemouth25 October 2026
- D1-1away to Leeds18 October 2026
- D1-1Tottenham10 October 2026
Brentford
Premier League
- L0-2away to Brighton8 November 2026
- W2-0Nottingham Forest31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Hull City25 October 2026
- L1-2Liverpool17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Aston Villa10 October 2026
What these results say
- Manchester United did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Manchester United conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Brentford failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Brentford scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Brentford conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Manchester United | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 8 |
| 8 | Brentford | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Manchester United
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 6% today
Brentford
Chance to finish in the top four · 10% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Manchester United vs Brentford
- 27 April 2026Manchester United 2–1 BrentfordPremier League
- 27 September 2025Brentford 3–1 Manchester UnitedPremier League
- 4 May 2025Brentford 4–3 Manchester UnitedPremier League
- 19 October 2024Manchester United 2–1 BrentfordPremier League
- 30 March 2024Brentford 1–1 Manchester UnitedPremier League
- 7 October 2023Manchester United 2–1 BrentfordPremier League
Leading scorers: Manchester United and Brentford
Manchester United
GoalsAssists
- Bruno Fernandes42
- B. Mbeumo40
Brentford
GoalsAssists
- K. Schade30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Brentford (8th, with Manchester United 18th), while our numbers lean to Manchester United. Manchester United rate 1.34 in attack and 1.02 in defence, Brentford 1.13 and 0.87 (lower is better in defence), so Manchester United have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 6-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Manchester United a 0% chance of the title and Brentford 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Manchester United the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Manchester United against 1.58 for Brentford. Manchester United's attack/defence rating is 1.34/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.13/0.87 for Brentford.
How the model reaches 42% for Manchester United to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Manchester United to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Manchester United's ratings add 1 point and Brentford's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage41%+4
- Both sides at this match's level42%+1
- Manchester United's ratings43%+1
- Brentford's ratings42%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Manchester United at home · Brentford away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Manchester UnitedBrentford
Manchester United are 18th after 10 Premier League matches (between 10th and 19th so far); Brentford are 8th after 10 (between 2nd and 7th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Manchester United 10, Brentford 10.
Manchester United score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Brentford have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Manchester United
- at Newcastle2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 43%
- vs Coventry5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 59%
- vs RB Leipzig8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 40%
Brentford
- vs Arsenal2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 23%
- vs Manchester City5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- at Fulham12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 39%
- vs Newcastle19 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 50%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.