Aris
vs
Nea Salamis
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Aris 2–1 Nea Salamis
The model makes it 54% Aris, 23% draw, 23% Nea Salamis — fair odds of 1.85, 4.35 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Aris 2.12, Nea Salamis 1.21.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to Aris: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Aris's rating is built from 45 Cypriot First Division matches and Nea Salamis's from 9, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Aris are 7th on 15 points from 9 games; Nea Salamis are 10th on 8 points from 9 games — 1. Division.
- Aris have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Apoel Nicosia.
- Nea Salamis have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Omonia Aradippou.
- Last 6 meetings: Aris 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 February 2025, ended Nea Salamis 2–2 Aris.
More Cypriot First Division predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Aris vs Nea Salamis
Has the model earned this number?
Aris at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Aris vs Nea Salamis
Aris
1. Division
- L1-3away to Apoel Nicosia8 November 2026
- W2-1Anorthosis1 November 2026
- W3-1away to AEL25 October 2026
- D1-1AEK Larnaca18 October 2026
- W2-1away to Olympiakos11 October 2026
Nea Salamis
1. Division
- W3-2Omonia Aradippou6 November 2026
- L0-1away to Omonia 29is Maiou1 November 2026
- D0-0Pafos26 October 2026
- L2-4away to Apollon Limassol17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Apoel Nicosia10 October 2026
What these results say
- Aris scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Aris conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Aris.
- Nea Salamis failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nea Salamis conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Cyprus 1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Aris | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 15 |
| 10 | Nea Salamis | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Aris
Chance to finish in the top six · 61% today
Nea Salamis
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 21% today
From our 1. Division season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Aris vs Nea Salamis
- 1 February 2025Nea Salamis 2–2 Aris1. Division
- 26 October 2024Aris 2–1 Nea Salamis1. Division
- 6 February 2024Nea Salamis 0–3 Aris1. Division
- 4 November 2023Aris 2–1 Nea Salamis1. Division
- 18 February 2023Aris 3–0 Nea Salamis1. Division
- 11 November 2022Nea Salamis 1–3 Aris1. Division
Leading scorers: Aris and Nea Salamis
Aris
GoalsAssists
- R. Effaghe40
Nea Salamis
GoalsAssists
- S. Grandsir30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Aris a 0.6% chance of the title and Nea Salamis 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aris the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Aris against 1.21 for Nea Salamis. Aris's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.63 for Nea Salamis.
How the model reaches 54% for Aris to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Aris to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Aris's ratings add 3 points and Nea Salamis's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 54%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level46%+2
- Aris's ratings49%+3
- Nea Salamis's ratings54%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Aris at home · Nea Salamis away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Aris 9, Nea Salamis 9.
Aris score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Nea Salamis have let in 4 there.
Nea Salamis score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Aris have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Aris
- at Pafos29 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 22%
- vs Omonia 29is Maiou3 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 55%
- at Omonia Aradippou7 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 40%
- at Apollon Limassol13 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 22%
- at Omonia Nicosia20 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 13%
Nea Salamis
- vs Omonia Nicosia30 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 18%
- at Krasava Ypsonas3 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 36%
- vs Karmiotissa8 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 61%
- vs Olympiakos13 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 40%
- at AEK Larnaca20 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 12%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.