Regular Season - 11 · 29 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

Pafos vs Aris 1. Division prediction

Stelios Kyriakides Stadium, Pafos

Our model says: Pafos 1–0 Aris

The model makes it 52% Pafos, 26% draw, 22% Aris — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Pafos 1.76, Aris 0.95.

Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.

Edge to Pafos: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Pafos's rating is built from 45 Cypriot First Division matches and Aris's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Pafos are 6th on 16 points from 9 games; Aris are 7th on 15 points from 9 games — 1. Division.
  • Pafos are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 4-2 win at home to Omonia 29is Maiou.
  • Aris have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Apoel Nicosia.
  • Last 6 meetings: Pafos 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended Pafos 2–0 Aris.

More Cypriot First Division predictions

All Cypriot First Division predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Pafos vs Aris

51%
Both teams to score
51%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Pafos win Draw Aris win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 1–011%
  3. 2–010%
  4. 2–110%
  5. 0–07%
  6. 3–06%
  7. 0–16%

Scores read Pafos first; the other scorelines share the remaining 38%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Pafos at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Pafos vs Aris

Pafos

1. Division

  • W4-2Omonia 29is Maiou8 November 2026
  • D2-2away to Apollon Limassol31 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Nea Salamis26 October 2026
  • D0-0Apoel Nicosia19 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Anorthosis11 October 2026

Aris

1. Division

  • L1-3away to Apoel Nicosia8 November 2026
  • W2-1Anorthosis1 November 2026
  • W3-1away to AEL25 October 2026
  • D1-1AEK Larnaca18 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Olympiakos11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Pafos went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Aris scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Aris conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Aris.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Cyprus 1. Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Pafos9441137+616
7Aris94321313015

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Pafos vs Aris

  • 10 May 2026Pafos 2–0 Aris1. Division
  • 14 April 2026Aris 1–1 Pafos1. Division
  • 1 March 2026Aris 2–2 Pafos1. Division
  • 21 November 2025Pafos 2–1 Aris1. Division
  • 4 May 2025Pafos 4–0 Aris1. Division
  • 2 April 2025Aris 0–1 Pafos1. Division

Leading scorers: Pafos and Aris

Pafos

GoalsAssists

  • Lelê20

Aris

GoalsAssists

  • R. Effaghe40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Pafos a 4.6% chance of the title and Aris 0.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Pafos Aris
0.82 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.8
0.99 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.32
1.76 Model expected goals (this match) 0.95

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Pafos the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Pafos against 0.95 for Aris. Pafos's attack/defence rating is 0.82/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.32 for Aris.

Pafos carry a model rating of 6.76 against 6.6 for Aris.

How the model reaches 52% for Pafos to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Pafos to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Pafos's ratings add 4 points and Aris's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 52%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level43%−1
  4. Pafos's ratings47%+4
  5. Aris's ratings52%+5

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

PafosAris
9Matches9
4W 4D 1LRecord4W 3D 2L
13 1.4 per gameGoals scored13 1.4 per game
7 0.8 per gameGoals conceded13 1.4 per game
5 of 9Clean sheets2 of 9
4 of 9Failed to score1 of 9
1 of 1Penalties scored1 of 1
22 2.4 per gameYellow cards28 3.1 per game
0Red cards2
4-2-3-1 3×Usual shape4-2-3-1 8×

Pafos at home · Aris away

4Played4
1W 2D 1LRecord3W 0D 1L
4–4Goals for – against7–5
2 of 4Clean sheets1 of 4

League matches only, 1. Division, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 1. Division matches this season: Pafos 9, Aris 9.

Pafos scored 032611
Aris conceded 201324

Pafos score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Aris have let in 3 there.

Aris scored 241223
Pafos conceded 002311

Aris score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Pafos have let in 0 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Pafos

  • at Omonia Nicosia3 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 18%
  • vs Krasava Ypsonas6 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 66%
  • at Mjallby AIF10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 49%

Aris

  • vs Omonia 29is Maiou3 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 55%
  • at Omonia Aradippou7 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 40%
  • at Apollon Limassol13 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 22%
  • at Omonia Nicosia20 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 13%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.