Cypriot First Division predictions

Saturday 21 November — 3 matches

• 14:00 UTC Omonia Aradippou vs Pafos — model 24% / 30% / 46%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 4.17 · 3.33 · 2.17. One-sided: Pafos
• 15:00 UTC Omonia Nicosia vs Apoel Nicosia — model 62% / 22% / 16%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.61 · 4.55 · 6.25. One-sided: Omonia Nicosia
• 17:00 UTC Aris vs Nea Salamis — model 54% / 23% / 23%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.85 · 4.35 · 4.35. Edge: Aris

Sunday 22 November — 3 matches

• 13:00 UTC Olympiakos vs AEK Larnaca — model 27% / 29% / 44%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.70 · 3.45 · 2.27. One-sided: AEK Larnaca
• 15:00 UTC Karmiotissa vs AEL — model 29% / 28% / 43%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.45 · 3.57 · 2.33. Edge: AEL
• 17:00 UTC Apollon Limassol vs Omonia 29is Maiou — model 64% / 20% / 16%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.56 · 5.00 · 6.25. Edge: Apollon Limassol

Monday 23 November — 1 match

• 17:00 UTC Krasava Ypsonas vs Anorthosis — model 40% / 29% / 31%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.50 · 3.45 · 3.23. Evenly matched

Friday 27 November — 3 matches

• 17:00 UTC AEK Larnaca vs Apollon Limassol — model 52% / 25% / 23%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.92 · 4.00 · 4.35. Edge: AEK Larnaca
• 17:00 UTC AEL vs Olympiakos — model 40% / 28% / 32%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.50 · 3.57 · 3.13. Evenly matched
• 18:00 UTC Omonia 29is Maiou vs Omonia Aradippou — model 49% / 27% / 24%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.04 · 3.70 · 4.17. Evenly matched

Saturday 28 November — 2 matches

• 16:00 UTC Apoel Nicosia vs Krasava Ypsonas — model 66% / 20% / 14%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.52 · 5.00 · 7.14. One-sided: Apoel Nicosia
• 16:00 UTC Anorthosis vs Karmiotissa — model 52% / 28% / 20%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.92 · 3.57 · 5.00. Edge: Anorthosis

Sunday 29 November — 1 match

• 17:00 UTC Pafos vs Aris — model 52% / 26% / 22%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.92 · 3.85 · 4.55. Edge: Pafos

Last round: the model's hits and misses

6–8 November: the model called the result of 6 of 7 matches. Across all 35 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 63% of results.

• AEK Larnaca 4–1 Karmiotissa — the model said 77% / 16% / 7%, most likely 2-0: result correct.
• Nea Salamis 3–2 Omonia Aradippou — the model said 48% / 28% / 24%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
• AEL 3–1 Krasava Ypsonas — the model said 50% / 26% / 24%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
• Olympiakos 1–0 Apollon Limassol — the model said 32% / 26% / 42%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
• Anorthosis 0–2 Omonia Nicosia — the model said 16% / 25% / 59%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
• Apoel Nicosia 3–1 Aris — the model said 48% / 26% / 26%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
• Pafos 4–2 Omonia 29is Maiou — the model said 57% / 25% / 18%, most likely 1-0: result correct.

Cypriot First Division so far

Top of the table

• 1. AEK Larnaca — 20 pts from 9 (6W 2D 1L, goals 19–8)
• 2. Omonia Nicosia — 18 pts from 9 (5W 3D 1L, goals 17–6)
• 3. AEL — 18 pts from 9 (6W 0D 3L, goals 14–14)
• 4. Apoel Nicosia — 17 pts from 9 (5W 2D 2L, goals 21–11)
• 5. Apollon Limassol — 16 pts from 9 (4W 4D 1L, goals 21–11)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 119 matches left: Omonia Nicosia 54.3%, AEK Larnaca 27.9%, Apollon Limassol 7%.

Leading scorers: F. Pedrozo (Apoel Nicosia) 5 goals, Brandon Thomas (Apollon Limassol) 4 goals, R. Effaghe (Aris) 4 goals.