Atlas vs Monterrey Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Atlas 0-2 Monterrey.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Atlas, 25% draw, 26% Monterrey — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Atlas at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 3 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atlas vs Monterrey
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12Camilo VargasG
- 3Jorge SánchezD
- 28Manuel CapassoD
- 21Rodrigo SchlegelD
- 16Milton ValenzuelaD
- 6Edgar ZaldívarM
- 27Victor RiosM
- 58Arturo GonzálezM
- 10Luís EstevesM
- 11DukF
- 8Ryan MmaeeF
- 2Gustavo FerrareisF
- 23Sergio HernandezM
- 15Paulo RamírezD
- 17Jose LozanoD
- 203Jose MartinF
- 22Antonio SánchezG
- 13Gaddi AguirreD
- 44Juan José PurataM
- 208Jesús GuillénM
- 22Luis CárdenasG
- 4Victor GuzmánD
- 13Carlos SalcedoD
- 19Alonso AcevesD
- 10Luca OrellanoM
- 25Orbelín PinedaM
- 8Óliver TorresM
- 17Jesús CoronaM
- 7Lucas OcamposF
- 9Diego RossiF
- 99Hugo CuypersF
- 2Ricardo ChávezD
- 3Gerardo ArteagaD
- 30Jorge RodríguezM
- 5Fidel AmbrízM
- 11Iker FimbresM
- 31César RamosG
- 21Luis ReyesD
- 18Cesar GarzaM
- 27Roberto de la RosaF
Form going into Atlas vs Monterrey
Atlas
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Santos Laguna26 July 2026
- W3-2away to Leon18 July 2026
Monterrey
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Necaxa26 July 2026
- W3-2Santos Laguna19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Atlas | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 27 |
| 7 | Monterrey | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 25 | +2 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atlas vs Monterrey
- 12 April 2026Atlas 0–0 MonterreyLiga MX
- 5 January 2026Atlas 1–2 MonterreyFriendlies Clubs
- 27 July 2025Monterrey 3–1 AtlasLiga MX
- 30 January 2025Atlas 3–3 MonterreyLiga MX
- 3 November 2024Monterrey 4–0 AtlasLiga MX
Leading scorers: Atlas and Monterrey
Atlas
GoalsAssists
- F. Monzón51
Monterrey
GoalsAssists
- L. Ocampos73
- H. Cuypers61
- D. Rossi53
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Monterrey won 2–0 at Atlas. The model had leaned towards a win for Atlas at 49% and given a win for Monterrey 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: D. Rossi 28' for Monterrey, L. Ocampos (penalty) 90+7' for Monterrey. Sent off: Duk (Atlas) 71', M. Valenzuela (Atlas) 90+5', C. Salcedo (Monterrey) 90+5'. On expected goals it finished 0.43–1.83.