Leon vs CF Pachuca Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Leon 1-0 CF Pachuca.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Leon, 26% draw, 35% CF Pachuca — fair odds of 2.56, 3.85 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Leon at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Leon vs CF Pachuca
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23Oscar GarcíaG
- 7Iván MorenoD
- 14Jhohan RomañaD
- 3Juan GuevaraD
- 5Sebastián VegasD
- 29José RodríguezM
- 16Jordi CortizoM
- 20Rodrigo EcheverríaM
- 6Fernando BeltránM
- 18Edgar GuerraM
- 13Daniel ArcilaF
- 27Diber CambindoF
- 35Luis ValadezM
- 203Jesús LaraD
- 4Bryan ColulaD
- 25Paul BellónD
- 185Christopher MoraD
- 22Sebastián SantosM
- 247Isaac EspinosaM
- 181Irving MartinezG
- 25Carlos MorenoG
- 22Alan MozoD
- 4Eduardo BauermannD
- 2Sergio BarretoD
- 15Francisco VenegasD
- 16Christian RiveraM
- 10Elías MontielM
- 21Nicolás VallejoM
- 7Rodolfo PizarroM
- 11Oussama IdrissiM
- 23Salomón RondónF
- 6Mauricio IsaisD
- 187Gael ÁlvarezF
- 26Alan BautistaM
- 8Alexei DomínguezF
- 9Adrián AlcarazM
- 31Jose EulogioG
- 13Jorge BerlangaD
- 14Carlos SánchezD
- 19Illian HernandezF
Form going into Leon vs CF Pachuca
Leon
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Club Tijuana25 July 2026
- L2-3Atlas18 July 2026
CF Pachuca
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Club Queretaro27 July 2026
- W3-0away to Pumas UNAM18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Leon | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 21 | +2 | 23 |
| 9 | CF Pachuca | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 20 | +9 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Leon vs CF Pachuca
- 14 January 2026CF Pachuca 2–1 LeonLiga MX
- 23 August 2025Leon 1–1 CF PachucaLiga MX
- 6 February 2025CF Pachuca 1–2 LeonLiga MX
- 13 July 2024Leon 0–0 CF PachucaLiga MX
- 8 February 2024CF Pachuca 3–2 LeonLiga MX
Leading scorers: Leon and CF Pachuca
Leon
GoalsAssists
- J. Alvarado61
CF Pachuca
GoalsAssists
- S. Rondón162
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Leon beat CF Pachuca 1–0. The model had made a win for Leon its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: D. Arcila 41' for Leon. Sent off: C. Rivera (CF Pachuca) 62'. On expected goals it finished 0.98–0.75.