2 August 2026, 15:00 UTC

Austria Lustenau vs Ried Bundesliga prediction & result

Planet Pure Stadion, Lustenau
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Austria Lustenau 1-1 Ried.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Austria Lustenau, 24% draw, 23% Ried — fair odds of 1.89, 4.17 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Austria Lustenau at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Austria Lustenau5%Draw92%Ried3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽D. Weixelbraunassist: Danilo Soares
26'
34'
⚽J. Nasraweassist: A. Bajic
Danilo Soares
45+2'
56'
•Jaedin Rhodes
🔁P. Benjaminout: A. Verinac
61'
68'
🔁O. Sorgout: F. Rossdorfer
68'
🔁J. Nasraweout: T. Lund-Jensen
74'
🔁E. E. Aisowierenout: P. Sissoko
🔁L. Afrifaout: L. Jastremski
75'
🔁M. Maakout: E. Chukwu
75'
77'
Fabian Rossdorfer
Seydou Diarra
79'
83'
Tobias Lund Jensen
85'
🔁Y. Maartout: M. Rasner
86'
🔁S. Schwabout: J. Mayer
🔁D. Weixelbraunout: A. Gashi
87'
🔁S. Delayeout: P. Grabher
87'

Match stats — Austria Lustenau vs Ried

41%Possession59%
13Shots24
4On target7
4Corners9
0.82xG2.4

Goals against chances

Austria Lustenau1 from 0.82 xGabout what the chances were worth
Ried1 from 2.40 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Austria Lustenau 4-1-4-1
  • 27D. SchierlG
  • 7F. GmeinerD
  • 31M. MaakD
  • 29N. PertlwieserD
  • 3Danilo SoaresD
  • 8D. KacuriM
  • 11D. WeixelbraunM
  • 20L. AfrifaM
  • 19S. DelayeM
  • 24S. Diarra
  • 14P. BenjaminF
Substitutes
  • 30P. Bohm
  • 17A. GashiF
  • 9L. JastremskiF
  • 18R. VoisineD
  • 10I. OuattaraF
  • 23P. GrabherM
  • 26L. Ibertsberger
  • 39A. VerinacF
  • 15E. ChukwuD
Coach: Markus Mader
Ried 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. LeitnerG
  • 4L. MalicsekD
  • 28S. ChukwudiD
  • 30O. SteurerD
  • 7O. SorgD
  • 22S. SchwabM
  • 6Y. MaartM
  • 12A. BajicM
  • 10J. NasraweM
  • 11J. RhodesM
  • 47E. E. AisowierenF
Substitutes
  • 77F. WimmerG
  • 25D. KirnbauerD
  • 26J. MayerM
  • 18F. RossdorferM
  • 9P. Sissoko
  • 8M. RasnerM
  • 19T. Lund-JensenM
  • 33A. GoigingerD
Coach: Mario Despotovic

Austria Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Austria Lustenau123271530-1511
6Ried124442122-116

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Austria Lustenau vs Ried

  • 21 April 2025Ried 1–1 Austria Lustenau2. Liga
  • 18 October 2024Austria Lustenau 1–1 Ried2. Liga
  • 6 May 2023Austria Lustenau 2–2 RiedBundesliga
  • 29 April 2023Ried 4–4 Austria LustenauBundesliga
  • 23 October 2022Austria Lustenau 0–0 RiedBundesliga

Leading scorers: Austria Lustenau and Ried

Austria Lustenau

GoalsAssists

  • D. Weixelbraun61

Ried

GoalsAssists

  • S. Schwab42
  • P. Pomer41
  • I. Kiese Thelin40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Austria Lustenau and Ried drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Austria Lustenau at 53% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: D. Weixelbraun 26' for Austria Lustenau, J. Nasrawe 34' for Ried. On expected goals it finished 0.82–2.40.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.