WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: WSG Wattens 1-1 Sturm Graz.
Before kick-off the model made it 23% WSG Wattens, 24% draw, 53% Sturm Graz — fair odds of 4.35, 4.17 and 1.89.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Austrian Bundesliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Sturm Graz at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Salko HamzićG
- 5Drew MurrayD
- 23Marco BorasD
- 14David KubattaD
- 32Raphael GschösserD
- 43Nemanja ČelićM
- 18Husein BalićM
- 11Murat SatinM
- 17Michael OlakigbeM
- 8Nikolai FrederiksenF
- 16Lukas HinterseerF
- 36Thomas GoigingerF
- 9Ademola Ola-AdebomiF
- 3David GugganigD
- 15Mazou BambaraM
- 22David FalknerM
- 13Alexander EckmayrG
- 27David JauneggD
- 31Michael NeunerM
- 38Simon WieserM
- 53Daniil KhudyakovG
- 28Jurgen HeilD
- 5Albert VallciD
- 30Paul KollerD
- 18Emran SogloD
- 80Ryan FossoM
- 4Jon Gorenc StankovićM
- 26Belmin BeganovićM
- 19Simon SeidlM
- 43Jacob HödlM
- 17Szymon WłodarczykF
- 20Seedy JattaF
- 27Luís BalboD
- 15Gizo MamageishviliM
- 11Axel KayomboF
- 2Jeyland MitchellD
- 22Ammar HelacG
- 21Petar PetrovićD
- 23Arjan MalićD
- 40Julian HalwachsM
Form going into WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz
WSG Wattens
No earlier matches on record this season.
Sturm Graz
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Heart of Midlothian28 July 2026
- W4-0Heart of Midlothian21 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Austria Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | WSG Wattens | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 13 |
| 5 | Sturm Graz | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 17 | +5 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz
- 14 February 2026WSG Wattens 1–0 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 3 December 2025Sturm Graz 1–3 WSG WattensBundesliga
- 7 December 2024WSG Wattens 0–3 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 31 August 2024Sturm Graz 4–2 WSG WattensBundesliga
- 25 February 2024WSG Wattens 0–2 Sturm GrazBundesliga
Leading scorers: WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz
WSG Wattens
GoalsAssists
- N. Frederiksen50
Sturm Graz
GoalsAssists
- O. Diakité90
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Sturm Graz at 53% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: S. Wlodarczyk 29' for Sturm Graz, M. Olakigbe 42' for WSG Wattens. On expected goals it finished 0.60–2.13.