Austrian Bundesliga predictions & fixtures

Saturday 21 November — 3 matches

16:00 UTC Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg — model 55% / 23% / 22%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.82 · 4.35 · 4.55. Edge: Lask Linz
16:00 UTC WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau — model 50% / 25% / 25%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.00 · 4.00 · 4.00. Evenly matched
18:30 UTC Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna — model 14% / 21% / 65%, most likely 0-2, fair odds 7.14 · 4.76 · 1.54. One-sided: Rapid Vienna

Sunday 22 November — 3 matches

13:30 UTC SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz — model 23% / 27% / 50%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 4.35 · 3.70 · 2.00. One-sided: Sturm Graz
13:30 UTC Wolfsberger AC vs Ried — model 29% / 28% / 43%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.45 · 3.57 · 2.33. Edge: Ried
16:00 UTC Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg — model 19% / 24% / 57%, most likely 0-2, fair odds 5.26 · 4.17 · 1.75. One-sided: Red Bull Salzburg

Friday 27 November — 1 match

18:30 UTC Grazer AK vs SCR Altach — model 37% / 30% / 33%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.70 · 3.33 · 3.03. Evenly matched

Saturday 28 November — 2 matches

16:00 UTC Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC — model 51% / 28% / 21%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.96 · 3.57 · 4.76. Edge: Austria Vienna
18:30 UTC Austria Lustenau vs Rapid Vienna — model 13% / 18% / 69%, most likely 0-2, fair odds 7.69 · 5.56 · 1.45. One-sided: Rapid Vienna

Sunday 29 November — 3 matches

13:30 UTC Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens — model 61% / 23% / 16%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.64 · 4.35 · 6.25. One-sided: Sturm Graz
13:30 UTC Ried vs TSV Hartberg — model 37% / 27% / 36%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.70 · 3.70 · 2.78. Tight game · draw in reach
16:00 UTC Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz — model 53% / 24% / 23%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.89 · 4.17 · 4.35. Edge: Red Bull Salzburg

Last round: the model's hits and misses

6–8 November: the model called the result of 5 of 6 matches, 1 of them to the exact score. Across all 72 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 64% of results.

Rapid Vienna 6–0 Wolfsberger AC — the model said 72% / 19% / 9%, most likely 2-0: result correct.
Austria Lustenau 2–1 Grazer AK — the model said 42% / 25% / 33%, most likely 2-1: exact scoreline.
Ried 2–4 Lask Linz — the model said 30% / 26% / 44%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
TSV Hartberg 3–0 SCR Altach — the model said 51% / 27% / 22%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
WSG Wattens 1–1 Austria Vienna — the model said 40% / 29% / 31%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Sturm Graz 3–4 Red Bull Salzburg — the model said 33% / 28% / 39%, most likely 0-1: result correct.

Austrian Bundesliga so far

Top of the table

1. Rapid Vienna — 33 pts from 12 (11W 0D 1L, goals 39–9)
2. Red Bull Salzburg — 30 pts from 12 (9W 3D 0L, goals 33–9)
3. Lask Linz — 25 pts from 12 (8W 1D 3L, goals 30–15)
4. TSV Hartberg — 20 pts from 12 (6W 2D 4L, goals 23–19)
5. Sturm Graz — 19 pts from 12 (5W 4D 3L, goals 22–17)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 60 matches left: Rapid Vienna 62.3%, Red Bull Salzburg 35.8%, Lask Linz 1.9%.

Leading scorers: O. Diakité (Sturm Graz) 9 goals, H. Tabaković (Red Bull Salzburg) 8 goals, C. Lang (Lask Linz) 8 goals.