Auxerre
vs
Marseille
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Auxerre 1–2 Marseille
The model makes it 23% Auxerre, 23% draw, 54% Marseille — fair odds of 4.35, 4.35 and 1.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Auxerre 1.32, Marseille 2.29.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Marseille are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Auxerre's rating is built from 44 Ligue 1 (France) matches and Marseille's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 705 matches.
Key facts
- Auxerre are 14th on 10 points from 10 games; Marseille are 4th on 18 points from 10 games — Ligue 1.
- Auxerre are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Paris FC.
- Marseille are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Lens.
- Last 6 meetings: Marseille 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 13 March 2026, ended Marseille 1–0 Auxerre.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Auxerre vs Marseille
Has the model earned this number?
Marseille at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Auxerre vs Marseille
Auxerre
Ligue 1
- L0-1Paris FC7 November 2026
- L1-5away to Strasbourg1 November 2026
- D1-1Le Mans25 October 2026
- W3-1away to Le Havre18 October 2026
- L1-4away to Rennes11 October 2026
Marseille
Ligue 1
- W2-1away to Lens8 November 2026
- W2-0Toulouse1 November 2026
- W4-3Le Havre25 October 2026
- W5-2away to Angers18 October 2026
- W2-0away to Estac Troyes11 October 2026
What these results say
- Auxerre conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Auxerre failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Auxerre scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Marseille won every one of these 5 matches.
- Marseille scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Auxerre | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 10 |
| 4 | Marseille | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 14 | +8 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Auxerre vs Marseille
- 13 March 2026Marseille 1–0 AuxerreLigue 1
- 1 November 2025Auxerre 0–1 MarseilleLigue 1
- 22 February 2025Auxerre 3–0 MarseilleLigue 1
- 8 November 2024Marseille 1–3 AuxerreLigue 1
- 30 April 2023Marseille 2–1 AuxerreLigue 1
- 3 September 2022Auxerre 0–2 MarseilleLigue 1
Leading scorers: Auxerre and Marseille
Auxerre
GoalsAssists
- C. Archer60
Marseille
GoalsAssists
- A. Gouiri73
- A. Harit31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Auxerre a 0% chance of the title and Marseille 4.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Marseille the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Auxerre against 2.29 for Marseille. Auxerre's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.3/0.98 for Marseille.
How the model reaches 54% for Marseille to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Marseille to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Auxerre's ratings add 10 points and Marseille's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 54%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage31%−6
- Both sides at this match's level32%+1
- Auxerre's ratings42%+10
- Marseille's ratings54%+12
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Auxerre at home · Marseille away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
AuxerreMarseille
Auxerre are 14th after 10 Ligue 1 matches (between 9th and 18th so far); Marseille are 4th after 10 (between 1st and 17th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Auxerre 10, Marseille 10.
Auxerre score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Marseille have let in 3 there.
Marseille score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Auxerre have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Auxerre
- at Lille5 Dec · Ligue 1win 13%
- vs Toulouse11 Dec · Ligue 1win 32%
- at Lorient2 Jan · Ligue 1win 23%
- vs Estac Troyes16 Jan · Ligue 1win 44%
Marseille
- vs Nice6 Dec · Ligue 1win 56%
- vs Celta Vigo10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 52%
- at Lyon13 Dec · Ligue 1win 37%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.