Ligue 1 (France) predictions & fixtures

Friday 20 November — 1 match

19:45 UTC Estac Troyes vs Le Havre — model 40% / 30% / 30%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.50 · 3.33 · 3.33. Evenly matched

Saturday 21 November — 5 matches

16:15 UTC Nice vs Paris Saint Germain — model 19% / 24% / 57%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 5.26 · 4.17 · 1.75. One-sided: Paris Saint Germain
19:45 UTC Lille vs Lyon — model 48% / 29% / 23%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.08 · 3.45 · 4.35. Edge: Lille
19:45 UTC Monaco vs Auxerre — model 62% / 21% / 17%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.61 · 4.76 · 5.88. One-sided: Monaco
19:45 UTC Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29 — model 43% / 24% / 33%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.33 · 4.17 · 3.03. Evenly matched
19:45 UTC Lens vs Toulouse — model 50% / 24% / 26%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.00 · 4.17 · 3.85. Evenly matched

Sunday 22 November — 3 matches

14:00 UTC Paris FC vs Angers — model 71% / 19% / 10%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.41 · 5.26 · 10.00. One-sided: Paris FC
16:15 UTC Lorient vs Rennes — model 41% / 26% / 33%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.44 · 3.85 · 3.03. Evenly matched
19:45 UTC Marseille vs Le Mans — model 67% / 19% / 14%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.49 · 5.26 · 7.14. One-sided: Marseille

Friday 27 November — 1 match

19:45 UTC Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris FC — model 31% / 26% / 43%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.23 · 3.85 · 2.33. Edge: Paris FC

Saturday 28 November — 5 matches

16:15 UTC Angers vs Lens — model 21% / 24% / 55%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 4.76 · 4.17 · 1.82. One-sided: Lens
19:45 UTC Nice vs Estac Troyes — model 52% / 27% / 21%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.92 · 3.70 · 4.76. Edge: Nice
19:45 UTC Paris Saint Germain vs Lorient — model 65% / 22% / 13%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.54 · 4.55 · 7.69. One-sided: Paris Saint Germain
19:45 UTC Le Havre vs Strasbourg — model 30% / 24% / 46%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.33 · 4.17 · 2.17. Edge: Strasbourg
19:45 UTC Le Mans vs Lille — model 20% / 27% / 53%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 5.00 · 3.70 · 1.89. One-sided: Lille

Sunday 29 November — 3 matches

14:00 UTC Auxerre vs Marseille — model 23% / 23% / 54%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 4.35 · 4.35 · 1.85. One-sided: Marseille
16:15 UTC Toulouse vs Rennes — model 44% / 23% / 33%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.27 · 4.35 · 3.03. Evenly matched
19:45 UTC Lyon vs Monaco — model 39% / 28% / 33%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.56 · 3.57 · 3.03. Evenly matched

Last round: the model's hits and misses

6–8 November: the model called the result of 6 of 9 matches, 1 of them to the exact score. Across all 90 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 51% of results.

Toulouse 3–1 Strasbourg — the model said 41% / 25% / 34%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
Auxerre 0–1 Paris FC — the model said 22% / 24% / 54%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
Paris Saint Germain 1–0 Estac Troyes — the model said 81% / 13% / 6%, most likely 3-0: result correct.
Rennes 1–2 Lille — the model said 31% / 26% / 43%, most likely 1-2: exact scoreline.
Angers 0–2 Nice — the model said 30% / 28% / 42%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
Stade Brestois 29 2–0 Lyon — the model said 34% / 27% / 39%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
Le Havre 0–2 Lorient — the model said 32% / 30% / 38%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
Le Mans 1–1 Monaco — the model said 25% / 24% / 51%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
Lens 1–2 Marseille — the model said 43% / 24% / 33%, most likely 2-1: result missed.

Ligue 1 (France) so far

Top of the table

1. Paris Saint Germain — 23 pts from 10 (7W 2D 1L, goals 22–10)
2. Lille — 21 pts from 10 (6W 3D 1L, goals 14–7)
3. Paris FC — 20 pts from 10 (6W 2D 2L, goals 17–10)
4. Marseille — 18 pts from 10 (6W 0D 4L, goals 22–14)
5. Lyon — 17 pts from 10 (5W 2D 3L, goals 15–9)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 216 matches left: Paris Saint Germain 72.9%, Lille 10.4%, Paris FC 8.9%.

Leading scorers: L. Sinayoko (Paris FC) 9 goals, A. Gouiri (Marseille) 7 goals, E. Lepaul (Rennes) 7 goals.