USM Alger
vs
ASO Chlef
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: USM Alger 2–0 ASO Chlef
The model makes it 59% USM Alger, 24% draw, 17% ASO Chlef — fair odds of 1.69, 4.17 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: USM Alger 2.06, ASO Chlef 0.88.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to USM Alger: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. USM Alger's rating is built from 37 Ligue 1 (Algeria) matches and ASO Chlef's from 39, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- USM Alger are 6th on 14 points from 7 games; ASO Chlef are 15th on 5 points from 9 games — Ligue 1.
- USM Alger are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to CS Constantine.
- ASO Chlef have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to US Biskra.
- Last 6 meetings: USM Alger 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 5 April 2026, ended ASO Chlef 2–1 USM Alger.
More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: USM Alger vs ASO Chlef
Has the model earned this number?
USM Alger at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into USM Alger vs ASO Chlef
USM Alger
Ligue 1
- W2-0away to CS Constantine31 October 2026
- D2-2CR Belouizdad24 October 2026
- W1-0JS Saoura13 October 2026
- L0-1away to MB Rouisset8 October 2026
- W3-2away to Olympique Akbou19 September 2026
ASO Chlef
Ligue 1
- D0-0away to US Biskra8 November 2026
- L1-2ES Setif30 October 2026
- D1-1MB Rouisset24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Témouchent18 October 2026
- D1-1MC Alger13 October 2026
What these results say
- USM Alger scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- ASO Chlef did not win any of these 5 matches.
- ASO Chlef scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- ASO Chlef conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Algeria Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | USM Alger | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 14 |
| 15 | ASO Chlef | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
USM Alger
Chance to finish in the top two · 17% today
ASO Chlef
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 59% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: USM Alger vs ASO Chlef
- 5 April 2026ASO Chlef 2–1 USM AlgerLigue 1
- 2 November 2025USM Alger 1–0 ASO ChlefLigue 1
- 30 April 2025USM Alger 1–2 ASO ChlefLigue 1
- 26 October 2024ASO Chlef 0–0 USM AlgerLigue 1
- 25 May 2024USM Alger 2–1 ASO ChlefLigue 1
- 5 January 2024ASO Chlef 0–1 USM AlgerLigue 1
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives USM Alger a 5.9% chance of the title and ASO Chlef 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives USM Alger the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.06 expected goals for USM Alger against 0.88 for ASO Chlef. USM Alger's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/1.98 for ASO Chlef.
How the model reaches 59% for USM Alger to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for USM Alger to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, USM Alger's ratings add 8 points and ASO Chlef's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 59%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- USM Alger's ratings52%+8
- ASO Chlef's ratings59%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
USM Alger at home · ASO Chlef away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: USM Alger 7, ASO Chlef 9.
USM Alger score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); ASO Chlef have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
USM Alger
No further matches on our board yet.
ASO Chlef
- at JS El Biar30 Nov · Ligue 1win 19%
- vs JS Saoura26 Dec · Ligue 1win 34%
- at Ben Aknoun31 Dec · Ligue 1win 22%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.