Borussia Dortmund
vs
Bayer Leverkusen
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Borussia Dortmund 2–1 Bayer Leverkusen
The model makes it 53% Borussia Dortmund, 24% draw, 23% Bayer Leverkusen — fair odds of 1.89, 4.17 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Borussia Dortmund 2.09, Bayer Leverkusen 1.19.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to Borussia Dortmund: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Borussia Dortmund's rating is built from 43 Bundesliga matches and Bayer Leverkusen's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 697 matches.
Key facts
- Borussia Dortmund are 2nd on 21 points from 9 games; Bayer Leverkusen are 5th on 16 points from 9 games — Bundesliga.
- Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to SV Elversberg.
- Bayer Leverkusen have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to 1. FC Köln.
- Last 6 meetings: Bayer Leverkusen 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 11 April 2026, ended Borussia Dortmund 0–1 Bayer Leverkusen.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen
Has the model earned this number?
Borussia Dortmund at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen
Borussia Dortmund
Bundesliga
- W2-1SV Elversberg7 November 2026
- D2-2away to Bayern München31 October 2026
- W1-0Eintracht Frankfurt24 October 2026
- D0-0away to Union Berlin17 October 2026
- D2-2Werder Bremen9 October 2026
Bayer Leverkusen
Bundesliga
- W2-1away to 1. FC Köln8 November 2026
- L2-4VfB Stuttgart31 October 2026
- L0-3away to 1899 Hoffenheim25 October 2026
- W2-1SC Freiburg18 October 2026
- W4-3away to FSV Mainz 0510 October 2026
What these results say
- Borussia Dortmund went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Borussia Dortmund scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bayer Leverkusen conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Bayer Leverkusen had three goals or more.
- Bayer Leverkusen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 21 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen
- 11 April 2026Borussia Dortmund 0–1 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 2 December 2025Borussia Dortmund 0–1 Bayer LeverkusenDFB Pokal
- 29 November 2025Bayer Leverkusen 1–2 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- 11 May 2025Bayer Leverkusen 2–4 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- 10 January 2025Borussia Dortmund 2–3 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 21 April 2024Borussia Dortmund 1–1 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
Leading scorers: Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen
Borussia Dortmund
GoalsAssists
- F. Nmecha40
Bayer Leverkusen
GoalsAssists
- P. Schick82
- I. Maza33
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Borussia Dortmund a 17.4% chance of the title and Bayer Leverkusen 1.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Borussia Dortmund the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund against 1.19 for Bayer Leverkusen. Borussia Dortmund's attack/defence rating is 1.21/0.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.33/0.94 for Bayer Leverkusen.
How the model reaches 53% for Borussia Dortmund to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for Borussia Dortmund to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Borussia Dortmund's ratings add 4 points and Bayer Leverkusen's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage43%+5
- Both sides at this match's level42%−1
- Borussia Dortmund's ratings46%+4
- Bayer Leverkusen's ratings53%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Borussia Dortmund at home · Bayer Leverkusen away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Borussia DortmundBayer Leverkusen
Borussia Dortmund are 2nd after 9 Bundesliga matches (between 1st and 3rd so far); Bayer Leverkusen are 5th after 9 (between 3rd and 17th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Borussia Dortmund 9, Bayer Leverkusen 9.
Borussia Dortmund score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Bayer Leverkusen have let in 3 there.
Bayer Leverkusen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Borussia Dortmund have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Borussia Dortmund
- at FC Schalke 046 Dec · Bundesligawin 55%
- vs Inter9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 41%
- vs FC Augsburg12 Dec · Bundesligawin 66%
Bayer Leverkusen
- vs Borussia Mönchengladbach5 Dec · Bundesligawin 67%
- vs Beşiktaş10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 51%
- at Werder Bremen13 Dec · Bundesligawin 45%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.