Red Bull Salzburg
vs
Lask Linz
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Red Bull Salzburg 2–1 Lask Linz
The model makes it 53% Red Bull Salzburg, 24% draw, 23% Lask Linz — fair odds of 1.89, 4.17 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Red Bull Salzburg 2.15, Lask Linz 1.26.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,153 settled matches.
Edge to Red Bull Salzburg: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Red Bull Salzburg's rating is built from 44 Austrian Bundesliga matches and Lask Linz's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 462 matches.
Key facts
- Red Bull Salzburg are 2nd on 30 points from 12 games; Lask Linz are 3rd on 25 points from 12 games — Bundesliga.
- Red Bull Salzburg are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 4-3 win away to Sturm Graz.
- Lask Linz have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-2 win away to Ried.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 25 October 2026, ended Lask Linz 1–3 Red Bull Salzburg.
More Austrian Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz
Has the model earned this number?
Red Bull Salzburg at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz
Red Bull Salzburg
Bundesliga
- W4-3away to Sturm Graz8 November 2026
- W5-1Austria Lustenau1 November 2026
- W3-1away to Lask Linz25 October 2026
- W3-0SCR Altach18 October 2026
- D0-0away to Grazer AK10 October 2026
Lask Linz
Bundesliga
- W4-2away to Ried7 November 2026
- W2-1WSG Wattens31 October 2026
- L1-3Red Bull Salzburg25 October 2026
- W4-0away to Austria Lustenau17 October 2026
- L0-2Rapid Vienna11 October 2026
What these results say
- Red Bull Salzburg went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Red Bull Salzburg won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Red Bull Salzburg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lask Linz scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lask Linz conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Lask Linz had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Austria Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 12 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 33 | 9 | +24 | 30 |
| 3 | Lask Linz | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 15 | +15 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg
Lask Linz and Red Bull Salzburg have met 7 times in the records we hold, Lask Linz has won 4 of them to Red Bull Salzburg's 3.
The record
Red Bull Salzburg won the last one 3–1 on 25 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lask Linz | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 16 |
| Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 11 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 27 goals, an average of 3.86 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Oct 2026
BundesligaLask Linz 1–3 Red Bull Salzburg - 10 May 2026
BundesligaLask Linz 2–1 Red Bull Salzburg - 10 Apr 2026
BundesligaRed Bull Salzburg 2–3 Lask Linz - 22 Feb 2026
BundesligaLask Linz 1–5 Red Bull Salzburg - 23 Aug 2025
BundesligaRed Bull Salzburg 3–0 Lask Linz - 2 Feb 2025
CupLask Linz 2–1 Red Bull Salzburg - 23 Nov 2024
BundesligaRed Bull Salzburg 1–2 Lask Linz
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Red Bull Salzburg's attack rates 5% above Lask Linz's, and Red Bull Salzburg concede 22% fewer than Lask Linz. That gives Red Bull Salzburg the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Lask Linz | 0.93 | 1.32 |
| Red Bull Salzburg | 0.98 | 1.03 |
Leading scorers: Red Bull Salzburg and Lask Linz
Red Bull Salzburg
GoalsAssists
- H. Tabaković80
- K. Konaté40
- Y. Vertessen33
Lask Linz
GoalsAssists
- C. Lang80
- S. Adeniran62
- M. Usor33
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Red Bull Salzburg a 35.8% chance of the title and Lask Linz 1.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Red Bull Salzburg the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg against 1.26 for Lask Linz. Red Bull Salzburg's attack/defence rating is 0.98/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/1.32 for Lask Linz.
How the model reaches 53% for Red Bull Salzburg to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Red Bull Salzburg to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Red Bull Salzburg's ratings add 4 points and Lask Linz's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Both sides at this match's level44%+1
- Red Bull Salzburg's ratings48%+4
- Lask Linz's ratings53%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Red Bull Salzburg at home · Lask Linz away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Red Bull SalzburgLask Linz
Red Bull Salzburg are 2nd after 12 Bundesliga matches (between 1st and 4th so far); Lask Linz are 3rd after 12 (between 1st and 3rd). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Red Bull Salzburg 12, Lask Linz 12.
Red Bull Salzburg score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Lask Linz have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Red Bull Salzburg
- at SCR Altach4 Dec · Bundesligawin 60%
- vs Sparta Praha10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 35%
- vs Wolfsberger AC13 Dec · Bundesligawin 78%
Lask Linz
- at Rapid Vienna5 Dec · Bundesligawin 23%
- vs Fenerbahçe9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 25%
- vs Austria Vienna13 Dec · Bundesligawin 63%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.