Bundesliga predictions & fixtures

Friday 20 November — 1 match

19:30 UTC Bayern München vs 1. FC Köln — model 80% / 13% / 7%, most likely 3-0, fair odds 1.25 · 7.69 · 14.29. One-sided: Bayern München

Saturday 21 November — 6 matches

14:30 UTC Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund — model 16% / 22% / 62%, most likely 0-2, fair odds 6.25 · 4.55 · 1.61. One-sided: Borussia Dortmund
14:30 UTC Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07 — model 59% / 23% / 18%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.69 · 4.35 · 5.56. One-sided: Bayer Leverkusen
14:30 UTC Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim — model 46% / 22% / 32%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.17 · 4.55 · 3.13. Evenly matched
14:30 UTC Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig — model 18% / 21% / 61%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 5.56 · 4.76 · 1.64. One-sided: RB Leipzig
14:30 UTC SV Elversberg vs SC Freiburg — model 33% / 24% / 43%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.03 · 4.17 · 2.33. Edge: SC Freiburg
17:30 UTC FC Schalke 04 vs VfB Stuttgart — model 26% / 29% / 45%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.85 · 3.45 · 2.22. Edge: VfB Stuttgart

Sunday 22 November — 2 matches

14:30 UTC FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 — model 45% / 23% / 32%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.22 · 4.35 · 3.13. Evenly matched
16:30 UTC Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV — model 49% / 26% / 25%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.04 · 3.85 · 4.00. Edge: Werder Bremen

Friday 27 November — 1 match

19:30 UTC Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach — model 52% / 24% / 24%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.92 · 4.17 · 4.17. Edge: Werder Bremen

Saturday 28 November — 5 matches

14:30 UTC FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin — model 52% / 24% / 24%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.92 · 4.17 · 4.17. Edge: FSV Mainz 05
14:30 UTC Hamburger SV vs Bayern München — model 12% / 17% / 71%, most likely 0-2, fair odds 8.33 · 5.88 · 1.41. One-sided: Bayern München
14:30 UTC SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 — model 38% / 35% / 27%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.63 · 2.86 · 3.70. Evenly matched
14:30 UTC 1. FC Köln vs SV Elversberg — model 32% / 25% / 43%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.13 · 4.00 · 2.33. Edge: SV Elversberg
17:30 UTC VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt — model 51% / 22% / 27%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.96 · 4.55 · 3.70. Evenly matched

Sunday 29 November — 3 matches

14:30 UTC SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig — model 38% / 24% / 38%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.63 · 4.17 · 2.63. Tight game · draw in reach
16:30 UTC 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg — model 45% / 23% / 32%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.22 · 4.35 · 3.13. Evenly matched
18:30 UTC Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen — model 53% / 24% / 23%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.89 · 4.17 · 4.35. Edge: Borussia Dortmund

Last round: the model's hits and misses

6–8 November: the model called the result of 8 of 9 matches, 2 of them to the exact score. Across all 81 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 56% of results.

Hamburger SV 3–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach — the model said 39% / 27% / 34%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
Borussia Dortmund 2–1 SV Elversberg — the model said 66% / 20% / 14%, most likely 2-0: result correct.
RB Leipzig 5–2 FC Augsburg — the model said 62% / 20% / 18%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
FSV Mainz 05 1–2 Bayern München — the model said 15% / 17% / 68%, most likely 1-3: result correct.
SC Paderborn 07 2–2 Eintracht Frankfurt — the model said 33% / 29% / 38%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
VfB Stuttgart 1–0 Werder Bremen — the model said 51% / 23% / 26%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
1. FC Köln 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen — the model said 25% / 23% / 52%, most likely 1-2: exact scoreline.
SC Freiburg 2–0 Union Berlin — the model said 64% / 21% / 15%, most likely 2-0: exact scoreline.
1899 Hoffenheim 2–1 FC Schalke 04 — the model said 47% / 28% / 25%, most likely 1-0: result correct.

Bundesliga so far

Top of the table

1. Bayern München — 21 pts from 9 (6W 3D 0L, goals 29–9)
2. Borussia Dortmund — 21 pts from 9 (6W 3D 0L, goals 16–7)
3. SC Freiburg — 19 pts from 9 (6W 1D 2L, goals 20–10)
4. RB Leipzig — 18 pts from 9 (6W 0D 3L, goals 27–13)
5. Bayer Leverkusen — 16 pts from 9 (5W 1D 3L, goals 20–17)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 225 matches left: Bayern München 73.4%, Borussia Dortmund 17.4%, RB Leipzig 5.3%.

Leading scorers: N. Füllkrug (Werder Bremen) 9 goals, P. Schick (Bayer Leverkusen) 8 goals, M. Olise (Bayern München) 6 goals.