DC United vs Nashville SC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: DC United 2-2 Nashville SC.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% DC United, 25% draw, 27% Nashville SC — fair odds of 2.08, 4.00 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
DC United at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — DC United vs Nashville SC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Sean JohnsonG
- 5Silvan HeftiD
- 3Lucas BartlettD
- 15Kye RowlesD
- 6Keisuke KurokawaD
- 25Jackson HopkinsM
- 21Andre DozzellM
- 23Brandon ServaniaM
- 7João PeglowM
- 9Tai BariboF
- 11Louis MunteanuF
- 4Matti PeltolaD
- 22Nathan OrdazF
- 8Jared StroudM
- 26Alex BonoG
- 27Nikola MarkovicD
- 13Sean NealisD
- 77Hosei KijimaM
- 32Oscar AvilezF
- 40Kamil CastilloM
- 99Brian SchwakeG
- 31Andy NajarD
- 4Jeisson PalaciosD
- 3Maxwell WoledziD
- 2Daniel LovitzD
- 20Edvard TagsethM
- 16Matthew CorcoranM
- 14Shakur MohammedM
- 10Hany MukhtarM
- 37Ahmed QasemM
- 9Sam SurridgeF
- 41Warren MadrigalF
- 11Elias SaadF
- 6Bryan AcostaM
- 22Josh BauerD
- 27Reed Baker-WhitingD
- 13Xavier ValdezG
- 5Jack MaherD
- 23Jordan KnightD
- 12Charles-Emile BrunetM
Form going into DC United vs Nashville SC
DC United
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Toronto FC25 July 2026
- D1-1away to Houston Dynamo23 July 2026
Nashville SC
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Orlando City SC25 July 2026
- W1-0CF Montreal23 July 2026
- W1-0Atlanta United FC18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | DC United | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 33 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 34 | 23 | 8 | 3 | 71 | 25 | +46 | 77 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: DC United vs Nashville SC
- 10 May 2026Nashville SC 2–2 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- 10 July 2025Nashville SC 5–2 DC UnitedUS Open Cup
- 28 June 2025DC United 0–1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- 18 May 2025Nashville SC 0–0 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- 12 February 2025Nashville SC 4–1 DC UnitedFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: DC United and Nashville SC
DC United
GoalsAssists
- T. Baribo161
Nashville SC
GoalsAssists
- S. Surridge211
- H. Mukhtar167
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
DC United and Nashville SC drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for DC United at 48% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: S. Surridge (penalty) 32' for Nashville SC, S. Mohammed 40' for Nashville SC, S. Hefti 56' for DC United, T. Baribo 77' for DC United. On expected goals it finished 2.03–1.52.