20 September 2026, 12:00 UTC

FC Vaduz vs FC Thun Super League prediction & result

Rheinpark Stadion, Vaduz
Full time1 – 2

Final score: FC Vaduz 1-2 FC Thun.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% FC Vaduz, 28% draw, 27% FC Thun — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Vaduz at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Vaduz0%Draw5%FC Thun95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

31'
Nassim Zoukit
33'
⚽Furkan Dursun
39'
Jan Bamert
49'
⚽Nils·Reichmuthassist: Furkan Dursun
67'
Mattias Käit
67'
🔁Mattias Käitout: Noah Christoffersson
67'
🔁Tom Strannegardout: Olivier Mambwa
67'
🔁Furkan Dursunout: Nico Maier
⚽Marcel Monsbergerassist: Lutfi Dalipi
73'
🔁Juan Cabreraout: Dejan Djokic
74'
🔁Niklas Langout: mischa beeli
74'
Milos Cocic
77'
78'
🔁Nils·Reichmuthout: Fabio Fehr
🔁Dominik Schwizerout: Malik Sawadogo
80'
86'
🔁Nassim Zoukitout: Louis Immanuel Passavant
88'
Nico Maier
🔁Nicolas Haslerout: Mattia walker
88'

Match stats — FC Vaduz vs FC Thun

66%Possession34%
18Shots15
3On target6
3Corners7

Line-ups

FC Vaduz 4-1-2-1-2
  • 25L. SchaffranG
  • 4N. HaslerD
  • 27N. LangD
  • 6D. SimaniD
  • 7D. SchwizerD
  • 20L. MackM
  • 17J. StarkM
  • 10Juan CabreraM
  • 28M. ĆoćićM
  • 9M. MonsbergerF
  • 11L. DalipiF
Substitutes
  • 37L. CelentanoD
  • 1B. BüchelG
  • 14M. BeeliD
  • 19D. DjokicF
  • 38N. FollmiG
  • 23M. HammerichM
  • 18D. KasperF
  • 29M. SawadogoD
  • 30Mattia WalkerM
Coach: M. Schneider
FC Thun 4-2-2-2
  • 1N. SteffenG
  • 37L. DählerD
  • 19J. BamertD
  • 13N. ZoukitD
  • 18T. StrannegårdD
  • 16J. RothM
  • 14M. KäitM
  • 70N. ReichmuthM
  • 8F. SaizM
  • 96B. LabeauF
  • 9F. DursunF
Substitutes
  • 26N. ChristofferssonF
  • 21D. DerbaciM
  • 47F. FehrD
  • 15P. KristalM
  • 80S. LengenF
  • 30N. MaierM
  • 2O. MambwaD
  • 54L. PassavantD
  • 25T. SpycherG
Coach: Gian Luca Privitelli

Form going into FC Vaduz vs FC Thun

FC Vaduz

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to FC Zurich13 September 2026
  • W3-1Lausanne5 September 2026
  • L1-2away to FC Luzern2 September 2026
  • W5-2Grasshoppers30 August 2026
  • L2-4away to BSC Young Boys23 August 2026

FC Thun

All competitions we cover

  • L2-4Servette FC16 September 2026
  • L0-1Grasshoppers12 September 2026
  • L2-3away to FC Sion6 September 2026
  • D0-0Lausanne2 September 2026
  • W4-3away to FC St. Gallen30 August 2026

What these results say

  • FC Vaduz scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • FC Vaduz conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for FC Vaduz had three goals or more.
  • FC Thun failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FC Thun conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Switzerland Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11FC Vaduz133192429-510
8FC Thun134272737-1014

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Vaduz vs FC Thun

  • 11 May 2025FC Vaduz 3–3 FC ThunChallenge League
  • 24 January 2025FC Thun 3–1 FC VaduzChallenge League
  • 19 October 2024FC Vaduz 2–0 FC ThunChallenge League
  • 28 July 2024FC Thun 2–0 FC VaduzChallenge League
  • 17 May 2024FC Thun 6–3 FC VaduzChallenge League

Leading scorers: FC Vaduz and FC Thun

FC Vaduz

GoalsAssists

  • M. Monsberger61
  • L. Dalipi59
  • Juan Cabrera50

FC Thun

GoalsAssists

  • B. Labeau61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Thun won 2–1 at FC Vaduz. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Vaduz at 45% and given a win for FC Thun 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Furkan Dursun 33' for FC Thun, Nils·Reichmuth 49' for FC Thun, Marcel Monsberger 73' for FC Vaduz.

How the call on FC Vaduz v FC Thun has moved

First published on 6 Sep at 47% / 27% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 45% / 28% / 27%: the biggest move is FC Vaduz's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. FC Vaduz win45%▼ −2
  2. Draw28%▲ +1
  3. FC Thun win27%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.