Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Piast Gliwice 1-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Piast Gliwice, 30% draw, 30% Pogon Szczecin — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Piast Gliwice at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin
Line-ups
- 75D. GrilG
- 99E. TwumasiD
- 5Juande RivasD
- 4J. CzerwińskiD
- 36J. LewickiD
- 90Ivan LimaM
- 27J. ŁabojkoM
- 17Q. BoisgardM
- 80Hugo VallejoM
- 19S. Ntamack NdimbaF
- 11Leandro SancaF
- 98J. LokiloF
- 47J. GrelichG
- 10A. KatsantonisF
- 91Maciej KucharskiF
- 31O. LeśniakM
- 18O. MaziarzM
- 12Marcel Mendes-DudzińskiG
- 77S. MuchaM
- 7Jorge FélixF
- 77V. CojocaruG
- 4A. RiccioD
- 13D. KeramitsisD
- 29L. WillenD
- 23B. MendyD
- 21D. ChurlinovM
- 16P. DziczekM
- 3K. AcostaM
- 35M. WojciechowskiM
- 18P. MukairuF
- 22Jordi SánchezF
- 15Hussein AliD
- 6J. BiegańskiM
- 30J. CzaplinskiM
- 98M. DabrowskiG
- 11K. GrosickiM
- 7M. JuwaraF
- 47N. LawaM
- 17J. NsameF
- 41A. SzalaiD
Form going into Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin
Piast Gliwice
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Radomiak Radom14 September 2026
- W3-0GKS Katowice4 September 2026
- W2-0away to Motor Lublin29 August 2026
- D1-1Legia Warszawa22 August 2026
- L3-4Wieczysta Kraków15 August 2026
Pogon Szczecin
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Wieczysta Kraków13 September 2026
- D1-1Wisla Plock7 September 2026
- D0-0away to Zaglebie Lubin29 August 2026
- D2-2Wisla Krakow23 August 2026
- W3-1Motor Lublin8 August 2026
What these results say
- Piast Gliwice scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Pogon Szczecin went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Pogon Szczecin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Piast Gliwice | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 22 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin
- 13 April 2026Piast Gliwice 0–2 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 3 October 2025Pogon Szczecin 2–1 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 13 April 2025Piast Gliwice 2–1 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 26 February 2025Pogon Szczecin 2–0 Piast GliwiceCup
- 6 October 2024Pogon Szczecin 1–0 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin
Piast Gliwice
GoalsAssists
- Hugo Vallejo51
Pogon Szczecin
GoalsAssists
- Jordi Sánchez91
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Pogon Szczecin won 2–1 at Piast Gliwice. The model had leaned towards a win for Piast Gliwice at 40% and given a win for Pogon Szczecin 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Jordi Sánchez 26' for Pogon Szczecin, Samuel Ntamack Ndimba 31' for Piast Gliwice, Darko Churlinov 57' for Pogon Szczecin.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.