IF Elfsborg
vs
Gais
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: IF Elfsborg 1–0 Gais
The model makes it 39% IF Elfsborg, 29% draw, 32% Gais — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: IF Elfsborg 1.38, Gais 1.20.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. IF Elfsborg's rating is built from 58 Allsvenskan matches and Gais's from 58, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 708 matches.
Key facts
- IF Elfsborg are 5th on 46 points from 28 games; Gais are 9th on 40 points from 28 games — Allsvenskan.
- IF Elfsborg have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Hammarby FF.
- Gais are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Degerfors IF.
- Last 6 meetings: Gais 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 12 July 2026, ended Gais 1–0 IF Elfsborg.
More Allsvenskan predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: IF Elfsborg vs Gais
Has the model earned this number?
IF Elfsborg at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into IF Elfsborg vs Gais
IF Elfsborg
Allsvenskan
- L1-4away to Hammarby FF6 November 2026
- W2-1Orgryte IS1 November 2026
- D2-2away to AIK Stockholm27 October 2026
- D0-0Malmo FF23 October 2026
- D2-2away to Sirius18 October 2026
Gais
Allsvenskan
- W2-1away to Degerfors IF7 November 2026
- W2-1AIK Stockholm2 November 2026
- W1-0away to Kalmar FF29 October 2026
- D1-1IFK Goteborg25 October 2026
- L2-4away to Orgryte IS18 October 2026
What these results say
- IF Elfsborg failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- IF Elfsborg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- IF Elfsborg conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gais scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gais conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Gais.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | IF Elfsborg | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 42 | 31 | +11 | 46 |
| 9 | Gais | 28 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 36 | 28 | +8 | 40 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: IF Elfsborg vs Gais
- 12 July 2026Gais 1–0 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
- 14 February 2026Gais 2–0 IF ElfsborgFriendlies Clubs
- 20 September 2025Gais 2–0 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
- 5 May 2025IF Elfsborg 2–0 GaisAllsvenskan
- 20 March 2025IF Elfsborg 1–2 GaisFriendlies Clubs
- 11 August 2024IF Elfsborg 2–1 GaisAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: IF Elfsborg and Gais
IF Elfsborg
GoalsAssists
- L. Ãstman112
Gais
No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 36 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives IF Elfsborg the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for IF Elfsborg against 1.20 for Gais. IF Elfsborg's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.24 for Gais.
How the model reaches 39% for IF Elfsborg to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for IF Elfsborg to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, IF Elfsborg's ratings change nothing and Gais's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Both sides at this match's level40%−1
- IF Elfsborg's ratings40%±0
- Gais's ratings39%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
IF Elfsborg at home · Gais away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: IF Elfsborg 28, Gais 28.
IF Elfsborg score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Gais have let in 6 there.
Gais score most often in the 46–60 minute window (11 goals); IF Elfsborg have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.