IFK Goteborg
vs
Sirius
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: IFK Goteborg 1–2 Sirius
The model makes it 33% IFK Goteborg, 26% draw, 41% Sirius — fair odds of 3.03, 3.85 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: IFK Goteborg 1.47, Sirius 1.70.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Edge to Sirius: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. IFK Goteborg's rating is built from 58 Allsvenskan matches and Sirius's from 58, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 708 matches.
Key facts
- IFK Goteborg are 10th on 39 points from 28 games; Sirius are 2nd on 58 points from 28 games — Allsvenskan.
- IFK Goteborg have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Malmo FF.
- Sirius have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Kalmar FF.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 26 July 2026, ended Sirius 4–1 IFK Goteborg.
More Allsvenskan predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: IFK Goteborg vs Sirius
Has the model earned this number?
Sirius at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into IFK Goteborg vs Sirius
IFK Goteborg
Allsvenskan
- D0-0Malmo FF8 November 2026
- L0-1away to BK Hacken1 November 2026
- D1-1Djurgardens IF28 October 2026
- D1-1away to Gais25 October 2026
- D2-2away to AIK Stockholm17 October 2026
Sirius
Allsvenskan
- L0-1away to Kalmar FF8 November 2026
- W2-0Halmstad3 November 2026
- L0-2away to Hammarby FF29 October 2026
- L1-2AIK Stockholm24 October 2026
- D2-2IF Elfsborg18 October 2026
What these results say
- IFK Goteborg did not win any of these 5 matches.
- IFK Goteborg conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for IFK Goteborg had two goals or fewer.
- Sirius failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sirius conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | IFK Goteborg | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 36 | 46 | -10 | 39 |
| 2 | Sirius | 28 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 58 | 35 | +23 | 58 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: IFK Goteborg vs Sirius
- 26 July 2026Sirius 4–1 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
- 15 March 2026Sirius 1–0 IFK GoteborgSvenska Cupen
- 20 July 2025Sirius 0–1 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
- 6 July 2025IFK Goteborg 3–1 SiriusAllsvenskan
- 17 August 2024IFK Goteborg 1–1 SiriusAllsvenskan
- 16 May 2024Sirius 2–2 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: IFK Goteborg and Sirius
IFK Goteborg
GoalsAssists
- S. Larsson83
Sirius
GoalsAssists
- I. Bjerkebo157
- R. Ure152
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives IFK Goteborg a 0% chance of the title and Sirius 21.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sirius the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for IFK Goteborg against 1.70 for Sirius. IFK Goteborg's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.52 for Sirius.
How the model reaches 41% for Sirius to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Sirius to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, IFK Goteborg's ratings add 3 points and Sirius's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage32%−5
- Both sides at this match's level33%+1
- IFK Goteborg's ratings36%+3
- Sirius's ratings41%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
IFK Goteborg at home · Sirius away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: IFK Goteborg 28, Sirius 28.
IFK Goteborg score most often in the 61–75 minute window (8 goals); Sirius have let in 2 there.
Sirius score most often in the 31–45 minute window (13 goals); IFK Goteborg have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.