Allsvenskan predictions & fixtures

Saturday 21 November — 4 matches

12:00 UTC Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC — model 33% / 29% / 38%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.03 · 3.45 · 2.63. Edge: Varbergs BoIS FC
14:00 UTC AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF — model 59% / 22% / 19%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.69 · 4.55 · 5.26. Edge: AIK Stockholm
14:00 UTC Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF — model 30% / 29% / 41%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.33 · 3.45 · 2.44. Edge: Malmo FF
16:30 UTC Gais vs Vasteras SK FK — model 41% / 29% / 30%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.44 · 3.45 · 3.33. Evenly matched

Sunday 22 November — 3 matches

13:00 UTC BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg — model 45% / 26% / 29%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.22 · 3.85 · 3.45. Evenly matched
13:00 UTC Sirius vs Djurgardens IF — model 34% / 26% / 40%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.94 · 3.85 · 2.50. Edge: Djurgardens IF
15:30 UTC IF Brommapojkarna vs Halmstad — model 55% / 25% / 20%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.82 · 4.00 · 5.00. Edge: IF Brommapojkarna

Monday 23 November — 2 matches

18:00 UTC Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg — model 63% / 22% / 15%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.59 · 4.55 · 6.67. One-sided: Hammarby FF
18:00 UTC Orgryte IS vs Kalmar FF — model 44% / 27% / 29%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.27 · 3.70 · 3.45. Evenly matched

Saturday 28 November — 1 match

12:00 UTC Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ostersunds FK — model 47% / 28% / 25%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.13 · 3.57 · 4.00. Edge: Varbergs BoIS FC

Sunday 29 November — 8 matches

14:00 UTC Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken — model 47% / 26% / 27%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.13 · 3.85 · 3.70. Evenly matched
14:00 UTC IFK Goteborg vs Sirius — model 33% / 26% / 41%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.03 · 3.85 · 2.44. Edge: Sirius
14:00 UTC IF Elfsborg vs Gais — model 39% / 29% / 32%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.56 · 3.45 · 3.13. Evenly matched
14:00 UTC Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm — model 29% / 26% / 45%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.45 · 3.85 · 2.22. Edge: AIK Stockholm
14:00 UTC Malmo FF vs IF Brommapojkarna — model 47% / 26% / 27%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.13 · 3.85 · 3.70. Evenly matched
14:00 UTC Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF — model 30% / 30% / 40%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.33 · 3.33 · 2.50. Edge: Mjallby AIF
14:00 UTC Degerfors IF vs Orgryte IS — model 35% / 27% / 38%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.86 · 3.70 · 2.63. Tight game · draw in reach
14:00 UTC Vasteras SK FK vs Hammarby FF — model 24% / 27% / 49%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 4.17 · 3.70 · 2.04. One-sided: Hammarby FF

Last round: the model's hits and misses

6–8 November: the model called the result of 2 of 8 matches. Across all 124 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 47% of results.

Hammarby FF 4–1 IF Elfsborg — the model said 53% / 26% / 21%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
Degerfors IF 1–2 Gais — the model said 23% / 29% / 48%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
Orgryte IS 0–0 Vasteras SK FK — the model said 30% / 25% / 45%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
IFK Goteborg 0–0 Malmo FF — the model said 35% / 27% / 38%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
Halmstad 2–1 Djurgardens IF — the model said 13% / 22% / 65%, most likely 0-2: result missed.
AIK Stockholm 3–2 BK Hacken — the model said 31% / 24% / 45%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
IF Brommapojkarna 0–0 Mjallby AIF — the model said 46% / 26% / 28%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
Kalmar FF 1–0 Sirius — the model said 21% / 25% / 54%, most likely 0-2: result missed.

Allsvenskan so far

Top of the table

1. Hammarby FF — 58 pts from 28 (18W 4D 6L, goals 60–23)
2. Sirius — 58 pts from 28 (18W 4D 6L, goals 58–35)
3. Djurgardens IF — 52 pts from 28 (16W 4D 8L, goals 56–27)
4. BK Hacken — 49 pts from 28 (13W 10D 5L, goals 50–33)
5. IF Elfsborg — 46 pts from 28 (12W 10D 6L, goals 42–31)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 16 matches left: Hammarby FF 78.8%, Sirius 21.1%, Djurgardens IF 0.1%.

Leading scorers: P. Abraham (Hammarby FF) 17 goals, K. Lien (Djurgardens IF) 16 goals, R. Ure (Sirius) 15 goals.