Internacional vs Flamengo Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Internacional 1-1 Flamengo.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Internacional, 22% draw, 47% Flamengo — fair odds of 3.23, 4.55 and 2.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Flamengo at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Internacional vs Flamengo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23Matheus CunhaG
- 15Bruno GomesD
- 25Gabriel MercadoD
- 3Guillermo MaripánD
- 28VitinhoM
- 5Rodrigo VillagraM
- 8Bruno HenriqueM
- 6Matheus BahiaM
- 7Johan CarboneroF
- 26Alexandro BernabeiF
- 10Alan PatrickF
- 18Jose JuninhoD
- 27Paulinho PaulaM
- 30Calebe GonçalvesM
- 4Félix TorresD
- 9AlerrandroF
- 12AnthoniG
- 46Pedro KauãD
- 53Luiz FelipeD
- 31AllexM
- 1Agustín RossiG
- 2Guillermo VarelaD
- 44VitãoD
- 4Léo PereiraD
- 26Alex SandroD
- 52Evertton AraujoM
- 21JorginhoM
- 15Jorge CarrascalM
- 10Giorgian de ArrascaetaM
- 16Samuel LinoM
- 9PedroF
- 13DaniloD
- 5Erick PulgarM
- 27Bruno HenriqueF
- 22Emerson RoyalD
- 18Nicolás de la CruzM
- 42AndrewG
- 6Ayrton LucasD
- 3Léo OrtizD
- 8Saúl ÑíguezM
Form going into Internacional vs Flamengo
Internacional
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Atletico Paranaense25 July 2026
- L1-2Cruzeiro23 July 2026
Flamengo
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Sao Paulo26 July 2026
- W4-0away to Chapecoense23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Internacional | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 38 |
| 1 | Flamengo | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 71 | 29 | +42 | 76 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Internacional vs Flamengo
- 4 February 2026Flamengo 1–1 InternacionalSerie A
- 21 August 2025Internacional 0–2 FlamengoCONMEBOL Libertadores
- 17 August 2025Internacional 1–3 FlamengoSerie A
- 14 August 2025Flamengo 1–0 InternacionalCONMEBOL Libertadores
- 30 March 2025Flamengo 1–1 InternacionalSerie A
- 1 December 2024Flamengo 3–2 InternacionalSerie A
Leading scorers: Internacional and Flamengo
Internacional
GoalsAssists
- J. Carbonero74
Flamengo
GoalsAssists
- Pedro206
- Samuel Lino129
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Internacional and Flamengo drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Flamengo at 47% and given a draw 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Vitinho 27' for Internacional, Samuel Lino 79' for Flamengo. On expected goals it finished 1.38–1.45.