29 July 2026, 20:00 UTC

Sao Paulo vs Santos Serie A prediction & result

Estadio Do MorumBIS, Sao Paulo
Referee: M. Delgado
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Sao Paulo 1-2 Santos.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Sao Paulo, 18% draw, 28% Santos — fair odds of 1.85, 5.56 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sao Paulo at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sao Paulo0%Draw8%Santos92%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Ryan Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos Silva
31'
33'
Lucas Veríssimo
⚽Luciano (pen)
34'
36'
⚽Gabriel Barbosaassist: Gonzalo Escobar
Luciano
41'
45'
Christian Oliva
45'
🔁Álvaro Barrealout: Philippe Coutinho
45'
🔁Vinicius Moreira de Limaout: Gustavo Henrique
54'
🔁Arthur Meloout: Gabriel Menino
54'
⚽Gabriel Barbosaassist: Everton
🔁Ryan Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos Silvaout: Gustavo Santana
64'
🔁Damian Bobadillaout: Danielzinho
64'
🔁Rafael Tolóiout: Newton
64'
🔁Iago Amaral Borduchiout: Wendell
67'
🔁Pedro Limaout: Victor Sá
73'
76'
Everton
76'
🔁Evertonout: Rony
86'
🔁Gabriel Barbosaout: Thaciano

Match stats — Sao Paulo vs Santos

60%Possession40%
20Shots9
8On target4
14Corners1

Line-ups

Sao Paulo 4-3-3
  • 31Carlos CoronelG
  • 32Pedro LimaD
  • 5R. ArboledaD
  • 2R. TolóiD
  • 12IagoD
  • 29Pablo MaiaM
  • 8Marcos AntônioM
  • 16D. BobadillaM
  • 37ArturF
  • 10LucianoF
  • 49Ryan FranciscoF
Substitutes
  • 17André SilvaF
  • 94DanielzinhoM
  • 11FerreiraF
  • 19Lucas RamonD
  • 54Osorio LuisD
  • 28NewtonM
  • 46Pedro FerreiraM
  • 35SabinoD
  • 43G. SantanaF
Coach: Dorival Júnior
Santos 4-2-3-1
  • 1DiógenesG
  • 23RodineiD
  • 4Lucas VeríssimoD
  • 15Willian ArãoD
  • 31G. EscobarD
  • 28C. OlivaM
  • 6ArthurM
  • 22Á. BarrealM
  • 45LimaM
  • 7EvertonM
  • 9Gabriel BarbosaF
Substitutes
  • 34João PauloG
  • 5João SchmidtM
  • 18Igor ViniciusD
  • 81S. PierriM
  • 38Rafael GonzagaD
  • 33RonyF
  • 16ThacianoM
  • 48Gustavo Henrique PereiraM
  • 25Gabriel MeninoM
Coach: Cuca

Form going into Sao Paulo vs Santos

Sao Paulo

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Flamengo26 July 2026
  • L1-2Atletico Paranaense23 July 2026

Santos

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2Chapecoense25 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Sao Paulo34128143939044
9Santos341211115049+147

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sao Paulo vs Santos

  • 4 February 2026Santos 1–1 Sao PauloSerie A
  • 31 January 2026Sao Paulo 2–0 SantosPaulista - A1
  • 21 September 2025Santos 1–0 Sao PauloSerie A
  • 20 April 2025Sao Paulo 2–1 SantosSerie A
  • 1 February 2025Santos 3–1 Sao PauloPaulista - A1

The full Sao Paulo vs Santos record →

Leading scorers: Sao Paulo and Santos

Sao Paulo

GoalsAssists

  • J. Calleri102
  • Luciano91

Santos

GoalsAssists

  • Gabriel Barbosa154
  • Neymar83

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.