8 September 2026, 15:00 UTC

Lahti vs Mariehamn Finnish Premier League prediction & result

Lahden Stadion, Lahti
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Lahti 2-1 Mariehamn.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Lahti, 32% draw, 28% Mariehamn — fair odds of 2.50, 3.13 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lahti at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lahti97%Draw3%Mariehamn0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Aaron Lindholmassist: Tofol Montiel
38'
60'
🔁Jelle van der Heydenout: Leo Andersson
61'
🔁Viktor Widlundout: Adam Stroud
61'
🔁Arvid Bergvikout: Marlo Hyvonen
🔁Martim Ferreiraout: Justus Ojanen
64'
🔁Tofol Montielout: Erik Andersson
64'
65'
⚽Adam Stroud
71'
Noah Nurmi
🔁Topias Inkinenout: Vaino Vehkonen
75'
80'
Foster gyamfi
Romaric Yapi
81'
🔁Aaron Lindholmout: Amir Belabid
83'
🔁Momodou Sarrout: Daniel Heikkinen
83'
⚽Justus Ojanenassist: Vaino Vehkonen
87'
88'
🔁Tuomas Koivistoout: Aaro Soiniemi
José Müller
89'
Vaino Vehkonen
90+2'

Match stats — Lahti vs Mariehamn

56%Possession44%
13Shots9
7On target3
2Corners9

Line-ups

Lahti 4-3-3
  • 31O. MaukonenG
  • 27R. YapiD
  • 5NícolasD
  • 4J. MullerD
  • 25T. InkinenD
  • 8Tòfol MontielM
  • 18Y. CassubieM
  • 10O. KoskinenM
  • 77M. SarrF
  • 9A. LindholmF
  • 11Martim FerreiraF
Substitutes
  • 12A. HakalaG
  • 6V. VehkonenD
  • 7D. HeikkinenM
  • 14E. AnderssonM
  • 20J. OjanenF
  • 28A. KabashiM
  • 17A. BelabidF
  • 41Aleksi PaalanenF
  • 44L. JarvinenF
Coach: Gonçalo Pereira
Mariehamn 4-4-2
  • 1K. LundG
  • 5T. KoivistoD
  • 2N. NurmiD
  • 53F. GyamfiD
  • 31Samson NgulubeD
  • 23V. WidlundM
  • 8J. van der HeydenM
  • 20E. PatutM
  • 14Arvid BergvikM
  • 11J. SvedbergF
  • 19T. JakobsenF
Substitutes
  • 26M. JanssonM
  • 18A. StroudD
  • 16A. HuttunenM
  • 3A. SoiniemiD
  • 12O. HeinoG
  • 43L. AnderssonF
  • 64M. HyvönenM
Coach: R. Björknesjö

Form going into Lahti vs Mariehamn

Lahti

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to VPS31 August 2026
  • W2-1away to SJK21 August 2026
  • L1-2KuPS16 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Inter Turku9 August 2026

Mariehamn

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0FF Jaro31 August 2026
  • W4-2away to KuPS23 August 2026
  • W2-0SJK15 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Ilves9 August 2026

What these results say

  • Lahti scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Mariehamn won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Mariehamn scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Mariehamn had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Lahti vs Mariehamn

  • 20 July 2026Mariehamn 0–2 LahtiFinnish Premier League
  • 26 May 2026Mariehamn 0–1 LahtiSuomen Cup
  • 10 May 2026Lahti 1–1 MariehamnFinnish Premier League
  • 5 March 2026Mariehamn 4–0 LahtiLeague Cup
  • 19 September 2024Lahti 2–1 MariehamnFinnish Premier League

Leading scorers: Lahti and Mariehamn

Lahti

GoalsAssists

  • Martim Ferreira51
  • O. Koskinen32

Mariehamn

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lahti beat Mariehamn 2–1. The model had made a win for Lahti its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Aaron Lindholm 38' for Lahti, Adam Stroud 65' for Mariehamn, Justus Ojanen 87' for Lahti.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.