Gnistan vs KuPS Finnish Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Gnistan 1-1 KuPS.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Gnistan, 24% draw, 24% KuPS — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Gnistan at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gnistan vs KuPS
Line-ups
- 1O. VirtanenG
- 24P. GnanouD
- 67A. ObileyeD
- 19B. MilovanovD
- 14S. EremenkoM
- 31A. JouhiM
- 15G. EuropaeusM
- 12E. Arko-MensahM
- 7A. AtarahF
- 10J. LatonenF
- 23S. YlätupaF
- 11D. PérezF
- 27O. HannulaM
- 25Noah RossiD
- 40J. OjalaD
- 2B. DahlströmD
- 32Niklas LindströmG
- 3RuxiD
- 1J. KreidlG
- 6S. SavolainenD
- 33T. HämäläinenD
- 4K. AdamsD
- 25C. AntwiD
- 10V. GascM
- 8P. PennanenM
- 34J. EskesenM
- 22S. TourayM
- 15A. AikiM
- 20P. ParzyszekF
- 11J. MorenoF
- 9G. EngvallF
- 14S. PasanenM
- 21J. Luyeye-LutumbaF
- 13N. KujasaloM
- 16T. JyryM
- 29A. PuukkoD
- 23A. LötjönenD
- 12H. RiihimäkiG
Form going into Gnistan vs KuPS
Gnistan
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Turku PS31 August 2026
- W3-2away to HJK Helsinki23 August 2026
- W3-2Ilves17 August 2026
- D2-2away to SJK7 August 2026
KuPS
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Inter Turku31 August 2026
- W1-0Shamrock Rovers27 August 2026
- L2-4Mariehamn23 August 2026
- D1-1away to Shamrock Rovers20 August 2026
- W2-1away to Lahti16 August 2026
What these results say
- Gnistan went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Gnistan scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Gnistan conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- KuPS scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- KuPS conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Finnish Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Gnistan | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 52 | 47 | +5 | 46 |
| 3 | KuPS | 32 | 14 | 11 | 7 | 46 | 33 | +13 | 53 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gnistan vs KuPS
- 1 August 2026Gnistan 0–1 KuPSFinnish Premier League
- 11 April 2026KuPS 1–0 GnistanFinnish Premier League
- 30 October 2025KuPS 1–1 GnistanFinnish Premier League
- 27 September 2025Gnistan 0–4 KuPSFinnish Premier League
- 1 July 2025KuPS 6–2 GnistanFinnish Premier League
Leading scorers: Gnistan and KuPS
Gnistan
GoalsAssists
- A. Akinyemi50
- A. Jouhi31
KuPS
GoalsAssists
- J. Moreno71
- B. Armah40
- P. Pennanen33
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Gnistan and KuPS drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Gnistan at 52% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Piotr Parzyszek 39' for KuPS, Bogdan Milovanov 48' for Gnistan.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.