8 September 2026, 15:00 UTC

VPS vs AC Oulu Finnish Premier League prediction & result

Lemonsoft Stadion, Vaasa
Full time1 – 0

Final score: VPS 1-0 AC Oulu.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% VPS, 28% draw, 39% AC Oulu — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

AC Oulu at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

VPS95%Draw5%AC Oulu0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Kevin Kouassivi-Benissan
8'
45'
⚽Rasmus Karjalainen (pen)
🔁Joonas Vahteraout: Xavier Odhiambo
45'
58'
🔁Niklas Jokelainenout: Lamine Ghezali
Yassin Daoussi
59'
🔁Yassin Daoussiout: Antti-Ville Raisanen
66'
🔁Simon Lindholmout: Casper Holmelund
66'
74'
🔁Rasmus Karjalainenout: Camilo Jose·Triana Fragozo
74'
🔁Santeri Silanderout: Otto Kemppainen
78'
Markus Arsalo
Lassana Mané
79'
85'
🔁Markus Arsaloout: Julius Paananen
🔁Paulo Limaout: Razak Simpson
85'
🔁Xavier Odhiamboout: Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi
89'
Kevin Kouassivi-Benissan
90'
Casper Holmelund
90+2'

Match stats — VPS vs AC Oulu

41%Possession59%
7Shots16
2On target5
2Corners8

Line-ups

VPS 3-4-1-2
  • 41M. JallohG
  • 23M. NiemiD
  • 6E. OkerekeD
  • 19M. HaukiojaD
  • 24Y. DaoussiM
  • 2L. ManeM
  • 8Paulo Jorge Barros Pimentel LimaM
  • 7J. TurfkruierM
  • 27K. Kouassivi-BenissanM
  • 14S. LindholmF
  • 30J. VahteraF
Substitutes
  • 21Arnold Adu-BoahenD
  • 26R. ForsbackaM
  • 9C. HolmelundF
  • 20X. OdhiamboF
  • 34A. RäisänenM
  • 3Razak SimpsonM
  • 13Oluwaseyi OgunniyiF
  • 17Dren TërrnavaM
  • 12L. VäyrynenG
Coach: J. Nuorela
AC Oulu 4-3-3
  • 13Miguel SantosG
  • 29S. SilanderD
  • 5M. PitkänenD
  • 66J. PirinenD
  • 18Adramane CassamáD
  • 21I. MendolinM
  • 25M. ArsaloM
  • 22T. KaukuaM
  • 14N. JokelainenF
  • 9R. RiskiF
  • 7R. KarjalainenF
Substitutes
  • 2S. SipolaD
  • 6J. PaananenM
  • 8M. OjalaM
  • 3J. LietsaD
  • 16O. KemppainenD
  • 27E. KallioF
  • 11L. GhezaliF
  • 64Tobias BackmanG
  • 10C. TrianaF
Coach: M. Isokangas

Form going into VPS vs AC Oulu

VPS

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1Lahti31 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Ilves22 August 2026
  • L1-3Turku PS14 August 2026
  • W3-1away to FF Jaro8 August 2026

AC Oulu

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0SJK31 August 2026
  • W1-0away to FF Jaro22 August 2026
  • L2-3Inter Turku16 August 2026
  • L0-1HJK Helsinki9 August 2026

What these results say

  • VPS scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • VPS conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • AC Oulu failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for AC Oulu had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Finnish Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6VPS32117143243-1140
4AC Oulu32146124140+148

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: VPS vs AC Oulu

  • 23 June 2026VPS 5–1 AC OuluFinnish Premier League
  • 18 April 2026AC Oulu 1–0 VPSFinnish Premier League
  • 24 January 2026VPS 1–4 AC OuluLeague Cup
  • 4 October 2025AC Oulu 2–0 VPSFinnish Premier League
  • 28 June 2025AC Oulu 2–1 VPSFinnish Premier League

Leading scorers: VPS and AC Oulu

VPS

GoalsAssists

  • L. Smyth50

AC Oulu

GoalsAssists

  • R. Karjalainen56

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

VPS beat AC Oulu 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for AC Oulu at 39% and given a win for VPS 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Kevin Kouassivi-Benissan 8' for VPS.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.