30 July 2026, 18:30 UTC

Panathinaikos vs Paks UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Olympic Stadium of Athens, Athens
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Panathinaikos 2-2 Paks.

Before kick-off the model made it 24% Panathinaikos, 21% draw, 55% Paks — fair odds of 4.17, 4.76 and 1.82.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

The tie

Second leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: Paks 1–2 Panathinaikos (23 Jul) →

Panathinaikos went through 4–3 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

Paks at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Panathinaikos4%Draw90%Paks6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
Andor Lapu
35'
⚽M. Petoassist: K. Horvath
⚽A. Jagusic
44'
45+2'
János Szabó
46'
🔁A. Lapuout: B. Lenzser
57'
⚽M. Gyorfi
🔁A. Toubaout: R. Van Drongelen
61'
🔁A. Zarouryout: F. Pellistri
61'
🔁A. Jagusicout: E. Rastoder
66'
68'
Kevin Horváth
72'
🔁J. Szalaiout: D. Bode
73'
🔁M. Petoout: B. Toth
73'
🔁K. Horvathout: G. Gyurkits
🔁A. Gnezda Cerinout: P. Chirivella
76'
🔁S. Andinoout: V. Taborda
76'
85'
🔁M. Gyorfiout: B. Balogh
⚽E. Rastoderassist: S. de Vrij
85'
Triantafyllos Tsapras
89'

Match stats — Panathinaikos vs Paks

71%Possession29%
20Shots8
8On target4
8Corners5

Line-ups

Panathinaikos 4-3-3
  • 1I. PenaG
  • 19T. TsaprasD
  • 6S. de VrijD
  • 5A. ToubaD
  • 77G. KyriakopoulosD
  • 8A. JagusicM
  • 22E. CamaraM
  • 16A. Gnezda CerinM
  • 11A. ZarouryF
  • 7A. Tetteh
  • 10S. AndinoF
Substitutes
  • 12L. ChavesG
  • 70K. Kotsaris
  • 4P. ChirivellaM
  • 55R. Van DrongelenD
  • 20V. TabordaF
  • 18S. KontourisM
  • 56V. LavdasD
  • 28F. PellistriM
  • 74E. RastoderF
Coach: Jacob Neestrup
Paks 3-4-2-1
  • 1A. KovacsikG
  • 12G. VasD
  • 30J. SzaboD
  • 20M. ZekeD
  • 6M. Gyorfi
  • 22J. WindeckerM
  • 21K. PappM
  • 4A. LapuM
  • 17M. PetoF
  • 19K. HorvathF
  • 7J. Szalai
Substitutes
  • 25G. RaczG
  • 28M. GyetvanG
  • 13D. BodeF
  • 8B. BaloghM
  • 5B. VecseiM
  • 24B. LenzserD
  • 29B. TothF
  • 26M. SzekszardiD
  • 11H. KuzmaD
Coach: Gyorgy Bognar

Form going into Panathinaikos vs Paks

Panathinaikos

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to Paks23 July 2026

Paks

All competitions we cover

  • W4-2Ferencvarosi TC26 July 2026
  • L1-2Panathinaikos23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Panathinaikos and Paks in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
2PanathinaikosUEFA Europa Conference League330093+69
5PaksNB I136252422+220

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: UEFA Europa Conference League · NB I

Head-to-head: Panathinaikos vs Paks

  • 23 July 2026Paks 1–2 PanathinaikosUEFA Europa Conference League

Leading scorers: Panathinaikos and Paks

Panathinaikos

GoalsAssists

  • C. Dessers60

Paks

GoalsAssists

  • M. Pető61
  • J. Szalai61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Panathinaikos and Paks drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Paks at 55% and given a draw 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: M. Peto 35' for Paks, A. Jagusic 44' for Panathinaikos, M. Gyorfi 57' for Paks, E. Rastoder 85' for Panathinaikos.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.