Conference League predictions

Thursday 26 November — 18 matches

• 15:30 UTC Kairat Almaty vs Mjallby AIF — model 40% / 32% / 28%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.50 · 3.13 · 3.57. Evenly matched
• 17:45 UTC Brighton vs Universitatea Craiova — model 78% / 16% / 6%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.28 · 6.25 · 16.67. One-sided: Brighton
• 17:45 UTC Ajax vs FC Thun — model 76% / 15% / 9%, most likely 3-0, fair odds 1.32 · 6.67 · 11.11. One-sided: Ajax
• 17:45 UTC Heart of Midlothian vs Monaco — model 17% / 22% / 61%, most likely 0-2, fair odds 5.88 · 4.55 · 1.64. One-sided: Monaco
• 17:45 UTC Brann vs Aarhus — model 50% / 27% / 23%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.00 · 3.70 · 4.35. Evenly matched
• 17:45 UTC FK Jablonec vs FC Lugano — model 47% / 27% / 26%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.13 · 3.70 · 3.85. Evenly matched
• 17:45 UTC Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Lincoln Red Imps FC — model 55% / 26% / 19%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.82 · 3.85 · 5.26. Edge: Egnatia Rrogozhinë
• 17:45 UTC Pafos vs FC Midtjylland — model 37% / 30% / 33%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.70 · 3.33 · 3.03. Evenly matched
• 17:45 UTC FC Iberia 1999 vs Getafe — model 23% / 29% / 48%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 4.35 · 3.45 · 2.08. One-sided: Getafe
• 17:45 UTC Kauno Žalgiris vs Riga — model 30% / 28% / 42%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.33 · 3.57 · 2.38. Edge: Riga
• 20:00 UTC SC Freiburg vs Twente — model 53% / 25% / 22%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.89 · 4.00 · 4.55. Evenly matched
• 20:00 UTC SC Braga vs KuPS — model 77% / 17% / 6%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.30 · 5.88 · 16.67. One-sided: SC Braga
• 20:00 UTC FC Nordsjaelland vs Panathinaikos — model 39% / 29% / 32%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.56 · 3.45 · 3.13. Evenly matched
• 20:00 UTC HNK Hajduk Split vs St. Truiden — model 31% / 28% / 41%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.23 · 3.57 · 2.44. Edge: St. Truiden
• 20:00 UTC Gent vs FK Crvena Zvezda — model 53% / 30% / 17%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.89 · 3.33 · 5.88. Edge: Gent
• 20:00 UTC CSKA Sofia vs Trabzonspor — model 27% / 27% / 46%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.70 · 3.70 · 2.17. One-sided: Trabzonspor
• 20:00 UTC Inter Club d'Escaldes vs FC Copenhagen — model 14% / 20% / 66%, most likely 0-2, fair odds 7.14 · 5.00 · 1.52. One-sided: FC Copenhagen
• 20:00 UTC Borac Banja Luka vs Atalanta — model 16% / 24% / 60%, most likely 0-2, fair odds 6.25 · 4.17 · 1.67. One-sided: Atalanta

Last round: the model's hits and misses

5 November: the model called the result of 11 of 18 matches, 2 of them to the exact score. Across all 260 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 52% of results.

• Aarhus 0–0 SC Braga — the model said 25% / 29% / 46%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
• Atalanta 1–1 Kairat Almaty — the model said 77% / 16% / 7%, most likely 2-0: result missed.
• FK Crvena Zvezda 2–1 Inter Club d'Escaldes — the model said 73% / 17% / 10%, most likely 2-0: result correct.
• KuPS 0–0 Gent — the model said 17% / 30% / 53%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
• Lincoln Red Imps FC 1–0 HNK Hajduk Split — the model said 26% / 26% / 48%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
• FC Midtjylland 1–6 Ajax — the model said 46% / 26% / 28%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
• Mjallby AIF 2–0 Borac Banja Luka — the model said 45% / 29% / 26%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
• FC Thun 3–1 Heart of Midlothian — the model said 46% / 26% / 28%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
• Trabzonspor 0–1 SC Freiburg — the model said 33% / 27% / 40%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
• FC Copenhagen 2–1 FC Iberia 1999 — the model said 80% / 14% / 6%, most likely 3-0: result correct.
• Getafe 0–1 Brighton — the model said 18% / 27% / 55%, most likely 0-1: exact scoreline.
• FC Lugano 3–0 Kauno Žalgiris — the model said 76% / 16% / 8%, most likely 2-0: result correct.
• Monaco 2–0 FC Nordsjaelland — the model said 65% / 21% / 14%, most likely 2-0: exact scoreline.
• Panathinaikos 2–1 CSKA Sofia — the model said 63% / 23% / 14%, most likely 2-0: result correct.
• Riga 1–1 FK Jablonec — the model said 31% / 28% / 41%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
• St. Truiden 1–1 Brann — the model said 52% / 26% / 22%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
• Twente 3–1 Pafos — the model said 57% / 26% / 17%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
• Universitatea Craiova 2–0 Egnatia Rrogozhinë — the model said 58% / 25% / 17%, most likely 1-0: result correct.

Conference League so far

Playoff round

• Atalanta went through against Hapoel Tel Aviv, 1–0 on aggregate.
• SC Braga went through against Austria Vienna, 2–0 on aggregate.
• Pafos went through against Dinamo Tirana, 5–3 on aggregate.
• Inter Club d'Escaldes went through against Drita, on penalties after 2–2.
• Gent went through against Hibernian, 3–2 on aggregate.
• Getafe went through against FK Partizan, 4–3 on aggregate.
• Monaco went through against Gornik Zabrze, 7–3 on aggregate.
• HNK Hajduk Split went through against Raków Częstochowa, 5–4 on aggregate.
• Heart of Midlothian went through against Rapid Vienna, on penalties after 3–3.
• FC Copenhagen went through against Inter Turku, 4–1 on aggregate.
• Lincoln Red Imps FC went through against Larne, 3–2 on aggregate.
• FC Lugano went through against Maccabi Tel Aviv, 3–2 on aggregate.
• FC Midtjylland went through against HNK Rijeka, 6–1 on aggregate.
• SC Freiburg went through against Motherwell, 7–2 on aggregate.
• FC Nordsjaelland went through against FC St. Gallen, 4–2 on aggregate.
• Panathinaikos went through against Hradec Králové, 4–3 on aggregate.
• Brann went through against PAOK, 4–3 on aggregate.
• FK Jablonec went through against Rangers, on penalties after 1–1.
• KuPS went through against Shamrock Rovers, 2–1 on aggregate.
• Ajax went through against FC Sion, 9–5 on aggregate.
• Brighton went through against Tromso, 4–0 on aggregate.
• Twente went through against Qarabag, 4–2 on aggregate.
• Borac Banja Luka went through against Vikingur Reykjavik, 6–2 on aggregate.
• Riga went through against KI Klaksvik, 2–1 on aggregate.

3rd Qualifying Round

• Hapoel Tel Aviv went through against GKS Katowice, 3–2 on aggregate.
• Austria Vienna went through against Beitar Jerusalem, on penalties after 3–3.
• SC Braga went through against Dinamo Minsk, 1–0 on aggregate.
• Dinamo Tirana went through against Auda, 4–1 on aggregate.
• Drita went through against Tre Fiori, 9–1 on aggregate.
• Inter Club d'Escaldes went through against Flora Tallinn, 6–0 on aggregate.
• Gent went through against IFK Goteborg, 2–1 on aggregate.
• Hibernian went through against Shkendija, 2–1 on aggregate.
• FK Partizan went through against FK Tobol Kostanay, 5–1 on aggregate.
• Raków Częstochowa went through against Hammarby FF, 1–0 on aggregate.
• HNK Hajduk Split went through against FK Zalgiris Vilnius, 9–2 on aggregate.
• Rapid Vienna went through against Paide, 6–1 on aggregate.
• FC Copenhagen went through against Debreceni VSC, 8–1 on aggregate.
• Inter Turku went through against FC Vaduz, 4–3 on aggregate.
• FC Lugano went through against NSI Runavik, 4–2 on aggregate.
• FC Midtjylland went through against Bohemians, 5–2 on aggregate.
• HNK Rijeka went through against Ilves, 2–1 on aggregate.
• Motherwell went through against HJK Helsinki, 3–1 on aggregate.
• FC St. Gallen went through against Sheriff Tiraspol, 8–2 on aggregate.
• FC Nordsjaelland went through against Valur Reykjavik, 7–0 on aggregate.
• Panathinaikos went through against CSKA 1948, 3–2 on aggregate.
• Brann went through against Apollon Limassol, 4–3 on aggregate.
• FK Jablonec went through against Rīgas FS, 4–1 on aggregate.
• Ajax went through against Shelbourne, 5–3 on aggregate.
• FC Sion went through against FC Noah, 4–3 on aggregate.
• Tromso went through against CFR 1907 Cluj, 7–1 on aggregate.
• Qarabag went through against Dynamo Kyiv, 2–1 on aggregate.
• Twente went through against Dunajska Streda, 9–3 on aggregate.
• Borac Banja Luka went through against ML Vitebsk, on penalties after 1–1.
• Riga went through against Gyori ETO FC, 2–1 on aggregate.

2nd Qualifying Round

• Hapoel Tel Aviv went through against Ludogorets, 4–2 on aggregate.
• GKS Katowice went through against Žilina, 4–3 on aggregate.
• Beitar Jerusalem went through against AEK Larnaca, on penalties after 3–3.
• Austria Vienna went through against FK Liepaja, 5–1 on aggregate.
• SC Braga went through against Železničar Pančevo, 5–0 on aggregate.
• Dinamo Minsk went through against Neftchi Baku, 4–3 on aggregate.
• Auda went through against FCSB, 7–3 on aggregate.
• Dinamo Tirana went through against Aluminij, 4–1 on aggregate.
• Drita went through against Floriana, 3–2 on aggregate.
• Flora Tallinn went through against The New Saints, on penalties after 1–1.
• IFK Goteborg went through against FC Levadia Tallinn, 4–3 on aggregate.
• Gent went through against LNZ Cherkasy, on penalties after 0–0.
• Hibernian went through against Malisheva, 4–3 on aggregate.
• Shkendija went through against Bravo, 4–3 on aggregate.
• FK Tobol Kostanay went through against Panevėžys, on penalties after 2–2.
• FK Partizan went through against UNA Strassen, 5–0 on aggregate.
• Raków Częstochowa went through against Valletta FC, 7–1 on aggregate.
• FK Zalgiris Vilnius went through against Dinamo Tbilisi, 7–5 on aggregate.
• Rapid Vienna went through against FC Santa Coloma, 9–3 on aggregate.
• Paide went through against Zira, 2–1 on aggregate.
• FC Copenhagen went through against Polessya, 5–4 on aggregate.
• Debreceni VSC went through against Pyunik Yerevan, 1–0 on aggregate.
• Inter Turku went through against Başakşehir, 3–1 on aggregate.
• FC Vaduz went through against Atlètic Club d'Escaldes, 6–0 on aggregate.
• FC Lugano went through against Dukagjini, 6–1 on aggregate.
• NSI Runavik went through against Koper, on penalties after 2–2.
• Bohemians went through against Ballkani, on penalties after 4–4.
• HNK Rijeka went through against Derry City, 2–0 on aggregate.
• Ilves went through against Stjarnan, on penalties after 1–1.
• HJK Helsinki went through against Coleraine FC, 8–0 on aggregate.
• Motherwell went through against HB Torshavn, 5–0 on aggregate.
• FC Nordsjaelland went through against Gais, 6–1 on aggregate.
• Valur Reykjavik went through against Zrinjski, 3–2 on aggregate.
• CSKA 1948 went through against Spartak Trnava, on penalties after 0–0.
• Panathinaikos went through against Paks, 4–3 on aggregate.
• Apollon Limassol went through against Dila, 7–0 on aggregate.
• Brann went through against Universitatea Cluj, 5–3 on aggregate.
• FK Jablonec went through against NK Varazdin, 4–3 on aggregate.
• Rīgas FS went through against Vestri, 5–2 on aggregate.
• Shelbourne went through against Kalju Nomme, 6–4 on aggregate.
• Ajax went through against Vojvodina, 8–2 on aggregate.
• FC Noah went through against Zimbru, 3–2 on aggregate.
• FC Sion went through against Bate Borisov, 5–1 on aggregate.
• CFR 1907 Cluj went through against Alashkert, 4–1 on aggregate.
• Dunajska Streda went through against Velež, 4–0 on aggregate.
• Borac Banja Luka went through against Petrocub, 6–3 on aggregate.
• ML Vitebsk went through against Sutjeska, 5–1 on aggregate.
• Gyori ETO FC went through against Atert Bissen, 7–3 on aggregate.
• Riga went through against Vardar Skopje, 8–4 on aggregate.

Leading scorers: K. Behrens (FC Lugano) 7 goals, Winsley Boteli Mokango (FC Sion) 7 goals, T. Arokodare (Ajax) 6 goals.